The India Meteorological Department said the country received 699.6 mm of rainfall as of September 19, which is much less than the normal 822 mm. This deficient monsoon hit 48 per cent of districts. With reservoir levels low, many farmers now face a tough season for their vital kharif crops.
This has been among the worst monsoons in 35 years. Kharif will be hit. Rabi preparation becomes vital
The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) prediction for the South-West Monsoon (SWM) this year turned out to be remarkably correct. Since a 15 per cent deficient monsoon compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) was severe (experienced only twice times during the last 35 years) and almost all the leading agricultural States experienced a deficit substantially higher than the national average, there is an urgent need to assess the impact of this deficient monsoon on the agricultural front.
As per the IMD data, the country received a total rainfall of 699.6 mm from SWM as of September 19, which is much less than the normal level of 822 mm. Further, 48 per cent of the total 734 districts across the country received deficient rainfall (less than 20 of normal). This wide geographic coverage indicates that moisture stress is not restricted to a few isolated pockets, but spans major agricultural regions (see Figure 1).
A deficient monsoon has severely affected the storage capacity of major reservoirs. As per the Central Water Commission's (CWC) weekly status of 178 major reservoirs ending October 15, only 39 per cent of them were holding more than 80 per cent of their live storage capacity. The total storage in these major reservoirs stood at 126.7 billion cubic meters (BCM) or 68.6 per cent of the total storage capacity of 184.8 BCM. This is 24 per cent less compared to last year's storage level.
This storage level is relatively better in the Western, Central and Eastern regions. Storage in the Southern region was the worst, at 44.3 per cent of total capacity. The Northern region also has less in live storage (see Table 1). This foretells severe irrigation shortages for the southern States in particular over the coming months.
Past episodes
The impact of a deficient monsoon is expected to be severe, though the full extent will only become clear after the harvest. A similar level of deficient monsoon was experienced only in two of the last 35 years namely 2002 and 2009. The 2002 drought brought down the kharif production of foodgrains by about 22.2 per cent, rice by 21.7 per cent, nutri-cereals 25.4 per cent, pulses 14.2 per cent and oilseeds by 32.1 per cent over its previous year.
In 2009, the decline of these crops was in the range of 10.3 per cent to 16.7 per cent over its previous year. This precedent demonstrates how sensitive India's crop output remains to truant rainfall.
States cultivating paddy intensively have experienced large deficits in monsoon rainfall this season. As per the Ministry of Agriculture data (as of September 4), the overall kharif sowing was 2 per cent lower than last year, but for paddy, this reduction was 3.7 per cent compared to last year. The rainfall deficit was in the range of 21-43 per cent in most intensive paddy-growing States such as Assam, Andhra, Punjab, Haryana, Telangana and Tamil Nadu. Therefore, it is highly likely that the production of paddy would drop considerably during the current harvest cycle, exceeding the 10 mt drop projected by the rice industry experts. Along with paddy, the water-intensive sugarcane crop might not meet its production target because of low water storage levels in reservoirs in States where this crop is largely cultivated.
Deficient monsoon means increased moisture stress for crops, which will have a direct adverse impact on crop productivity. Sowing acreage alone does not reflect crop health, as prolonged dry spells during critical growth stages suppress yields. Therefore, what is projected as production now based on sowing area may not turn out to be true after harvesting operations are completed.
Rabi prospects
A deficient SWM will also have a serious impact on the rabi crop food production target of 178 mt. Reduced soil moisture availability at the end of the SWM season will impact many rainfed rabi crops during seed germination and early growth phases. Furthermore, reduced storage of water in reservoirs will also impact the cultivation of irrigated crops such as wheat, a major crop of the rabi season. One should wait and see how rabi area cultivation will play out across different regions in the coming months.
A deficient monsoon will not only affect agriculture but will also percolate into domestic water supply until June 2027, when the new South-West Monsoon will commence. More irrigation water from reservoirs will be diverted to meet domestic and other purposes, creating further stress for agriculture. Both the State and Central governments must make concerted efforts to tackle the impact of this deficient monsoon.
First, given the limited water storage in major reservoirs, less water-intensive crops and short-duration crops ought to be actively promoted among farming communities with appropriate incentives. Encouraging farmers to shift away from long-duration, water-intensive varieties in water-stressed districts can prevent crop failure in the rabi season and conserve water resources.
Second, water-intensive crops should be cultivated using micro-irrigation systems such as drip and sprinkler technologies, which can save about 50 per cent of water with a significant increase in crop productivity.
Third, the unpredictability of the monsoon has been increasing in recent years because of El Nino and other climatic reasons. Considering this growing rainfall instability, crop varieties that can withstand moisture stress need to be developed on a priority basis.
Fourth, the government should step up the procurement for less water-consuming crops such as oilseeds, pulses and nutri-cereals so that farmers will be attracted towards these environmentally sustainable crops. Providing an assured minimum support price and robust procurement infrastructure for low-water-consuming crops will offer farmers the necessary economic security to shift away from water-guzzling crops. Both Central and State governments must develop long-term strategies to harvest more output from less water, safeguarding the rural livelihoods and ensuring national food security in the years ahead.
The writer is an economist and former full-time Member (Official), CACP, New Delhi. Views expressed are personal