Gold price falls Rs 1,500/10g; silver plunges Rs 7,000/kg as soaring oil fuels rate hike bets. Time to sell?

Gold and silver prices opened sharply lower on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Friday as rising oil prices strengthened expectations of interest rates staying higher for longer. Investors also awaited next week's US Federal Reserve policy meeting.

In the domestic market, MCX silver futures for December 2026 delivery were down by Rs 5,700 to Rs 2,03,520 per kg. Gold futures for December 2026 delivery declined by Rs 2,000 to Rs 1,44,196 per 10 grams.

Investors are watching the $4,000-an-ounce level closely, as a sustained break below it could indicate a shift away from expectations of interest rate relief towards concerns over persistent inflation, elevated yields and a stronger dollar, said Monte Safieddine, head of market research at Capital.com.

Oil prices climbed about 4% to a five-month high on Thursday after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia raised concerns over further disruptions to energy supplies. Higher energy prices have reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for longer, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Any further escalation in geopolitical tensions could push oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns, lifting bond yields and delaying interest rate cuts, Safieddine said.

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Market attention has shifted to the Fed's October 27-28 policy meeting and next week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the central bank's preferred measure of inflation as it targets a 2% rate. Traders largely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged next week, while the probability of a rate hike in December remains at 80%.

Gold and silver international prices

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,016.27 per ounce as of 0351 GMT, recovering slightly after touching its lowest level since July 20 earlier in the session. The metal has lost 3.5% so far this week, putting it on course for its worst weekly performance since June. US gold futures for December delivery declined 0.7% to $4,030.40.

Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 1% to $53.98 per ounce, platinum declined 0.1% to $1,568.58, while palladium was steady at $1,054.50. All three metals were headed for weekly losses.

How should you trade gold?

Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart expects gold and silver prices to remain volatile during Friday's session, driven by fluctuations in crude oil prices, the dollar index and geopolitical tensions.

Gold has support at $4,022-3,984 per troy ounce, with resistance at $4,094-4,120. Silver has support at $54.0-52.40 per troy ounce and resistance at $56.10-57.20.

On the MCX, gold has support at Rs 1,42,200-Rs 1,40,400 and resistance at Rs 1,44,100-Rs 1,45,000. Silver has support at Rs 1,96,000-Rs 1,93,300, while resistance is placed at Rs 2,01,400-Rs 2,03,800.

Jain said long-term investors could accumulate gold and silver through systematic investment plans (SIPs) during the market decline. However, he advised traders to exercise caution before taking fresh positions until the US midterm elections.

Gold rates in physical markets

Gold Price today in Delhi

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Delhi stand at Rs 1,04,600/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 1,14,104/8 grams.

Gold Price today in Mumbai

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Mumbai stand at Rs 1,04,480/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 1,15,394/8 grams.

Gold Price today in Chennai

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Chennai stand at Rs 1,04,480/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 1,15,394/8 grams.

Gold Price today in Hyderabad

Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Hyderabad stand at Rs 1,04,480/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 1,15,394/8 grams.

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