Pro-Russian parties jostle with Kyiv supporters in crowded Latvian election

Good morning. A scoop to start: Vladimir Putin has instructed his military leaders to abandon the rules of conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the FT in an interview, citing intelligence briefings that the Russian president had told his generals: "There are no rules now."

Today, we preview tomorrow's parliamentary election in Latvia, and the Netherlands' justice minister says a freeze on EU funds to Sierra Leone is a triumph for justice.

Have a cracking weekend.

Crowded field

Latvians head to the polls tomorrow following a government crisis in May, in an election that's likely to deliver further uncertainty for the Nato member on the alliance's eastern flank as Russia escalates its threats, writes Paola Tamma.

Context: Polls open on Saturday and seven parties are forecast to clear the 5 per cent threshold necessary to enter the 100-seat parliament, according to a poll released last month and commissioned by Latvian public broadcaster LTV. The campaign has been dominated by socio-economic issues, although parties still largely position themselves around Latvia's ethnic-linguistic divide.

United List, the party of Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, a staunch Ukraine supporter, has a comfortable lead, polling at 14.4 per cent.

Coming second and third, with over 9 per cent of the voting share each, are two parties courting Latvia's substantial Russian-speaking minority -- Sovereign Power and Latvia First -- which are either openly pro-Russia or call for an easing of sanctions against Moscow.

Trailing them with around 5 to 6 per cent of the vote each come the Progressives, a green-affiliated party, National Alliance, a staunchly anti-Russian party, and the Union of Greens and Farmers.

In a spectacular fall from grace, New Unity, the centre-right party of former premier Evika Siliņa, is polling below the threshold at 4.3 per cent. Siliņa resigned following the mishandling of Ukrainian drones crashing into the Baltic country. Almost 15 per cent of Latvians polled said they would not vote.

Kulbergs has ruled out an alliance with Sovereign Power, the more outspokenly pro-Russia party, whose leader Jūlija Stepaņenko has faced scrutiny over financial gifts of €420,000 from her father, a Russian-based businessman whose company supplied concrete anti-tank barriers used by Russian forces.

But he has been more nuanced on other potential coalition partners. Analysts agree that no single party will win an outright majority; the most likely outcome is a coalition government built around Kulbergs' party, although coalition partners depend considerably on who clears the 5 per cent hurdle for parliamentary representation.

Chart du jour: Runs on diesel

Europe should take Donald Trump's diesel ban seriously, if not literally, writes Lex -- it is a sign that the continent can no longer rely on the US being an unconditional supplier of energy.

Drug trade

The EU has postponed aid for Sierra Leone after the Dutch government pressured Brussels to cut off money to Freetown unless it extradited a wanted drug lord, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: Dutch authorities have said Sierra Leone should not receive EU aid unless it extradites Jos Leijdekkers, a Dutchman who was sentenced for cocaine trafficking and other charges in the Netherlands and Belgium. The Hague believes he is hiding out in Sierra Leone under the protection of the authorities.

The European Commission this week said it would postpone €18mn in direct budget support to Sierra Leone's government planned for this year -- a move immediately celebrated as a success by Dutch justice minister David van Weel.

"I'm very happy with that," van Weel told the FT. "I think that every pressure we can apply to Sierra Leone to finally co-operate on the extradition of Mr Jos Leijdekkers should be used."

According to the Commission, the aid was suspended because certain conditions for it to be paid out could not be met. "It's due to technical reasons that the disbursement for 2026 was suspended," said home affairs commissioner Magnus Brunner yesterday.

Commission spokesperson Guillaume Mercier said the aid was "currently under assessment and no disbursement is currently planned" and added that the EU was "closely monitoring drug trafficking and, more broadly, trends in transnational organised crime in Sierra Leone and across the wider west Africa region".

Van Weel, however, waved these technicalities away. "It's up to the Commission to do their own spokesperson [work]," he said. "I consider this a very welcome event in light of the pressure that we're trying to build up towards Sierra Leone."