Breakingviews - COMMENTARY: A roadmap for Andy Burnham to reverse Brexit

PARIS, Oct 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Andy Burnham said last week that the United Kingdom could "go all the way" and rejoin the European Union. How could Britain's new prime minister complete such a journey given the trauma Britain has suffered following the 2016 Brexit referendum and the trouble it inflicted on its European partners in the process?

Burnham will have to start by deciding that he definitely wants to rejoin the EU. He will then have to win a general election based on that premise and then persuade the 27-country bloc to readmit its former member. Here is a roadmap.

Burnham said in his speech, opens new tab to his Labour Party's conference that "Brexit has done more harm than good". Britain's economic output is 6-8%, opens new tab lower than it would have been if it had stayed in the EU, according to a recent paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Brexit has also damaged both the UK's and the EU's power, weakening the continent at a time of geopolitical turmoil.

The prime minister laid out a series of options, only one of which was to rejoin the EU. The alternatives are to join Europe's customs union or single market, negotiate a bespoke deal with the bloc like the one Canada, opens new tab is discussing, or leave things as they are. There are good reasons for going the whole way.

Becoming a member of the EU's customs union would simplify trade in goods across the English Channel. But it would not boost trade in services, which accounts for about 80%, opens new tab of UK output. It would also require Britain to align its trade policy with the EU's but not have any vote on it.

Joining the single market would smooth trade ⁠in services as well as goods. However, Britain would have to accept free movement of people across the EU and follow all the bloc's economic regulations, again without a say in how they are formed.

Canada and the EU are discussing joining forces to help them both resist intimidation by China, the United States and Russia. The idea is to boost resilience in everything from energy and rare earths to technology and defence equipment. While the UK also needs to stand up to bullies, it is more closely entwined with the EU than Canada. So although a "resilience pact" could be a good step to rejoining, full membership with a seat at the decision-making table remains the best destination.

CONVINCING VOTERS

Burnham says a decision on rejoining the EU would have to wait until after a general election, which must be held no later than 2029. His Labour Party is favourite, opens new tab to win the most seats, probably without an overall majority, according to Oddschecker. But it is vying, opens new tab with Reform UK, the anti-EU party led by Nigel Farage, for first place.

One reason for going all the way is that this is more popular, opens new tab than joining either the single market or the customs union, according to polling by YouGov for Best for Britain, the pro-EU group. Their research, opens new tab also shows that Labour will perform better at the next election if it backs full EU membership.

Burnham would still have to win the election, though. Key to this would be to convince voters that rejoining the EU would help address their main, opens new tab concerns: migration, the economy, security, and health. This is where the prime minister's charisma should be an asset.

If Labour won a general election, perhaps forming a ⁠coalition with the pro-European Liberal Democrats, that would not be the end of the story. Burnham says there might also be a referendum on reversing Brexit.

One way to make it easier to win such a plebiscite would be to offer voters a simple question about the principle of rejoining the EU, while leaving the details to parliament. This would be a mirror image of the Brexit referendum, which consulted voters before the government had negotiated an exit deal. Such a vote could take place immediately after an election.

CONVINCING THE EU

Even then, however, Britain could not re-enter the bloc by expressing its desire to do so. It would have to persuade the EU's 27 existing members to let it back into the club.

The UK would not get the same terms it enjoyed before, when it received a £4.5 billion, opens new tab rebate on its annual membership fee. It might also have to sign up ⁠to eventually join the euro, though this would not necessarily be a dealbreaker. EU members such as Poland and Sweden still have their currencies.

Britain has much to contribute to the EU. Its capable military and its $4.3 trillion, opens new tab economy, Europe's second largest after Germany's, are key assets.

A trickier challenge will be persuading the EU that Britain is coming back for good. Even if Burnham charms the bloc's leaders, starting with a summit planned for November, they will worry that a future anti-EU government in Westminster will pull the UK out for a second time.

While the prime minister cannot give a cast-iron ⁠guarantee that this will not happen, he can mitigate the risk. His plan to change Britain's voting system if he wins the next election would, if successful, make it impossible for an anti-EU party to obtain a parliamentary majority with as little as 30% of the vote, as is theoretically the case today. Under a more proportional voting system, a future anti-EU government would need the support of nearer half the electorate to push through its agenda.

What is more, if Burnham called a referendum to take Britain back into the EU, he could ⁠set the threshold of consent at, say, 55% or 60%. This would help establish the precedent that a similar super majority would be needed for any subsequent attempt to take the UK out.

The EU is weak and divided. Whether it rises to the challenges presented by Russia, China and the United States and tackles its own economic woes will help determine whether the UK wants to rejoin. If far-right parties take power in France and Germany, the EU will be a less attractive club. By contrast, if the bloc boosts its defences, helps Ukraine stave off Russia's invasion and enacts long-promised reforms to boost its productivity, Burnham - and many Britons - will be clamouring to rejoin.

Follow @Hugodixon, opens new tab on X

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Editing by Peter Thal Larsen; Production by Streisand Neto

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Reuters Breakingviews is the world's leading source of agenda-setting financial insight. As the Reuters brand for financial commentary, we dissect the big business and economic stories as they break around the world every day. A global team of about 30 correspondents in New York, London, Hong Kong and other major cities provides expert analysis in real time.

Hugo Dixon

Thomson Reuters

Hugo Dixon is Commentator-at-Large for Reuters. He was the founding chair and editor-in-chief of Breakingviews. Before he set up Breakingviews, he was editor of the Financial Times' Lex Column. After Thomson Reuters acquired Breakingviews, Hugo founded InFacts, a journalistic enterprise making the fact-based case against Brexit. He was also one of the founders of the People's Vote which campaigned for a new referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU. He was one of the initiators of the G7's "partnership for global growth and infrastructure", a $600 billion plan to help the Global South accelerate its transition to net zero. He is now advocating a $300 billion "reparation loan" for Ukraine, under which Moscow's assets would be lent to Kyiv and Russia would only get them back if it paid war damages. He is also a philosopher, with a research focus on meaningful lives.