Estonia shifts troops closer to Russia in 'active defence' push

Estonia is moving troops permanently closer to its border with Russia and acquiring weaponry that could strike deep inside its neighbour, as the Nato frontline country prepares for potential Russian aggression beyond Ukraine, according to officials.

Estonia's military and intelligence chiefs do not think Moscow wants a full-scale war with Nato, at least in the next two years, but believe their belligerent neighbour is preparing for a potential future conflict with the tiny Baltic nation.

Officials fear an opportunistic gamble by the Kremlin, such as a smaller-scale incursion designed to test Nato's mutual defence clause, and say that neither they nor Nato are currently credibly deterring such a scenario.

This has prompted the country, which lacks its own air force and depends on Nato to secure its skies, to shift to a strategy of "active defence".

"We have to start from the border and win from the first battles," said Colonel Tarmo Kundla, commander of the Estonian First Brigade, the country's main fighting force.

As part of the new strategy, his unit will permanently shift from Tapa to Jõhvi, just 50km from the Russian border, where expansive new facilities are being built to house its soldiers.

"Deterrence is not working," said a senior Estonian military intelligence official. "The critical period to address that, for all of us in the Baltic states, is in the next one to four years."

Estonia's Ministry of Defence said: "Credible deterrence requires us to make aggression against us unthinkable. Our aim is clear: to keep the enemy and the destruction of war away from Estonian territory."

Russian state media routinely portrays Estonia as a hostile, "Russophobic" country intent on drawing Moscow into direct confrontation with Nato. The Kremlin has threatened Estonia, including with nuclear warheads, if the country were ever to host Nato nuclear weapons on its territory.

The Estonian government introduced the term "active defence" to its National Security Concept in May. Since then, the country's small, highly trained military has begun a quiet but radical reconfiguration.

From Tapa, Estonia's main military base, crack troops are now in the process of being permanently redeployed to positions further east, closer to the Russian border.

In addition to the new base in Jõhvi, a base for up to 1,000 troops is also being built in Narva itself, designed to house 200 soldiers permanently with room for 800 more in the event of a crisis.

As Estonia boosts military spending -- it has increased by 42 per cent this year to €2.4bn, or 5.4 per cent of GDP, according to official figures -- it is also changing the type of weaponry it buys.

In the last year, Estonia has signed contracts to acquire nine US-made Himars multiple rocket launcher (MRLS) platforms, including M57 ballistic missiles with a range of up to 300km, and nine South Korean Chunmoo MRLS with a similar range.

One senior officer stationed at Tapa pointed out that St Petersburg is 260km away.

"We are in the process of changing everything," said a military policy official at Estonia's defence ministry. "The reality is that the [Estonian defence planning] has been the same for the last 10 years. But Russia is already planning to double its forces across our border."

In the decade after the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, Estonia's military planners had evolved a defence doctrine shaped by their country's history and geography.

Under this approach, if Russia invaded, the country's conscript forces would rapidly mobilise and wage a highly tactical but almost guerrilla-style defence, using deep knowledge of their boggy, forested landscape to harry Russian forces and impose heavy costs until the Nato cavalry could arrive.

But having watched what Russia has done in Ukraine, Estonia's military chiefs have come to the conclusion that such a plan would not work. The Kremlin is oblivious to casualties, they now believe.

Estonia also observed that once the Russian military had taken ground, it would not give it up, but instead would fight to hold territory even after everything on it had been destroyed. For a country of just 1.3mn people and 45,000 sq km, this was a troubling conclusion.

Although Estonia has a trained reserve fighting force of up to 230,000 -- almost one-fifth of its population -- its permanent standing forces comprise just 4,200 personnel.

In a wartime or prewar scenario, the country's defence plans can swell this force with 39,500 high-readiness reservists, each deploying within hours to a specific unit with which they have trained to fight. A further 40,000 trained reservists are at readiness for unassigned deployment.

Changing the country's doctrine to prevent the loss of any territory is thus a challenge, particularly given that Estonian military intelligence believes Russia will try hard to maintain an element of surprise with any act of aggression.

Estonia now plans to fight over every inch of territory from the border onwards and to hit Russia hard, hundreds of kilometres behind the front line, from day one of any invasion.

"Militarily this is very demanding," said Kundla. "We cannot shape the enemy [by retreating or tactically luring them into situations]. We have to build our lines today. It is forward defence."

What Estonia's military intelligence particularly fears is some kind of limited action against a border target -- in particular, the small, mainly Russian-speaking city of Narva.

Taking Narva would make little sense if the objective were a full-scale invasion of Estonia, but it might serve a purpose as a provocative test of Nato resolve, aimed at fracturing the alliance, officials say.

"We and allies will be somehow surprised," said Kundla.

Russia's goal in such a scenario would be to call into question Nato allies' willingness to come to Estonia's aid, by presenting their attack as a fait accompli.

Estonia hopes Nato allies will also play a key role in the country's new defence stance, helping to deter such an assault. The UK has already committed to increasing the size of its military deployment in the country from 800 to 1,200 troops by April next year.

When UK forces exercised together with Estonians in this year's Spring Storm training event, a military drill, they brought something new, UK military officials told the FT: Nyan one-way effectors. These kamikaze drones are designed for deep-strike capability and for launch from battle zones.

As with the MRLS systems, the Nyan drones have a 300km range. That puts most of Russia's biggest regional military bases and the city of St Petersburg within striking range.

Despite the mounting concern over Russian aggression in Europe, particularly the Kremlin's "hybrid" sabotage campaign, Estonia's security establishment still believes it has the time to adapt and deter its neighbour.

There is a big uncertainty, however: Ukraine. For as long as that war continues, Russia's military is kept tied down. But if a ceasefire or peace plan takes shape, then Nato officials fear the threat facing the Baltic states will be far more serious.

Tens of thousands of battle-hardened Russian troops could then be redeployed on the border. And Russia will have a vast defence-industrial machine operating at full tilt.

"We were afraid of the war [in Ukraine]," said one senior Estonian intelligence official. "Now we are afraid of the end of the war."