From climate targets to energy justice

The global trend towards electrification has been recognised by the climate process, and the policy challenge is that the shift will involve less commonality and greater differentiation.

This suggests shifting the discussion from the global impact of coal-based emissions to the role of electricity in national well-being. The shift will be away from reliance on global models to a review of national actions. Global emissions of carbon dioxide deal with the symptoms, not the root cause of the problem: national energy use.

The G7 should not be allowed to set the agenda, as the Paris Agreement did 10 years ago. Shifting the global policy focus from production to consumption patterns will require a reframing of the climate process. Real collaboration will only come with a new conceptual framework that treats the global crisis as a collection of national inactions.

The limits of global ‘consensus’

Academics in the West, acting as “epistemic communities”, set up the framework of climate policy and law. This framework comprises interlinked ‘global values’ that are universal, ‘global goods’ that are determined by global science, complex ‘global models’ based on global projections and ‘global rules’ arrived at through multilateral conference diplomacy in global organisations.

Official experts described complex issues as the best available knowledge to be universally accepted. They achieved this by using institutions of the United Nations as mechanisms to produce technical reports and frame policies, lending them legitimacy under the banner of international cooperation. International law was then used to enforce within countries the decisions driven by global ‘consensus’.

In the case of climate change, the gap between the evolving science of global ecological limits and the growing energy needs of urbanising countries seeking comparable levels of well-being was resolved through arm-twisting in an unequal world. There was no commitment to transfer financial resources as ‘means of implementation’.

Western diplomats converted a political claim in a vaguely worded treaty into workshops and meetings, where the Global South gained nothing but empty resolutions. Technology transfer has been treated as a ‘scientific’ issue rather than an ‘implementation’ issue. This framing ensured continuing dialogue without any outcome.

Alternate models of growth

The lesson from 35 years of diplomatic negotiations as well as alternate models of growth to those of the West is the need to reframe climate policy.

First, in a major reversal the United States is echoing reservations of the Global South. The Executive Order “Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements”, January 20, 2025, underlines that the United States shall “henceforth prioritise economic efficiency, the promotion of American prosperity, consumer choice, and fiscal restraint in all foreign engagements that concern energy policy”.

Second, as energy use in the Global South grows to achieve comparable levels of well-being, ‘carbonising’ will precede ‘decarbonising’. This is only partly recognised in the UN’s new call for stabilisation, rather than reduction, of emissions. Third, the amount of energy needed for human well-being has never been discussed. China has emerged as the world’s second-largest economy and a major global manufacturing power, achieving levels of well-being comparable to those in the West with much lower energy use.

Fourth, China’s nationally driven path to achieving stabilisation has been missed in UN Reports even though it provides an alternate to the approach of the West. U.S. emissions increased by 133 megatons in 2025. China’s significant steps suggest that the technology aspect of the energy transition should look forward to electrification using renewable sources, rather than focus backwards on eliminating fossil fuels.

Fifth, China’s and India’s insight lies is limiting consumption as a percentage of GDP, replacing the internal combustion engine, and meeting new energy demand through solar, wind and hydropower. China’s more rapid progress shows that because solar and wind power have become “cheaper” than coal and gas, they will not drive the energy transition by themselves. Renewable energy is decentralised, intermittent and has zero-marginal-cost energy, requiring a strategic decision by the state on how to transform the energy system.

China installed more wind turbines and solar panels in 2025 than all other nations combined, adding about ten times as much capacity as the U.S. As this trend is expected to continue, 50% of electricity generation could come from non-fossil- fuel sources by 2030. About 5.62 million new energy vehicles were registered in China during the first half of 2025.

Global trends

Climate policy should now by driven by practice, as a societal problem and not through global models, natural science and environmental law. First, emerging countries are using much less energy to achieve well-being in cities than the West did earlier, redefining lifestyles and ecological limits. Electrification is making the internal combustion engine redundant. Yet this technological trend in energy use is not captured in global emissions models used by the UN.

Second, in material use, the West’s much smaller share of the global population, around one-fifth, is balanced by the sustainable development of the Rest. The demographic trend is now towards ageing. These societal trends are ignored in global models, and taken together with West’s continuing disproportionate use of energy, suggest there is no global crisis, but rather a few national crises.

Third, given the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme events which affect the Global South, where insurance coverage is limited, continuing with token provision of climate finance by developed countries in negotiations needs to be reviewed. More practical measures include global early warning and regional technical cooperation in disaster relief.

The real question for India is how to build support for a new agenda centred on climate justice. The coming discussions on electrification offer an opportunity to shift UN policy development from finger-pointing towards achieving comparable levels of well-being., leveraging India’s status as the third largest economy with emissions half the global average.