The India Meteorological Department forecast normal to above-normal rainfall in parts of central and north-west India during November. This brings relief to farmers during the main wheat-sowing period. IMD Director-General M Mohapatra said, "Below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country," except for these specific key regions.
Normal to above-normal showers likely in parts of central, north-west India during key sowing month
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast normal to above-normal rainfall in parts of central and north-west India during November, the main wheat-sowing period, offering some relief to farmers after deficient rainfall in October.
"Below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except some areas in central, north-west and north-east India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely," IMD Director-General M Mohapatra said at a virtual press conference. Overall rainfall in November is likely to be less than 77 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 29.7 mm, he said.
Wheat-growing regions
The November forecast indicates normal to above-normal rainfall in Madhya Pradesh and adjoining parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat, as well as East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. However, these regions have almost fully irrigated wheat acreage, limiting the impact of deficient rainfall.
Below-normal rainfall in Rajasthan and much of Gujarat could affect rabi crop prospects, as several areas lack assured irrigation.
The forecast comes after substantial rainfall deficits in October. East Rajasthan recorded a 25 per cent deficit, while West Rajasthan had a 63 per cent shortfall. East and West Madhya Pradesh recorded deficits of 71 per cent and 82 per cent, respectively. Gujarat region, Saurashtra and Kutch, and Madhya Maharashtra reported deficits of 99 per cent, 87 per cent and 95 per cent, respectively.
East Uttar Pradesh ended October with a 4 per cent surplus, after a 57 per cent deficit until October 28, following rainfall in the last three days of the month. Bihar's deficit also narrowed from 55 per cent to 4 per cent.
Former Agriculture Commissioner JS Sandhu had earlier said November rainfall would be crucial for normal rabi sowing.
The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall over the South Peninsula, covering Tamil Nadu and Puducherry-Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe, and south interior Karnataka. Rainfall in the region is likely to be less than 77 per cent of its LPA of 118.7 mm.
El Nino to weaken
Mohapatra said the strong El Nino prevailing in the Pacific Ocean could continue until December, but its intensity is likely to decline gradually during January-March.
The country's overall rainfall deficit narrowed from 48 per cent until October 28 to 31 per cent by October 31, making October the sixth driest since 2001. Rains associated with the cyclone over the Bay of Bengal and a western disturbance helped improve rainfall in southern, eastern and north-western regions.
October hottest since 1901
The all-India average maximum temperature in October was 32.43 degrees Celsius, the highest since 1901. The mean temperature was 26.63 degrees Celsius, the third highest for October since 1901.
For November, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except some areas along the Himalayan foothills, where normal to below-normal day temperatures are expected. Above-normal night temperatures are also likely over most regions, except parts of central and eastern India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are forecast.
The government has set a foodgrain production target of 177.72 million tonnes (mt) for the 2026-27 crop year, including 121 mt of wheat. Other rabi targets include 12.33 mt of gram, 2.1 mt of lentils, 14.3 mt of mustard and 2.42 mt of barley.