Inside America | Gassed out: Inflation, Iran war and immigration trump GOP

The polls had signalled trouble for Republicans; political pundits were increasingly pointing to public anger, and Democrats were gaining confidence as the 2026 midterm elections unfolded.

Cutting across party loyalties, racial groups and nationalities, voter dissatisfaction over rising gasoline prices, the cost of living, the war with Iran and immigration appears to have undermined Republican support, even in traditionally safe red territory.

By Tuesday evening, a series of unexpected results had begun to rattle the GOP. What was emerging from the election count appeared to go beyond even the Democrats’ expectations; they took Senate with Ohio, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and North Carolina.

The highlight was the most watched Senate race in Texas. The negative media polls came true against the Republican candidate Ken Paxton, State Attorney General. On Tuesday, Democratic Party candidate James Talarico painted Texas with blue, creating a history after defeating Ken Paxton.

Democrats have not won in Texas since 1994. It was a double whammy for the GOP in Texas where Democrats also won the governor race with Gina Hinojosa defeating Greg Abbott of the Republican Party.

The balance of power on Capitol Hill is poised for a major shift. Early projections point to a clear Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, while the Senate contests are producing significant Republican vulnerabilities.

Democrats are projected to have secured control of the House, crossing the 218-seat threshold, with US media projections putting their expected tally at a minimum of 225 seats. In the Senate, they are making inroads into Republican-held territory. Democrats have gained a seat in North Carolina, where former governor Roy Cooper defeated Republican Michael Whatley.

Some of the most striking developments have come from states Trump carried comfortably in 2024. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews defeated Republican Darline Graham in a remarkable upset in a state that Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points.

The result is particularly significant given that South Carolina has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998. Around 11 p.m. Eastern, Democrat Jeff Merkley was also projected to win re-election to the US Senate in Oregon, defeating Republican David Brock Smith.

First elected in 2008, Merkley has positioned himself as a vocal opponent of Trump. He made national headlines last year when he spoke for more than 22 hours on the Senate floor in protest against the president during the government shutdown.

The midterm results are being closely watched across the world because they will determine control of Congress and shape the political landscape for Trump's remaining two years in the White House.

What appears to be unfolding is more than the customary electoral backlash against a president whose party controls Washington. It is the breadth, intensity and geographical spread of voter dissatisfaction that makes this election particularly consequential for Trump.

Rising prices, persistent inflation, immigration policies, the economic consequences of tariffs, and the aftereffects of the war with Iran appear to have brought together an unlikely coalition of disaffected voters across political and social divides.

The public mood has challenged Trump's persistent message that America is doing better under his leadership, and that economic difficulties are either exaggerated or inherited from his predecessor. The early results suggest that the assurance that "all is well" under Trump has failed to resonate with voters whose everyday experiences tell a different story.

Republicans had increasingly sensed the political danger. Some GOP candidates appeared reluctant to make Trump's endorsement or campaign messaging the centerpiece of their own electoral pitch.

In a series of midterm analyses, Firstpost highlighted growing public anger over the cost of living, gasoline prices, unemployment, immigration rhetoric and the war with Iran, which has faced considerable public disapproval. Trump's declining approval ratings added to the concerns confronting Republican candidates.

The defeat of Trump's hand-picked Republican candidate in South Carolina is perhaps one of the night's most telling developments. In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper defeated Republican Michael Whatley, another Trump ally, flipping a Republican-held Senate seat.

Democrats also held Georgia, where Jon Ossoff won re-election, while Chris Pappas secured victory for Democrats in New Hampshire, and created history by being the first openly gay man to win a Senate seat in American history. Taken together, these results point to a widening Democratic challenge in states and constituencies where Republicans had expected to remain electorally secure.

The South Carolina outcome, in particular, illustrates how Democratic prospects have improved in territory where a Senate victory would previously have seemed difficult to imagine.

The surprise is not simply that the party occupying the White House is losing ground in the midterms. Historically, the president's party often pays an electoral price. What is more significant is the extent to which Republican vulnerability appears to have exceeded even Democratic expectations.

The Washington Post reported that Democrats were competing in more than 55 House districts, including a substantial number of Republican-held seats. Mike Smith, head of House Majority PAC, told the newspaper: "We have an incredibly broad map at this point". That geographical expansion is an important indicator of the changing political environment.

The New York Times had already identified inflation as a major vulnerability for Republicans in its pre-election reporting. The central irony is that high prices helped propel Trump back to the White House in 2024, but the same issue is now threatening his party.

Trump repeatedly insisted that inflation had been brought under control, even as many voters continued to feel the pressure on household budgets. CNN's pre-election polling analysis also pointed to Democratic competitiveness in traditionally Republican territory, including Texas and Michigan.

Fox News' reporting from Michigan offered another dimension of the shifting political mood, with voters crossing traditional party lines: some Republicans acknowledging Democratic momentum and former Democrats expressing reservations about their own party.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani captured the emotional contrast of the election night in a speech reflecting on the despair he felt as a Democrat watching the presidential results come in during 2024, compared with the hope he felt on Tuesday.

"We have begun the work of transforming our party and making it belong to the working people once again", Mamdani said at Governor Kathy Hochul's victory party at a Hilton in Midtown Manhattan.

The political implications extend well beyond the immediate congressional arithmetic. If Democratic gains translate into control of both chambers, Trump's final two years will face a substantially stronger congressional opposition, with investigations, oversight and legislative resistance likely to dominate Washington.

The larger message from election night, however, is that Trump's political appeal may no longer be enough to shield Republican candidates from dissatisfaction with his administration. The question confronting the GOP is no longer simply how to defend its congressional position, but how much of Trump's political baggage it can afford to carry into 2028.

What does the outcome mean for India and Indian-Americans?

For the Indian-American community, the results carry implications extending from immigration and economic policy to the future of US-India relations. Sanjeev Joshipura, executive director of Indiaspora, the platform representing the Indian-American diaspora, said the election had effectively become a referendum on Trump and his policies.

"The midterm elections were clearly a referendum on President Trump and his policies. Like the average American voter, Indian-Americans voted largely based on kitchen-table economic issues such as inflation and jobs, in addition to immigration and the subsequent overreach by law enforcement. Indian-Americans specifically cared about the rise in antagonism and animosity against the Indian diaspora", Joshipura said.

The election also brought Indian-American candidates into the spotlight. At around 11 p.m. Eastern, Pia Dandiya was set to become part of Florida's congressional delegation, while Amish Shah was leading in his House race in Arizona.

Joshipura said the results also mattered for India, although the impact of congressional changes on foreign policy would be more limited than on domestic policy.

"On foreign policy issues such as US-India relations, the executive branch and especially the White House wields significantly more power than the legislature, and congressional checks and balances are weaker than they are in the realm of domestic policy. With that being said, a traditional friend of India, Congressman Ami Bera from California, will be a senior member in the majority on the House Foreign Affairs Committee."

North Carolina Indian-American state Senator Jay Chaudhuri offered a broader perspective on why the outcome matters to the diaspora.

"The people elected today will decide whether our relatives can visit and our children's classmates can stay and work here, whether Indian-American small businesses face higher costs from trade fights, and whether the US and India continue building one of the world's most important partnerships. Those decisions start in Congress but reach all the way to our state legislatures and school boards. That's why it's important for Indian-Americans to engage at every level of government and political races", Chaudhuri said.