In US swing districts, high prices dominate minds but not always ballots

Synopsis

American consumers express significant concerns over rising living costs impacting their daily shopping habits. Many voters remain loyal to their parties despite inflation influenced by various factors, including political decisions. Democratic candidates see increased urgency to address economic issues for congressional elections. While Republicans hold strong support among some constituents, Democrats hope to gain ground in swing districts.

New York: American consumers say the rising cost of living is a top concern - one that's changed how they shop. But that won't necessarily affect their votes in next week's congressional elections.

More than two dozen voters in three East Coast swing districts overwhelmingly reported that high gas and grocery bills were top of mind. Reuters interviewed the voters, who largely self-described as working- or middle-class, during routine shopping trips.

Their concerns mesh with Reuters/Ipsos polling finding living costs to be the most pressing issue for voters ahead of November 3 elections that will determine control of the US House of Representatives and Senate.

More than half of the people identified as Democratic-leaning, and said they planned to vote against Republican candidates, many with a renewed sense of urgency.

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But of the ten who said they had previously voted for incumbent congressional Republicans, eight told Reuters they are sticking by them this year. That is despite inflation being driven up by, among other factors, tariffs introduced by Republican President Donald Trump, and a Iran war-related rise in energy costs.

"It hasn't changed my opinion on anything," Republican-leaning voter John Beers, of Peekskill, New York, told Reuters on October 16, as he decried a "staggering" rise in grocery prices and said he'd "be very disappointed" if prices don't ease soon.

Such responses underscore the challenges facing Democrats as they seek to flip seats in a world where economic sentiment is an increasingly unreliable indicator of how people shop and vote, said Katie Thomas, who leads the Kearney Consumer Institute, part of global consulting firm Kearney.

Control of the House will hinge on just a few dozen of the 435 seats being contested - those that feature competitive races, like New York's 17th congressional district, where Beers lives. An Emerson College poll in late September showed incumbent lawmaker Mike Lawler, a Republican ally of Trump, trailing Democratic challenger Cait Conley in this district by 2 points.

The self-employed Beers, 74, lives in a less affluent pocket of Lawler's generally wealthy district north of New York City. Interviewed before a trip to Ahold's Stop & Shop grocery chain, Beers said he has traded down to cheaper coffee amid the pinch, and sacrificed items like avocado oil and sardines.

But he supports the Iran war and is sticking with Lawler.

Echoing Beers, Fred McDonald, a 71-year-old retired diesel mechanic from Easton, Pennsylvania, said he has backed Republicans for many years and won't abandon them now, despite his economic worries.

Consumers have "decoupled" sentiment and behavior, said Kearney's Thomas - a result, she believes, of anxiety about unknowns like the Middle East conflict and the ascendance of AI. "Without a reliable picture of the future, people fall back on routine, habit, and loyalty," she said.

The effect has shown up in how Americans shop: even as consumer confidence has cratered to nearly a 12-1/2-year low, retail sales for the first 9 months of this year are 4.7% higher than the same period last year, according to US Census data.

Consumers are widely trading down on essentials but Thomas' research has found that they are also still splurging on the luxuries they value.

PINCH FROM BEEF AND GAS PRICES

McDonald and his wife of five decades, Antoinette, are living with their daughter, struggling to find housing in an unaffordable market after a landlord took back their last apartment. They've cut beef from their diets and cringe every time they fill their gas tank.

In Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district incumbent Republican Ryan Mackenzie - who earned McDonald's vote in 2024 - is up against Democratic challenger Bob Brooks. Opinion polls indicate a narrow advantage to Brooks.

McDonald is supporting Mackenzie, though, whom he described as "honest." He blames inflation on generalized greed among political elites rather than Republicans.

As higher costs bite, 69-year-old Antoinette said she's considering taking a job.

"I can sew, I can clean," she said. Then, she gestured toward the cashier at the fast-food chain where the couple spoke to Reuters. "And there's always McDonald's," she added.

DEMOCRATS' INCREASED URGENCY

Still, national polling by Reuters/Ipsos this month showed Democrats leading Republicans on a generic ballot question without a named candidate, with a majority of voters faulting Trump's handling of the economy.

Several Democratic voters told Reuters they feel increased urgency in this election, which could spur a higher turnout.

In New Jersey's 7th congressional district, 67-year-old Carla Schiller, a retired nurse, is switching sides. She said she's voting for Democrat Rebecca Bennett. In the past, she supported incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr., partly because she was a fan of his father, former governor Thomas Kean.

"I have to be able to know I can eat," said Schiller as she browsed the pantry aisle at Aldi, a lower-priced grocer she began visiting recently to cut costs.

Back in Pennsylvania, 76-year-old retiree Donna Sook, a self-described conservative Democrat who will vote for Democratic candidate Brooks, said she "just about fainted when I went by (gas station) Wawa and saw $4.65."

Nationwide, US gas prices average $4.29 a gallon, up 40% from a year ago, according to AAA.

After a wallet-punishing trip to BJ's Wholesale Club in New York's 17th, Joanice Patino, 49, fretted about how she would afford gas for the commute to her nursing job, on top of the hundreds of dollars in monthly medical costs for her nonverbal autistic daughter.

"I'm thinking more about prices," said Patino, who plans to vote for Democratic challenger Conley and hopes a change might ease the cost of living.

"Before, we could save something," she said. "Now we cannot save anything."

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