Voters in Quebec Election Go to Polls as Separatist Parti Québécois Leads

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Voters in Quebec were preparing to cast ballots on Monday in a provincial election in which the separatist Parti Québécois appeared poised to gain power for the first time in more than a decade.

Polls showed the party could win a majority that would empower it to hold a referendum on Quebec's independence in the next few years. The party's leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, vowed to hold a referendum if the party wins, even though there is very low support for independence across the French-speaking province.

Increasingly confident toward the end of a 39-day campaign in which he focused mostly on other issues, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon exhorted voters to hand the party a majority of the 127 seats in the provincial legislature.

"I'm asking people listening to us to give us a real mandate that's stable and strong over four years,'' Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon said over the weekend in Quebec City. "A minority government makes it difficult to fulfill campaign commitments.''

Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon announced his plan for the first 100 days of a new government, saying that he would focus on lowering taxes, immigration levels and homelessness, as well as improving government efficiency.

By explicitly calling for a referendum during the campaign, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon broke with previous Parti Québécois leaders who opted for ambiguity to avoid alienating mainstream voters.

Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon, 49, roused the party's separatist base with his promise but spoke little about independence during the campaign itself. He also tamped down anxieties over a referendum by pledging to hold one only after President Trump leaves office and the economy stabilizes.

Voters displayed little interest in independence during the campaign, showing instead more concern over issues like the rising cost of living, the province's dysfunctional public health care system, the lack of affordable housing and Canada's trade war with the United States.

The Parti Québécois's rivals seized on its promise of a referendum to portray Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon as a potential source of instability.

Christine Fréchette, Quebec's premier and leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec, a center-right party that does not support independence and has been in power for the past eight years, said that a win by the separatist Parti Québécois would create economic uncertainty in Quebec, deterring investments in the province by both private businesses and the federal government.

While Mr. Plamondon has said he would not call a referendum before Mr. Trump leaves office, Ms. Fréchette said uncertainty will arise "the moment a referendum becomes part of Quebec's political horizon.''

She said, "That's what's going to happen Monday evening if people put the Parti Québécois in power."

But Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon has seemed able to overcome such attacks, benefiting from what polls described as Quebec voters' intense desire for change. Ms. Fréchette took over as her party's leader in April after the resignation of the deeply unpopular François Legault. But Ms. Fréchette, a former minister of economy, has been unable to distance herself from her party's track record, especially the failure of several high-profile economic and government projects.

The Parti Québécois is also benefiting from an opposition split among four parties. Another major party, the federalist, pro-business Quebec Liberal Party, has been weakened by an abrupt change in leaders after an internal scandal. While the Quebec Liberals have held power in the past, including as recently as 2018, their support has shrunk in recent years to the multilingual, diverse electoral districts on the island of Montreal.

Polls have indicated that the Parti Québécois is strongest in rural regions of Quebec with strong concentrations of French Québécois voters. Historically, they have been the main supporters of the Quebec independence movement, including in unsuccessful referendums on sovereignty in 1980 and 1995.

Today, support for independence -- around 30 percent -- is at its lowest in decades. French Québécois are wealthier and better educated than in the past -- and less interested in seceding from Canada, experts say.

As the attitudes of French Québécois have changed, and as immigration has risen in Quebec, many separatists have come to believe that the next referendum could be their last chance.

A majority government would allow Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon to initiate a referendum without seeking allies in other parties. Quebec's other separatist party, Québec Solidaire -- a left-leaning party popular among young voters -- frames sovereignty differently. Rather than grounding independence in traditional French Québécois identity, it envisions an independent nation built on an inclusive coalition of all Québécois and the province's 11 Indigenous groups.

Under Quebec's winner-take-all electoral system, only one winner emerges in each of the province's 127 electoral districts. Polls indicated that the Parti Québécois was close to securing at least 64 seats, which would give it a majority with only about 30 percent of the popular vote across Quebec.