Asian shares fell on Friday as tech stocks struggled and investors moved money into safe-haven bonds. Markets also lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes next year. "AI is under the cosh," said Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities. Meanwhile, oil prices hit a five-month peak amid Middle East conflict concerns.
SYDNEY, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Friday as concerns over the enormous funding needs of AI hammered tech and led to the biggest daily rally in Treasuries in more than three years, with investors fleeing to sovereign bonds and safe-haven currencies.
Markets also sharply pared back expectations of further policy tightening from the Federal Reserve, stripping out almost a full quarter-point rate hike for next year amid concerns a bursting AI bubble could derail the data-centre investment boom and hobble the US economy. A December rate rise is no longer fully priced, with the implied probability falling to 85%.
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That was despite elevated oil prices, with Brent hitting a five-month peak at $114 a barrel on Friday. Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns of further disruption to energy supplies as fears grow that the conflict in the Middle East could escalate sharply.
"AI is under the cosh," said Charlie McElligott, managing director for cross-asset strategy at Nomura Securities International in New York, in a note.
"US Treasury bonds are — gasp — working as your hedge again, as the market seems to be real-time repricing the probabilities of a US growth scare off the back of the AI reset."
"The question is whether selling accelerates or markets stage another familiar reversal," said Chris Weston, head of Research at Pepperstone.
"There's nothing more emotive than a falling market where buyers refuse to engage. Sellers don't need a fresh catalyst when deteriorating price action itself encourages more selling."
TREASURIES SHINE
As equities tumbled, money flowed into safe-haven US Treasuries, sending yields plunging across the curve overnight. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid more than 19 basis points, the biggest drop since March 2023, before steadying at 4.9591% on Friday, back below the closely watched 5% level.
That was also due in part to the ongoing sell-off in French bonds, whose benchmark yield climbed 6 basis points overnight to 5.0601%, the highest level since 2002.
"The US 10yr yield gapped back below 5% with some conviction. We're not convinced it keeps on going," said Padhraic Garvey, ING's regional head of research for the Americas.
"We're minded to expect it to snap back above (5%), as we still have inflation/fiscal deficit/AI boom underpinnings to navigate. And we have the US midterm elections approaching as an excuse for trouble. But it will need some degree of calm in the risk space first."
The 2-year Treasury yield slumped nearly 19 bps overnight and were last flat at 4.6566%.
Government bonds in Asia also rallied. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell 9 basis points to 2.790%, while Australia's 10-year yield dropped 10 bps to 5.164%.
In currency markets, safe havens such as the yen and Swiss franc gained. The dollar fell 0.2% to 156.44 yen on Friday, after slumping 0.9% overnight.
The dollar also slipped 0.1% to 0.8196 Swiss francs , the lowest in a month, after an overnight fall of 0.5%.
Gold failed to catch any safe-haven demand though, and was flat at $4,021.99 an ounce on Friday after a nearly 3% drop overnight.