ബോസ്നിയയിൽ നിർണ്ണായകമായ പൊതുതിരഞ്ഞെടുപ്പ് ഞായറാഴ്ച നടക്കുന്നു. റഷ്യൻ അനുകൂലിയായ മിലോറാഡ് ഡോഡിക്കിന്റെ ഭാവി തീരുമാനിക്കുന്നതിനൊപ്പം, രാജ്യം യൂറോപ്പിലേക്കോ അതോ റഷ്യയിലേക്കോ ചായുമെന്നത് ഈ തിരഞ്ഞെടുപ്പ് വ്യക്തമാക്കും. നിലവിലെ രാഷ്ട്രീയ പ്രതിസന്ധികൾ മേഖലയുടെ സ്ഥിരതയെയും യൂറോപ്യൻ യൂണിയൻ പ്രവേശനത്തെയും വലിയ രീതിയിൽ ബാധിക്കാൻ സാധ്യതയുണ്ട്.
Bosnians will vote on Sunday in elections that will decide the successor to hardline pro-Russia strongman Milorad Dodik and shape whether the country turns more towards Europe or Russia.
Voters will select three parliaments for Bosnia's two main entities -- the Serb Republic (RS) and the Bosniak-Croat Federation -- and the state. They will also select a new three-member presidency for the country and a new president for the RS.
Dodik's party is facing its strongest challenge yet in the vote for the presidency of the Serb Republic, as opposition parties unite against him. The former Bosnian Serb president, who has courted Donald Trump and travelled to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin this week, has influenced Bosnian politics for decades.
"These are potentially game-changing elections," said Milan Nič, Balkans expert at the German Council of Foreign Relations. "The result will shape whether the new government leans more or less towards the West and . . . talks on EU integration."
"Bosnia and Herzegovina is already in deep crisis, and any uncertainty could destabilise the whole region in a way that would derail EU enlargement," he said.
Nič said that Washington and Moscow were pushing for changes to the 1995 Dayton peace agreement, which ended a bloody three-year war in the wake of the break-up of Yugoslavia and created the complex Bosnian political system. Europe was left as the defender of the status quo, he said.
As part of that agreement, an international overseer known as the High Representative guarantees the integrity of the system. German diplomat Christian Schmidt, who served in that role until July of this year, resigned this summer after US pressure. His American deputy, Louis J Crishock, currently serves as the acting High Representative.
Schmidt said one of the points of disagreement was over a gas pipeline deal that was awarded to a US company with links to the Trump family in an opaque process, prompting complaints from Europe.
The US state department said in its Western Balkans policy in May that it would seek "clear, demonstrable benefits for American interests, prioritising near-term, measurable results over open-ended institution building. Commercial engagement programs will emphasise . . . direct return for US companies".
Dodik, who has called for the Serb republic to secede from Bosnia, has long been a thorn in the side of western partners worried about the country's drift towards disintegration and re-emerging violence.
He was forced out of the presidency last year for failing to comply with the Dayton Agreement and was replaced by an interim president.
Dodik's candidate for the RS presidency, current SNSD party premier Savo Minić, holds a 49-to-45 per cent edge over opposition candidate Branko Blanuša, according to a mid-September poll by Metrics Consulting -- giving Blanuša a fair shot at prevailing.
Dodik's party is still likely to remain the largest in the Assembly. The Metrics poll put it at 36 per cent, ahead of its two closest rivals on 16 per cent and 12 per cent respectively. But it may win a lower share and struggle to find coalition partners.
"The opposition should be able to pick off at least one of the three races, the entity presidency, the state presidency and the Assembly," said independent Balkan expert Jasmin Mujanović.
Mujanović noted that the results could be very different from previous votes as a result of recent electoral reforms using electronic identification that may help cut fraud.
The vote may "show that possibilities of dialogue actually do exist, partly because the Bosnian Serb and Croat electorates are more moderate than we have been led to believe by past results", Mujanović said.
Russia has also continued to influence Bosnian politics. Putin expressed his support for Dodik and Minić in their meeting on Tuesday and promised unchanged gas prices, according to an RS government statement.
"Trust in Bosnia and Herzegovina has never been lower, and I believe Bosnia and Herzegovina will struggle to succeed," Dodik said during the meeting.
Serbs in Bosnia are also watching elections in Serbia itself later this month, where Dodik ally nationalist Aleksandar Vučić is facing the strongest challenge to his 12-year rule.