Brazil's rightwing surge boosts Flávio Bolsonaro's push to free his father

Sweeping rightwing gains in Brazil's Congress have boosted Flávio Bolsonaro's chances to push for amnesty for his father, the country's former hard-right leader, and other coup plotters if he wins the presidency.

The 45-year-old senator is in pole position to win a run-off vote later this month, after he upended many polling forecasts with a nearly two-point lead over leftwing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a first round on Sunday.

The strong showing for the opposition candidate, along with conservative victories in parliamentary and gubernatorial races, has emboldened calls for the release of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. The Bolsonaros' Liberal Party (PL) solidified its position as the largest force in the national legislature.

The elder Bolsonaro, a radical populist dubbed the "Trump of the Tropics", is serving a 27-year sentence, currently under house arrest on health grounds, for planning a violent putsch after losing re-election to Lula four years ago. Allies claim he is a victim of political persecution.

"We are honouring our [former] president Bolsonaro who is imprisoned at home and we will free him," said PL's Bia Kicis, who was elected to the Senate on Sunday. "We are going to vote for amnesty and get the political prisoners out of jail."

The PL's senators will rise from 15 to 28, the biggest bench since Brazil's 1988 constitution went into force. A loose centre-to-right bloc in the Senate appears close to reaching the two-thirds threshold required for the impeachment of Supreme Court justices, such as those who jailed the elder Bolsonaro.

In the more fragmented lower house, the party will occupy 121 of 513 seats but could command a working majority with the co-operation of other conservative and centrist parties.

Obtaining a congressional pardon for the elder Bolsonaro is a key objective and long-promised campaign pledge for his anointed heir as he seeks to restore the dynasty's political fortunes.

Rightwingers also want clemency for those convicted of riots in Brasília on January 8 2023, when hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters trashed government buildings and called for a military takeover, claiming without proof that the prior election had been stolen.

Prosecutors said it was the last gasp of a wide-ranging conspiracy, involving former ministers and armed forces personnel, aimed at illegally maintaining the elder Bolsonaro in power. The abortive plot involved plans to assassinate Lula.

"At the end of the day, the main driver of Flávio's campaign is his father's release," said Creomar de Souza, founder of Dharma Political Risk and Strategy. "If Flávio's victory is confirmed -- and it looks set to be a strong result -- then I think this issue will hit the agenda."

The head of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, on Monday suggested Jair Bolsonaro, 71, could run for president again in 2030 should his son win the election and free him.

A comprehensive amnesty could also benefit Flavio's brother Eduardo. The former lawmaker, living in self-imposed exile in Texas, was convicted in absentia last year for lobbying US authorities to interfere in his father's trial and risks arrest upon return home.

The removal of certain top judges is another rallying cry for Bolsonaristas, who allege that the tribunal is politically biased in favour of Lula and unfairly targets conservatives.

Their main target is Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the Bolsonaro coup case and has faced intense scrutiny over his dealings with a disgraced banker at the centre of a corruption scandal. He denies wrongdoing.

"Work has already begun and Alexandre de Moraes is going to prison," said Marcel Van Hattem, who was elected senator for the rightwing Novo party.

However, there are doubts about Flavio Bolsonaro's willingness to immediately embark on a path that could spark a constitutional crisis, given the powerful Supreme Court is likely to veto an amnesty proposal.

Leandro Consentino, political scientist at Insper in São Paulo, said the rightward shift was "driven more by a rejection of the current government and an attempt to respond to the excesses of the Supreme Court -- and the political class as a whole".

"[Flávio Bolsonaro] tends to be more forceful rhetorically but more cautious in practice," he added.

If elected, Flavio Bolsonaro may play the long game, according to Carlos Pereira, professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation. Brazil's next president will appoint four Supreme Court judges.

"Strategically for Flávio it's better to wait until the moment when the court is more favourable to his interests," he said.

Brazil's Congress is notoriously transactional and establishment centre-right parties may be wary about provoking the wrath of the Supreme Court, which has amassed unusual influence in recent years.

Yet if Bolsonaro assumes office in January, his base is unlikely to relent.

"We can no longer keep accepting a dictatorship of the Supreme Court," said Domingos Sávio, a PL senator-elect. "I will fight for amnesty for political prisoners."