A very severe cyclone threatens the Andhra Pradesh-Yanam coast by Wednesday. The India Meteorological Department said a depression over the Bay of Bengal intensified and moved slowly. Heavy rain is expected across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala. Coastal areas should prepare for gale-force winds as the storm gathers strength soon.
Squally weather, gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over the western and central Bay Tuesday, with impact spilling over to the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Odisha coasts
A brewing cyclone in the Bay of Bengal threatens to unleash a spell of dangerous weather across the South Peninsula, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 20 cm forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and Kerala and Mahe over the next two days.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam are in the firing line on Tuesday and Wednesday, with Telangana also bracing for heavy rain on Wednesday. The bigger threat, however, lies along the Andhra Pradesh coast, where a very severe cyclonic storm is expected to make landfall by Wednesday. Squally weather, gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over the western and central Bay of Bengal from Tuesday, with the impact spilling over to the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Odisha coasts.
System slows to a crawl
Explaining the evolving threat, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said a well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay had intensified into a depression by Sunday morning, as anticipated. It had slowed to a crawl, moving at just 5 km/hr over six hours before virtually stalling over the south-east Bay of Bengal at 5.30 am. The depression lay about 440 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands; and 880 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 980 km east-southeast of Kakinada, 1,080 km east of Machilipatnam and 1,150 km east of Bapatla, all along the Andhra Pradesh coast.
May shift direction
The system is forecast to initially turn nearly southwards before strengthening into a deep depression and gradually recurving west-northwest over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay later on Sunday. It is expected to intensify into a cyclone over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay on Monday, and further into a severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday morning.
The storm is then likely to turn northwestwards, gathering strength as it bears down on the Andhra Pradesh coast. By Wednesday morning, it could become a very severe cyclonic storm, crossing the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, along with Yanam, later that forenoon. Maximum sustained winds of 115-125 km/hr, gusting to 140 km/hr, are forecast at landfall.
Linger window available
The system's slow movement over exceptionally warm waters could give it a longer window to draw energy from the sea and feed on abundant atmospheric moisture. The first cyclone of the ongoing north-east monsoon season, it could therefore pose a formidable challenge as it approaches land. Sea-surface temperatures along its projected path over the west-central Bay are hovering around 30°C, only marginally lower off the Andhra Pradesh coast. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center has indicated that the prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive to rapid intensification as the storm closes in on the coast.
Incremental moisture feed
Meanwhile, a moisture-laden trough stretching across north coastal Tamil Nadu, linked to a low-pressure area over the south-east Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep, could provide an additional feed of moisture. The combined weather systems are expected to bring strong surface winds to North Interior Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, and Rayalaseema over the next three to four days.
The immediate watch is on the storm's track and rate of intensification, both critical to determining the severity of the eventual landfall and the extent of the damage along the coast. On Sunday, Google DeepMind has upgraded probability from 98 per cent to 100 per cent of the emerging cyclone of intensifying by at least another round to an extremely severe cyclone with projected peak sustained wind speeds of 215 km/hr, if not super cyclone with wind speeds of 240 km/hr, ahead of landfall.