Dhanteras 2026: A 12% demand surge awaits Indian gold market even as prices hit two-week high

Jewellers expect Dhanteras gold sales to rise 10-12% on strong advance bookings, despite a 4.56% price surge in two days. Crisil expects jewellery sales volumes to fall 4-6%, with higher prices driving revenue growth of 20-21%.

Indian jewellers expect gold sales to rise this Dhanteras on strong advance bookings, though price volatility triggered by US midterm election results may temper final daily volumes.

Surendra Mehta, national secretary of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA), said gold sales are expected to grow by 12% this Dhanteras, over the association's earlier year-on-year growth projection of 7-10%. He attributed the improved outlook to higher gold prices, which could draw more buyers "and reinforce the metal's appeal as a trusted store of value".

Mehta said the US midterm election results could constrain President Donald Trump's actions on the war front, potentially bringing down oil prices and easing pressure on the global economy.

Jewellers also reported stronger demand ahead of the festival. "We expect sales to grow by 10% this year compared with last year's Dhanteras and Diwali season," said Nitin Kedia, national general secretary of the All India Jewellers & Goldsmith Federation (AIJGF).

However, he said, a clearer picture will emerge only later in the day.

Bullion sales in the 20 days leading up to the festival and advance orders offer an indication of consumer sentiment, Kedia said. Both national associations had reported growth ahead of the festive season.

Globally, gold climbed nearly 2% to a two-week high on November 5, supported by a weaker US dollar and lower US Treasury yields following gains by Democrats in the US midterm elections.

In India, 24-karat gold prices have risen 4.56% in two days, from nearly ₹13,979 per gram on November 3 to ₹14,617 per gram on November 5.

Value over volume

The rise in prices is also shaping what consumers are buying. Rather than cutting back on purchases altogether, many are opting for lighter jewellery and smaller denominations, keeping a closer eye on their budgets.

Crisil Ratings expects organised gold jewellery retailers' sales volumes to decline by 4-6% year-on-year this fiscal, following an 8% contraction last fiscal. However, higher realisations are expected to drive revenue growth of 20-21%, supporting cash flows and keeping credit profiles stable.

"Overall, we expect healthy festive demand, but growth will remain predominantly value-led rather than volume-led," said Himank Sharma, director, Crisil Ratings.

Jewellers see demand picking up

After a relatively slow two to three months, jewellers have seen customer interest improve with the start of the festive season.

"The last 2-3 months were slow but with the festive season, the interest is picking up," Suvankar Sen, managing director and CEO of Senco Gold & Diamonds, told ET Online. The company expects value growth of 20-25% compared with last year.

Kalyan Jewellers has also seen an uptick in store footfalls over the past few days. Before the US midterm election results, when gold prices were trading lower, Ramesh Kalyanaraman, executive director of Kalyan Jewellers, had told ET Online that the correction was a "welcome development for customers who had been waiting for a more comfortable point to make their festive purchases."

For retailers, the timing of the festive and wedding seasons could offer another source of support.

Delhi-based Swastik Jewels, which has been in business for 15 years, said the industry is counting on Dhanteras to revive demand after a subdued Dussehra.

"With Diwali shifting to November this year, Dhanteras is very close to the winter wedding season starting from Dev Uthani Ekadashi on Nov 20, which gives us a double driver - festive + bridal," said Nitin Gupta of Swastik Jewels.

The shift in the festive calendar has also influenced buying patterns, with Dhanteras and Diwali falling in November this year compared with October last year.

"It's worth noting that the festive calendar has shifted: Dhanteras and Diwali fall in November this year, compared with October last year, which is influencing when consumers buy. Purchasing patterns remain measured, with greater interest in smaller denominations and staggered purchases, and demand ahead of the wedding season is expected to provide further support," said Samit Guha, managing director and CEO of MMTC-PAMP.

At Sky Gold and Diamonds, lightweight jewellery is expected to find buyers looking to manage their spending, while studded collections could appeal to younger consumers. "We expect lightweight gold jewellery to attract budget-conscious festive buyers, while studded collections should see greater interest from younger consumers," said Mangesh Chauhan, managing director of Sky Gold and Diamonds.

Online gold buying gains ground

The shift in consumer preferences is also playing out online, where digital platforms are seeing demand for gold jewellery and coins across product categories.

Amazon India told The Economic Times that gold remains a festive favourite on its platform. Sales of gold rings grew more than 35% year-on-year, while gold earrings rose nearly 30% and gold neckwear increased 25%.

Demand for gold coin pendants has also picked up. MMTC-PAMP recorded more than threefold year-on-year growth in the category on Amazon, while Muthoot Pappachan and Bangalore Refinery reported growth of 55% and 35%, respectively.

"This Dhanteras, among gold coin pendants, MMTC-PAMP grew over 3X YoY, Muthoot Pappachan 55% YoY and Bangalore Refinery 35% YoY. Customers are also embracing newer choices," stated Siddharth Bhagat, director, Amazon Beauty, Personal Care and Fashion Accessories.

Demand is also spreading beyond major cities. "What is particularly encouraging is the momentum from tier 2 and 3 cities such as Unnao, Bharuch and Akola, where jewellery demand grew up to 2.5X YoY, and new jewellery buyers in smaller cities grew over 40% YoY," Bhagat said.