India's solar import bill could fall over 95% as industry eyes $89 billion investment by 2047

India's solar import bill could drop by over 95% by 2040s with $89 billion in domestic investments supporting 32.3 lakh jobs, as solar capacity and manufacturing expand under ISMA's Solar Manufacturing Vision 2047.

The projections, outlined in its Solar Manufacturing Vision 2047 report released on Tuesday, depend on sustained policy support and the expansion of domestic production beyond panels to solar cells, wafers and polysilicon.

Under the association's Vision 2047 pathway, India's installed solar capacity could rise to 2,275 gigawatts (GW) by 2047, compared with about 171 GW currently. If existing programmes continue at their present pace, the figure would be around 1,370 GW, the report estimated.

The gap extends to 2030, when installed solar capacity could reach 313 GW under the vision pathway, against 278 GW in the current-policy scenario.

Investment in new manufacturing plants would require an average of $4.3 billion annually between 2027 and 2047. Nearly 70% of the proposed spending would go into cells, ingots and wafers, and polysilicon, where domestic capacity is still being developed.

India already has more than 233 GW of module manufacturing capacity and over 50 GW of cell capacity. Its first ingot and wafer facilities are operating, while polysilicon plants are under development.

The report projected that manufacturing-related employment could rise from about four lakh at present to 7.4 lakh by 2030 and 32.3 lakh by 2047. Direct jobs in solar factories alone could grow from 1.4 lakh to 11.1 lakh during the period.

"The potential to attract USD 89 billion in investments, generate over 32 lakh jobs and significantly reduce import dependence underscores the strategic importance of strengthening domestic manufacturing across the entire solar value chain," ISMA Secretary General Amit Manohar said.

The report said cells account for 69% of the present solar import bill, making local production of upstream components crucial to reducing import dependence. Under its vision pathway, India could meet domestic demand across the solar manufacturing chain within the next decade.

Production-linked incentive (PLI) projects had attracted investments of about $8.4 billion by June 2026, with each dollar of incentive drawing around four dollars of private investment.

ISMA called for firm timelines under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers, timely completion of PLI projects and stronger domestic demand from rooftop and agricultural solar schemes.