Spain election poll tracker: Who will be the next prime minister?

Spanish politics, once fairly consensual, has become highly polarised. In 2023 Mr Sánchez successfully whipped up fear of Vox to prevent what had seemed an inevitable right-wing victory. But that might be harder this time: Vox is in coalition with the PP in several regional governments and its presence has been largely normalised. In Spain's semi-proportional system, in the end the outcome will depend on whether or not a few handfuls of seats in the lower house (of a total of 350) scattered across the country change hands. Although Mr Sánchez will probably narrow the gap in the polls, he is unlikely to close it, meaning Spain could move to the right in November.

Still aged only 54, he is the great survivor of Spanish politics, a clever tactician and formidable campaigner. Mr Sánchez has survived in the top job for eight years, leading minority governments in a now-fragmented political system. He has done so by moving more towards the populist left and by knocking aside what were previously red lines for the Socialists. For example, he allied with Bildu, a party descended from , a Basque terrorist group. To cling on in 2023 he conceded an amnesty (not just pardons) for Catalan separatists who organised an illegal independence referendum in 2017. Most legal scholars, and Mr Sánchez himself, had previously thought the amnesty unconstitutional. Internationally he has positioned himself as anti-Trump, accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and refused to adhere to the target of spending 5% of on defence. That has won him plaudits from some, but his liberal immigration policy and friendship with China have annoyed European partners.

Aged 65, he was an experienced regional "baron" as they are known in Spain, having successfully led the regional government of Galicia from 2009 to 2022. Parachuted into his party's top job, he has sometimes seemed to struggle to adapt to the national stage. By inclination a moderate centrist, he has adopted an ever-shriller opposition to Mr Sánchez. The will try to make the election a referendum on Mr Sánchez. Mr Feijóo has promised "democratic regeneration", restoring independence to regulators and the standing of parliament. He also wants to cut taxes and place some restrictions on immigration and has set an ambitious target of building 1m new homes in four years by cutting red tape. The , with a strong presence in local and regional governments, has proved more resilient than many other mainstream conservative parties in Europe.

Aged 50, he is the son of a shopkeeper in the Basque country who suffered threats from . A longstanding member of the , he broke with it in 2013 and went on to found Vox as a Spanish nationalist party. Its breakthrough came in answer to the Catalan separatist bid, which threatened the unity of Spain. Mr Abascal was elected to parliament for the first time in 2019. Vox's support in the polls has steadily grown, but has plateaued just short of 20% this year. The party calls for much tougher immigration policy, including "remigration" (ie, deportations); it also opposes action to combat climate change, as well as abortion and gay rights. Having been part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group in 2024 Vox switched to the Patriots for Europe group (where it joined Marine Le Pen). Mr Abascal is now the group's president.

Following protests over the bursting of a housing bubble, a group of young activists founded Podemos as a radical-left party. In 2015-16 it threatened to overtake in the polls, but then fell back. Despite his previous opposition Mr Sánchez invited it to form a coalition government with the Socialists in 2019. Podemos has a history of infighting and those opposed to Pablo Iglesias, its former leader, left the party. In 2023 they formed Sumar, a loose amalgam of 20 mainly regional groups, which in a single list with Podemos won 31 seats. The populist left enters this election divided and leaderless.

A total of 28 members of the outgoing parliament represented assorted nationalist and regionalist parties. Among the most important were Junts, the party of Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan separatist leader in 2017, and which voted against the housing decrees; the Catalan Republican Left, a nationalist group which has been a generally reliable ally for Mr Sánchez; and the Basque Nationalist Party, a disciplined conservative party that has backed Mr Sánchez since 2018 but which could potentially support a -led government provided it doesn't propose the recentralisation supported by Vox.