Stubble-burning fires drop 31% across six states as Delhi braces for winter

New Delhi: Farm fires, a seasonal source of air pollution in the national capital, fell 31.3% year-on-year across six states in northern India during the initial weeks of this year's stubble-burning season, according to satellite-based data from the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).

The data showed a decline in farm fires across Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand while Madhya Pradesh recorded an increase between 15 September and 27 October this year.

The decline comes at a critical point in the agricultural calendar, as stubble burning in neighbouring states is a seasonal contributor to worsening air quality in Delhi and the surrounding National Capital Region (NCR), particularly during winter.

An analysis of satellite remote-sensing data recorded 2,265 farm-fire incidents across Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh compared with 3,300 during the corresponding period last year. The analysis by the Consortium for Research on Agroecosystem Monitoring and Modelling from Space, under the Division of Agricultural Physics at ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute said that Punjab reported the highest number of incidents at 717, followed by Rajasthan with 533 and Madhya Pradesh with 510. Uttar Pradesh recorded 324 cases, while Uttarakhand and Haryana reported 159 and 22 incidents, respectively.

The development assumes significance as farm fires contribute around 2.25% annually to Delhi pollution, with their share rising to 12-40% during the winter stubble-burning season that begins on 15 September, depending on weather conditions and the number of fire incidents.

Amid erratic rains

"The decline in farm fires could be interpreted in light of the erratic rainfall patterns this year. Deficient June rainfall and delayed paddy transplantation, followed by untimely October rainfall, may have shifted the paddy harvesting and crop-residue burning calendar in Punjab and Haryana, delaying the seasonal rise in satellite-detected fire incidents," Palak Balyan, research lead, Climate Trends, a Delhi-based organization focused on climate change, environmental governance, and sustainable development. "Meanwhile, Delhi's pollution is driven by multiple sources, including vehicular emissions and traffic congestion, alongside road dust, industrial emissions and other local sources."

Authorities claim that state governments' intensive real-time tracking through satellite monitoring and ground patrolling has helped in the reduction of stubble-burning incidents. "Largescale awareness and initiatives related to crop residue management in both Punjab and Haryana might have led to the reduction in the crop residue burning events," said an official in the Union environment ministry.

Queries emailed to spokesperson of ICAR, and state government of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand remains unanswered till the press time.

Coordinated programme

Delhi and its neighbouring NCR states have drawn up a coordinated seven-month programme to curb air pollution, with a greater focus on public outreach, behavioural change and preventing crop-residue burning ahead of winter. The action plans, covering September 2026 to March 2027, target industrial emissions, diesel generator sets, road dust, construction and demolition waste, municipal solid waste, agricultural residue and vehicular emissions.

The programme comes as Delhi-NCR faces poor air quality throughout the year, with conditions worsening from November to February. According to Central Pollution Control Board data, Delhi recorded its worst city-wide air quality of 2025 in November, when its daily average AQI was 354, pushing the capital into the 'very poor' category.

Meanwhile, Delhi's air has remained in the moderate to poor categories this month so far. Delhi's Air Quality Index (AQI) was recorded at 185 at 12.30 pm on Thursday. AQI is a numerical scale used to communicate the quality of air and its potential health impacts. Air quality standards are slotted under six categories -- good (0-50), satisfactory (51-100), moderate (101-200), poor (201-300), very poor (301-400) and severe (401-500).

However, officials said that most farm fires take place between the last week of October and the second week of November, and therefore the authorities need to be watchful. The reduction in farm fires, coupled with wind speed, improved the air quality in Delhi NCR.