Texas Senate race sets record with $573 million in political ad spending

Synopsis

The Texas Senate race has become the most expensive non-presidential contest with advertising costs exceeding $573 million. Democrat James Talarico currently leads Republican Ken Paxton in the polls ahead of the November 3 elections. While Republican spending has surged in recent weeks, Democratic groups initially dominated with their advertising efforts. Outside funding has heavily favored Paxton, with significant contributions coming from aligned groups.

The Texas Senate contest has become the most expensive non-presidential race in US electoral history, with political advertising spending and reservations touching a record $573 million, according to advertising intelligence firm AdImpact.

The record spending comes as Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a closely watched contest ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections. Recent polling has put Talarico ahead of his Republican rival.

According to AdImpact, the race has seen $165.7 million spent on primary advertising, while another $407.5 million has been spent or reserved for general election campaigns.

Texas is only the second non-presidential race in US history to cross the $500 million mark in political advertising, after the 2024 Ohio Senate contest, which recorded $542.7 million. The current Ohio Senate race has also crossed the threshold, with spending and reservations reaching $514.3 million.

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Republican advertisers have outspent Democrats by $140.7 million in the Texas general election campaign, where total advertising spending and reservations stand at $407.5 million.

The figure is more than double the $202.2 million spent during the 2024 Texas Senate general election between Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Colin Allred. In that contest, Democratic advertisers held a $34.1 million spending advantage, according to AdImpact.

Democratic candidate James Talarico and other Democratic advertisers dominated the advertising space until mid-August, spending $21.4 million against $2.5 million by Republicans.

The trend reversed in the following weeks, with Republican advertisers stepping up their campaign. From the week of August 25 through election week, Republicans outspent Democrats by an average of $15.3 million each week. During the week of September 15 alone, the Republican spending advantage stood at $29.2 million.

The surge was driven largely by investments from Republican-aligned outside groups, AdImpact said. Senate Leadership Fund-aligned Texas PAC emerged as the biggest spender, putting $182.1 million into advertisements supporting Paxton and attacking Talarico. It ranked as the eighth-highest-spending advertiser in the current election cycle.

Outside groups provided Paxton with $251.7 million in advertising support, compared with $30.6 million for Talarico, according to AdImpact. Among Democratic-aligned groups, Lone Star Rising PAC spent $14 million, while Texas Forever invested $7.8 million.

Despite the Republican spending advantage, the latest New York Times/Siena University polls show Talarico leading Paxton by 50% to 43%. The survey of 1,215 Texas voters was part of the final set of polls conducted ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

The findings place Texas among five Republican-held Senate battlegrounds where Democrats are leading. The other states are Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Alaska, while the Iowa contest remains effectively tied. Democrats are also ahead in Michigan, where they currently hold the Senate seat.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988. The polling lead therefore comes as Democrats seek to make gains in traditionally Republican territory and regain control of the upper chamber.

According to The New York Times, Democrats need to defend all the Senate seats they currently hold and flip at least four Republican-held seats to secure a majority. The task is considered difficult, as several of the seats they need to win are in Republican strongholds.

The polls also point to voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and concerns over the economy and cost of living. Across the seven battleground states surveyed, Democrats held a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republicans on the cost of living, according to the New York Times/Siena polls.

The wider Texas midterm campaign is expected to cost around $1 billion, with more than half of that amount projected to go towards the Senate contest.

(With ANI inputs)

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