Will Trump's Visit to Syracuse Be a Boon or a Bust for Blakeman?

The president is scheduled to appear on Friday at a rally with the Republican nominee for governor, but it's not clear whether his presence will mobilize upstate Republicans.

President Trump will head to Syracuse on Friday for a rally to bolster the campaign of the Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman, the Republican nominee for governor.

The visit marks the third time this year that the president has come to a rally for Republicans in his home state of New York, despite -- or perhaps because -- registered Democrats outnumber Republicans here two to one.

The welcome is not likely to be entirely warm. Within hours of the announcement of the visit, two progressive groups, Indivisible Onondaga County and CNY Solidarity Coalition, began planning protests that are expected to fill a large square in the center of the city, adding a layer of complexity to the security demands that accompany any presidential visit.

"We're expecting, from my perspective anyway, an enthusiastic crowd to welcome the president to Syracuse," said Kevin Ryan, a spokesman for the Onondaga County Republican Committee.

But he said the location of the venue, in the heart of the city, combined with regular traffic and protests, would ensure some level of chaos.

"It's going to be one heck of a time in downtown Syracuse tomorrow," he said.

Mr. Blakeman's campaign is betting that he can turn Democrats' dominance in the state into a liability: As concerns about affordability continue among voters, he has pointed to increasingly costly utility and tax bills in an effort to convince voters that the blame rests in Albany with Gov. Kathy Hochul, his opponent, rather than in Washington.

In an interview on Thursday, Mr. Blakeman framed the visit as a way to project to voters his closeness with the president: "People will understand that when I am governor -- the fact that I have a relationship with the president -- and there's a situation where, when I call, he answers my phone. That is something that's good for the state."

But with an unpopular war in Iran driving up gas prices, and tariffs causing economic pain -- particularly for farmers and people along the Canadian border -- that may be easier said than done. Even upstate, where Republicans typically dominate, just 40 percent of voters approve of the job Mr. Trump is doing as president, according to a recent Siena poll. And Ms. Hochul, who is only marginally more popular than the president, is still ahead by nine points in the race against Mr. Blakeman.

Worse for Republicans is the financial picture of Mr. Blakeman's campaign: Despite the G.O.P.'s significant cash advantage nationwide, Mr. Blakeman's campaign has just $178,000 in the bank, according to his most recent disclosure. Ms. Hochul has $19 million cash on hand, after a $10 million infusion from the New York State Democratic Party last month.

Democrats like U.S. Representative John Mannion, who has served one term and whose district includes Syracuse, are hammering home the message that Washington is to blame for high prices. Mr. Mannion will face Kailee Buller, who worked for the Department of Agriculture under Mr. Trump, in November.

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In a TV ad that aired this week, Mr. Mannion said the president was "making everything more expensive -- health insurance, housing, gas and groceries." He added, "As long as the MAGA extremists control Congress, he'll keep getting away with it."

Mr. Ryan, who previously served on the board of the Onondaga County Industrial Development Agency, laughed off the ad, saying that New York was among the highest-taxed states in the country.

"The costs to do business here are tremendous, which is why we have to give away tax breaks to companies like Micron to come here," he said. "But yet, a Democrat is going to complain about affordability and try to blame it on Republicans."

The 22nd Congressional District -- a rural, red region punctuated by blue cities like Syracuse and Utica -- has a history of being traded back and forth by Republicans and Democrats. Nonetheless, Mr. Mannion's seat was rated recently as solidly Democratic by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, in part because of the headwinds Republicans are facing this year.

It remains to be seen whether Mr. Trump's presence on the campaign trail will help or hurt Mr. Blakeman, a friend from the president's days as a real estate developer.

Earlier this year, the president announced that he would appear at a rally with Representative Michael Lawler, a Republican facing a stiff House race in a purple Hudson Valley district. And while Mr. Lawler had previously been somewhat circumspect on when and how to align with the administration, he nonetheless welcomed Mr. Trump in May, saying: "When the president comes, you show up."

Mr. Lawler will not be attending Friday's rally, a spokesman said, citing a busy campaign schedule.