2027 ഡിസംബറോടെ ഇന്ത്യൻ രൂപയുടെ മൂല്യം ഡോളറിനെതിരെ 100-102 നിലവാരത്തിലേക്കും, 2028-ൽ 104-106 വരെയും താഴുമെന്ന് ആക്സിസ് ബാങ്ക് റിപ്പോർട്ട് വ്യക്തമാക്കുന്നു. വിദേശ നിക്ഷേപങ്ങളുടെ ഒഴുക്ക്, കരുതൽ ശേഖരം വർദ്ധിപ്പിക്കേണ്ടതിന്റെ ആവശ്യം, ബാഹ്യ സാമ്പത്തിക സമ്മർദ്ദങ്ങൾ എന്നിവ രൂപയുടെ മൂല്യത്തകർച്ചയ്ക്ക് കാരണമാകുമെന്ന് റിപ്പോർട്ടിൽ പറയുന്നു.
The Indian rupee could weaken to 100–102 against the US dollar by December 2027 and further depreciate to 104–106 by December 2028, according to Axis Bank Research. The projections suggest that the currency's recent recovery may offer only temporary relief, with structural external-sector pressures, capital outflows and the need to rebuild foreign exchange reserves likely to keep the rupee under pressure.
In its November 3 report, The Middle (Kingdom) Path, Axis Bank Research maintained its earlier currency forecasts, projecting USD/INR at 97–99 by March 2027 and 98–100 by June 2027.
The report suggests that the rupee may need to weaken another 5–10% to reach its estimated fair value, despite its real effective exchange rate declining to levels last seen before 2014.
Why does Axis Bank expect further depreciation?
Axis Bank Research identifies persistent capital outflows and pressure on India's external financing position as major concerns.
The report notes that sustained intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reduced effective foreign exchange reserves, even as the central bank attempts to contain currency volatility.
It argues that rebuilding reserves will remain a priority, potentially limiting the rupee's ability to appreciate significantly even if foreign capital inflows improve.
The report also highlights monthly outflows of approximately $2–3 billion under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme and around $3 billion through overseas direct investment.
However, it cautions that restrictions on these transactions may provide limited relief against broader external financing pressures.
Why has the rupee recovered recently?
Despite the bearish longer-term outlook, the rupee has appreciated 37 paise against the dollar over the past week, supported by improving foreign portfolio investment, easing US Treasury yields and a relatively stable dollar.
According to NSDL data cited in the latest market inputs, net foreign portfolio inflows totalled approximately $2 billion over the past week, while November inflows stood at around $800 million.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has moderated to approximately 4.9%, reducing pressure on emerging-market currencies.
Crude oil prices have also eased, although Brent crude continues to trade near $106 per barrel, remaining a concern for India's import bill.
What are the key levels to watch?
Technical indicators suggest that the rupee faces immediate resistance around 94.40–94.20 against the dollar.
A sustained move beyond 94.20 could strengthen the currency towards 93.50.
However, failure to cross these levels could trigger renewed weakness towards 95.25–95.80.
The upcoming US midterm election results could also increase short-term currency volatility.
What does a weaker rupee mean for consumers?
A depreciating rupee increases the cost of dollar-denominated expenses, including overseas education, international travel and imported goods.
For example, a $50,000 overseas education expense would cost ₹47.5 lakh at an exchange rate of ₹95 per dollar, but ₹51 lakh at ₹102, an increase of ₹3.5 lakh.
Higher import costs could also create inflationary pressures, particularly if crude oil remains elevated.
While foreign inflows and softer US yields may support the rupee in the near term, Axis Bank's projections point to continued depreciation over the next two years.