Kigali Amendment at 10: What it means for India’s cooling needs and climate goals

A decade ago, countries adopted the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, committing to a gradual global phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). These chemicals were widely adopted as alternatives to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), used in air conditioners and refrigerators but are known to deplete the ozone layer.

While HFCs do not deplete the ozone layer, they are potent greenhouse gases with a significantly higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide (CO₂). Some HFCs can trap thousands of times more heat than carbon dioxide over a given period, making their phase-down an important step in the fight against climate change.

Full implementation of the Kigali Amendment could prevent up to 0.5°C of global warming by the end of this century, according to research insights prepared by the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD).

The potential temperature reduction assumes greater significance as the United Nations has warned that the world is on course to breach the 1.5°C warming threshold, even as efforts to limit temperature rise and adapt to its impacts continue.

The IGSD works to promote fast climate mitigation to slow near-term warming and self-propagating climate feedbacks.

Even a modest reduction in global temperatures could have significant benefits for climate-vulnerable countries such as India, the research said.

What is Montreal Protocol and Kigali Amendment?

The Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer, which came into force on 1 January, 1989, is widely recognised as the most successful multilateral environmental agreement to date. It was initially developed as a framework to protect the stratospheric ozone layer. The Protocol expanded its scope via the Kigali Amendment in 2016 to include HFCs and commit to phasing them down.

So, why do Kigali’s basic tenets still matter globally, especially for the vulnerable Global South? Full implementation could avoid about 0.3°C to 0.5°C of global warming by 2100, according to the UN-backed scientific assessment of ozone depletion.

Even a fraction of a degree matters when the Paris Agreement seeks to keep warming well below 2°C and pursue a limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, says Durwood Zaelke, president of IGSD.

“Montreal shows that countries can agree to binding obligations and help poorer economies meet them. Binding schedules gave manufacturers a reason to invest in substitutes, with some certainty about when markets for the old chemicals would shrink. Developing countries received longer timetables, supported by the Fund,” he said

The Montreal Protocol’s Multilateral Fund helps meet the agreed additional costs of compliance. Established in 1990 and operating since 1991, it receives contributions from developed countries to help poorer countries change technologies. Its support includes converting factories and training the people who service cooling equipment, Zaelke said.

What is the India connect?

India ratified the Kigali Amendment in September 2021. The ocuntry has taken active steps toward this, the fact sheet says. The country's National Strategy for HFC phase-down was finalised in 2023 and it prioritises sectors based on HFC use and the availability of low-GWP alternatives in alignment with the Kigali Amendment goals.

So, why does Kigali matter especially for India, and how can it help the country meet its climate goals?

Cooling already accounts for slightly more than a tenth of annual electricity demand, according to the IEA. Under current policies, India’s cooling demand is projected to more than double by 2035, according to Zerin Osho is Director of its India Programme.

‘Switching to a refrigerant with a lower warming impact’

“Cooling contributes to warming in two ways. Refrigerants can escape into the atmosphere, while the electricity used to run the equipment causes emissions wherever fossil fuels supply the power. Switching to a refrigerant with a lower warming impact addresses the first problem. A more efficient machine reduces the second,” Osho said.

The UN Environment Programme and the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate that combining the HFC transition with better cooling efficiency could roughly double the climate benefit.

Equipment bought before the first cuts may remain in use well into the 2030s. Its efficiency will determine how much households pay to run it and how much extra generating capacity the country needs. That gives India a reason to improve appliance standards before the treaty’s deadlines arrive, she said.

“For Indian manufacturers, access to funding and suitable technology will affect the cost of changing production while demand for their products continues to grow,” Osho added.

India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) was launched in 2019 and it targets a 20-25% reduction in cooling demand, 25-40% in energy use, and 25-30% in refrigerant demand by 2037-38. It promotes energy-efficient and low-GWP technologies.

LiveMint explains Montreal Protocol and the Kigali Amendment through 10 key milestones and facts in last ten years

1 - The grassroots awakening: The narrative began in the 1970s, when public awareness of ozone depletion sparked widespread consumer boycotts of aerosol spray cans using chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as propellants.

2 - A historic treaty is born: Building on that public momentum, global leaders signed the binding 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, which is widely recognized today as the world's most successful environmental treaty.

3- Eliminating nearly 100 fluorinated gases: Through global cooperation, the treaty successfully phased out nearly 100 fluorinated super-pollutants (f-gases)—including CFCs and their early replacements—by almost 100%.

4- Buying 45 years of time for the climate: By eliminating these potent greenhouse agents, the Montreal Protocol effectively delayed global warming by up to 45 years and is projected to avoid 0.5°C to 1.0°C of warming by mid-century.

5- Preventing millions of health complications: Phasing out ozone-depleting chemicals put the stratospheric ozone layer on course to recover by 2066.

In the United States alone, this environmental shield is expected to prevent approximately 443 million cases of skin cancer, 2.3 million skin cancer deaths, and 63 million cases of cataracts, according to the fact sheet.

6- Protecting terrestrial carbon sinks: Restoring the ozone layer prevents intense UVB radiation from damaging plants and forests. By preserving these natural ecosystems, the treaty safeguards 325 to 690 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide stored in plants and soils by 2100—representing up to 17 years of avoided global CO2 emissions.

7- The Kigali expansion against HFCs: Recognizing that replacement chemicals called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) were potent climate drivers, world leaders adopted the 2016 Kigali Amendment. Phasing down HFCs will, on its own, avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100. Combined with ozone protection, the treaty is on track to avoid a total of 2.5°C of global warming by 2100.

8- Doubling impact through energy efficiency: When the HFC phasedown is combined with energy efficiency improvements in cooling appliances, the climate benefits double—avoiding up to 460 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions over the next four decades.

9- Unmatched economic efficiency: Supported by the Multilateral Fund, phasing out f-gases in developing nations delivers an estimated $2 to $9.5 trillion in savings to society, depending on the social cost assigned to carbon, according to IGSD research.

If all the cost of phasing out f-gases through Montreal Protocol's Multilateral Fund were assigned to climate protection, rather than ozone protection, the cost of climate mitigation would be less than $0.1 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent, IGSD said.

“Phasing down HFCs will, on its own, avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100.”

10- Guarding against climate tipping points: As the treaty marks its Kigali +10 milestone, continuing action over the next decade provides a critical window to slow near-term warming and reduce the risk of crossing severe climate tipping points, such as a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

The AMOC is a large system of ocean currents that acts as a global conveyor belt, moving warm water north from the tropics and cold, dense water south in the deep Atlantic.