Inside the most expensive races of the costliest election cycle in US history

With polls opening across the United States on Tuesday, the 2026 midterm elections have already set a record that no result can undo.

They are the most expensive midterm cycle ever recorded, and by some measures the most expensive election season of any kind.

That would top the roughly $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential cycle and dwarf the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms.

The money is not spread evenly. It has flooded a short list of Senate battlegrounds, a handful of redrawn House districts and a few governor’s races, and most of it has come not from candidates but from super PACs, party-aligned nonprofits and a small group of ultra-wealthy donors.

The key takeaways:

The scale of this year’s spending is hard to overstate. AdImpact’s tracker shows Republicans and their allies have spent or reserved about $5.18 billion on advertising this cycle, compared with roughly $4.77 billion for Democrats.

Senate races are expected to absorb the largest share of the total, with AdImpact projecting nearly $3.4 billion across Senate contests, up sharply from earlier estimates, while House advertising was projected at about $2.2 billion.

The pace has been relentless. AdImpact had tracked $4 billion in political advertising through June 1, about 46 per cent more than at the same point in the 2024 presidential cycle.

By mid-August the figure had passed $5.2 billion, more than a third above where the 2022 midterms stood at the same stage. The cycle crossed the $10 billion mark in mid-October.

Texas: The most expensive Senate race on record

No race better captures the moment than the Texas Senate contest. Talarico, a Democratic state representative, is trying to become the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas since 1994.

His opponent is Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose campaign has been shadowed by controversy but backed by an enormous outside-spending effort.

An analysis using the OpenSecrets method, which combines candidate and outside spending, reached a similar figure of about $560 million as of October 23, putting Texas about $44 million ahead of the previous Senate record set in the Georgia races of 2020 and 2021.

The money flows in a lopsided way. Talarico has dominated candidate fundraising, bringing in about $146 million compared with roughly $22 million for Paxton.

But outside groups have spent nearly $300 million on Paxton’s behalf, versus about $80 million for Talarico.

Roughly $37 million of the pro-Paxton total came from MAGA Inc, the super PAC aligned with US President Donald Trump, and Musk has directed money to the race through groups including the Senate Leadership Fund and a Paxton-supporting PAC called Lone Star Liberty.

The Texas Tribune found that through the end of September Republicans had paid for 72 per cent of broadcast ad dollars in the state but received only 54 per cent of the airtime. The gap exists because candidates get the lowest available ad rates in the 60 days before an election, while super PACs pay market prices.

The Texas race began breaking records long before the general election. The two Senate primaries drew more than $122 million in advertising by late February, a record for a Senate primary.

Polling has shown a tight race with a slight Democratic edge. A CNN survey in late October had Talarico at 49 per cent and Paxton at 43 per cent, while a University of Houston poll taken October 10 to 14 found the candidates within the margin of error, 48 per cent to 46 per cent.

Turnout has been strong with the Texas secretary of state reporting nearly 4.5 million ballots cast in the first week of early voting alone.

Ohio: A $400-million-plus special election

The second-costliest Senate contest is Ohio’s special election, where Democrat Sherrod Brown is trying to reclaim a seat from Republican Senator Jon Husted. The seat was vacated when JD Vance became vice president, and the rematch-flavoured race has pulled in huge sums.

The OpenSecrets analysis counted about $423 million, of which roughly $344 million came from outside groups. AdImpact, counting only advertising, says the race has passed $500 million in ads and reservations, making this the only cycle on record in which more than one nonpresidential race has crossed that threshold.

Ohio’s 2024 Senate race between Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno was the other race to do so before this year.

Ohio’s overall political ad market is also boosted by a competitive governor’s race. AdImpact projects total political advertising across all Ohio races at about $749 million this cycle. Polls remain close with a Marist survey released October 20 showing Brown ahead by four points, while other surveys showed a virtual tie.

Michigan: An open seat with a record-setting primary

Michigan’s open Senate seat, long held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters, ranks third. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, and analysis puts the funding figure near $337 million.

The pattern mirrors Texas. El-Sayed has raised about $54 million to Rogers’ roughly $23 million, but outside groups have spent about $169 million supporting Rogers against roughly $94 million supporting El-Sayed.

The Democratic primary to succeed Peters was the third most expensive Senate primary on record, behind this year’s Texas primary and Arizona’s 2022 contest, according to AdImpact.

A late-October Michigan State University poll showed El-Sayed leading 48 per cent to 45.5 per cent, a gap well within the margin of error. El-Sayed’s campaign strategists say turnout will decide the race, and he planned events in Detroit and Southfield on Sunday.

Iowa, Georgia, Maine, North Carolina and Alaska: Smaller states, bigger bills per voter

Beyond the top three, a second tier of Senate races has attracted nine-figure sums. Iowa, where Republican Rep Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek, led that group at about $185 million, with outside groups accounting for around 84 per cent of the total.

Georgia, where Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep Mike Collins, came in near $179 million. Maine, where Republican Sen Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, reached about $172 million.

North Carolina, pitting Democrat Roy Cooper against Republican Michael Whatley, stood near $131 million, and Alaska, where Democrat Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, hit about $130 million.

New Hampshire (about $85 million) and Nebraska (about $71 million) rounded out the top ten.

Georgia is the outlier. It is the only top-ten race in which candidates outspent outside groups, largely because of Ossoff’s enormous campaign war chest, which has been built since 2021.

The spending looks even more extreme when measured per voter. Dividing each race’s total by the number of votes cast in the state’s 2022 contest, the analysis found Alaska at roughly $497 per vote and Maine at about $254, compared with about $69 in Texas.

A separate Axios analysis cited found Maine to be the most expensive Senate race in the country on a per-adult ad-spending basis.

Maine’s race has an unusual backstory. Democrats swapped their nominee in July after the departure of Graham Platner, and Jackson, a former state Senate president, was chosen at a party convention.

He raised $20.4 million in his first three months, four times what Collins brought in, but a super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans had committed more than $42 million against him, and AdImpact data showed Collins’ side holding a $32 million television advantage as of October 13.

There is also late movement elsewhere. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, polls show Democrat Adam Hamilton competitive against Republican Senator Roger Marshall.

Trump scheduled rallies in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday after initially cancelling them.

The House: Redrawn maps drive the priciest districts

House races cost far less than Senate races because each covers a single district, but several have still become extraordinary. The best comparison across districts is advertising spending.

As of October 12, AdImpact’s most expensive general-election House races included Florida’s 25th District, where Democratic Rep Jared Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer, and North Carolina’s 1st District, where Democratic Rep Don Davis faces Republican Laurie Buckhout, each with about $41.3 million in ads.

They were followed by New York’s 17th District, where Republican Rep Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley, at about $37.3 million, and Michigan’s 7th, California’s 22nd and Texas’s 34th.

Four of those six districts were redrawn for 2026 as part of the mid-decade redistricting battles that began in Texas in 2025. That has scrambled incumbents’ calculations and pulled more national money into districts that used to be safe.

When primaries are counted, Michigan’s 7th District stands apart. WKAR reported that advertising there reached about $61 million as of October 21, making it the most expensive House race for ads in the nation.

Republican Rep Tom Barrett is defending the seat against Democrat Will Lawrence. Bridge Michigan reported that Lawrence and his allies had spent more than $33 million on ads, compared with more than $27 million for Barrett and his allies, and a Trump-aligned super PAC has reportedly intervened late on Barrett’s behalf.

NPR’s late-October survey of House battlegrounds noted that Michigan’s 7th and North Carolina’s 1st each had more than $12 million in spending planned for the closing stretch, alongside heavy investments in several Florida, New York and Iowa districts.

The most expensive House primary on record also came this year, according to a Louisville Public Media count, the Kentucky Republican contest in which Ed Gallrein defeated Rep. Thomas Massie drew about $37 million.

Governors’ races: California’s record

Governor’s races are also part of the record-setting total. AdImpact says California’s governor’s race drew $349.4 million in advertising spending and reservations as of October 27, making it the most expensive governor’s race ever, though much of that came during a crowded primary.

Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer alone spent or booked more than $195 million in ads before the June 2 primary, which The Associated Press called the most expensive advertising campaign in the country this year at that point.

Georgia’s governor’s race also produced heavy primary spending, led by Republican Rick Jackson’s roughly $83 million in ads.

Who is paying? Musk and the megadonors

The donor class behind this cycle is unusually concentrated. The Washington Post reported that Musk has given $446 million to influence the 2026 midterms, the most by any donor in modern American history, and that the 50 biggest donors put in about $2.8 billion.

Most of Musk’s giving has gone to Republican Senate efforts. He gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in the third quarter, the most that super PAC has ever received from a single donor in one quarter, along with about $76 million to his own America PAC and $20 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund.

Al Jazeera reported that more than $150 million of his giving has been used to boost Paxton in Texas.

Other major donors include Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein at about $150 million and Jeff and Janice Yass at $110 million on the right, and George Soros at roughly $102 million, Michael Bloomberg at more than $84 million with an additional $36 million pledged late last week, and Reid Hoffman and Michelle Yee at about $41 million on the left.

OpenSecrets found that the top 100 donors supplied 64 per cent of all outside-group money.

On the committee side, Republicans hold a fundraising edge. Through mid-October, the Senate Leadership Fund had raised about $546 million and MAGA Inc about $449 million, compared with roughly $342 million for the Republican National Committee, according to filings.

The Democratic National Committee raised about $252 million and spent roughly the same amount. The Senate Leadership Fund and its affiliate Texas PAC had reportedly spent about $442 million across 13 races by October 23, while Senate Majority PAC and its affiliates had spent about $239 million.

Nonprofit groups that do not fully disclose donors are also major players, including One Nation on the Republican side at $133 million and Majority Forward on the Democratic side at about $102 million.

Big-dollar donors have increasingly favoured Senate races over House contests, as forecasters see Democrats as favoured to win the House while the Senate remains a toss-up.

Does the money matter?

The national environment currently favours Democrats. The RealClearPolling average has Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot by 51.5 per cent to 43.1 per cent, an Emerson College survey showed a 10-point lead and another national poll had a 13-point gap.

Many experts have opined that voters’ frustration with Trump and with high costs, partly tied to tariffs and the Iran war, has created a favourable climate for Democrats.

Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the House and four in the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.

Most analysts see a Democratic House takeover as the likelier outcome, while the Senate depends on a handful of contests including Michigan, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina and Alaska.

More than 51 million Americans had already voted as of Sunday, though early-vote totals do not reveal who is winning.

The record spending also raises a fair question: does it work?

In Texas, the candidate who has raised far more directly, Talarico, has stretched his dollars further because he pays lower candidate ad rates, while Paxton relies on outside money.

In Maine, a heavily outspent Jackson has stayed competitive. And history offers cautionary tales. In 2022, billionaire Rick Caruso spent over $100 million of his own money in the Los Angeles mayor’s race and lost to Karen Bass, who spent a fraction of that.