Pre-monsoon emerges as new period of heightened agricultural risk: CSE study

The pre-monsoon season is emerging as a new period of heightened agricultural risk, with unseasonal rainfall, thunderstorms and hailstorms increasingly damaging standing crops. Image credit/iStock

The pre-monsoon season is emerging as a new period of heightened agricultural risk, with unseasonal rainfall, thunderstorms and hailstorms increasingly damaging standing crops, according to a recent assessment by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).

The report, 'Climate India 2026: An Assessment of Extreme Weather Events', highlights a significant shift in the seasonal pattern of extreme weather events, warning that farmers are increasingly exposed to crop losses even before the onset of the southwest monsoon.

"Between March and May 2026, at least 0.73 million hectares of cropped land were affected by extreme weather events, making it the second-highest pre-monsoon crop loss recorded in the past five years, after 2023," it said.

The report identifies lightning and storms as the most frequent extreme weather events during this period. Hailstorms, in particular, have emerged as a major threat to agriculture. They occurred on 80 per cent of the days in April and May, affected 27 states and caused extensive crop damage, it said.

The findings are significant as March to May is a crucial period for Indian agriculture, coinciding with the harvesting of rabi crops such as wheat, mustard and pulses in several parts of the country.

The changing weather patterns suggest that farmers, who have traditionally considered the monsoon the principal season of weather-related agricultural risk, now face another vulnerable period ahead of it.

The report also documents the growing scale of agricultural losses over the past five years.

At least 20.6 million hectares of cropped land were affected by extreme weather events between 2022 and 2026, with more than 82 per cent of the damage occurring in the last three years, it said.

"The affected area increased from 1.84 million hectares in 2022 to 3.2 million hectares in 2024 before shooting up to 9.47 million hectares in 2025. In 2026, another 4.25 million hectares were affected, the second-highest figure in the five-year period," the report said.

Agricultural losses have continued despite a relatively deficient monsoon. The southwest monsoon this year ended with rainfall 13 per cent below the long-period average.

However, heavy rainfall, floods and landslides were reported somewhere in the country on all 122 days of the monsoon season, damaging at least 3.44 million hectares of cropped land.

According to the report, India experienced extreme weather events on 251 of the 273 days between January and September, accounting for nearly 92 per cent of the period. These events claimed 3,220 lives, damaged 4.25 million hectares of crops, destroyed 1,28,334 houses and killed 47,244 livestock.

The report, which analyses extreme weather trends between 2022 and 2026, also points to warmer winters, fewer cold-wave events and the early arrival of heatwaves as indicators of changing climatic patterns.

CSE Director General Sunita Narain said the country was witnessing almost one extreme weather event every day, with the geographical spread of such events increasing.

The findings underline the need to move beyond conventional disaster response towards improved climate preparedness, better agricultural risk management and stronger systems to protect farmers from mounting weather-related losses.