ക്യൂബെക്ക് തിരഞ്ഞെടുപ്പ്: വിഘടനവാദികൾ മുന്നിൽ, എന്നാൽ സ്വാതന്ത്ര്യത്തിനായുള്ള വാദം ജനങ്ങൾക്കിടയിൽ ദുർബലമാകുന്ന

In Limoilou, a neighborhood not far from Old Quebec's cobblestone streets, there were few outward signs of support for Quebec's independence: no fleur-de-lis flags, no "oui" signs in the windows of homes or shops. Candidates knocking on doors heard voter concerns about rising food prices, the trade war with the United States and even cannabis -- not about breaking away from Canada and forging a sovereign nation.

The Parti Québécois -- the party that held two previous, unsuccessful referendums on independence -- has vowed to call a third if it wins Monday's provincial election. Polls show that it is favored to win despite low support for independence itself across the French-speaking province.

More than three decades since Quebec last said "no" to independence, the Parti Québécois is finding it harder to persuade voters to leave Canada -- even in historically separatist neighborhoods like Limoilou in Quebec City.

At a public square on Limoilou's main avenue, François Bonneau recalled voting for independence in the referendums of 1980 and 1995, moved by the history of discrimination against French Québécois like himself. But over the years, he came to envision Quebec's future within Canada.

"If we're together, it makes us stronger," Mr. Bonneau, 69, said. "If we separate, we'll be smaller, less powerful."

The Parti Québécois leads in the polls because voters want change after eight years of the Coalition Avenir Québec, a pro-business, center-right party led by Christine Fréchette, who became premier in April after the resignation of the deeply unpopular François Legault. The Parti Québécois is also benefiting from an electorate split among four other major parties, though it is not clear it will get more than half of the 127 seats required to form a majority government. Many voters are turned off by its commitment to a third referendum, political analysts say.

"The referendum is a ball and chain that's not heavy enough to prevent them from winning, but it'll prevent them from going as far as they'd want," said Éric Bélanger, a political scientist at McGill University.

Generations of Parti Québécois leaders kept their positions on a third referendum ambiguous so as not to alienate voters. But the party's current leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 49, has explicitly called for one, promising to hold it after President Trump leaves office in hopes the economy stabilizes. He has argued that it may be the last chance for independence because of rising immigration in Quebec. Polls show, for example, that the overwhelming majority of non-francophone residents of Quebec would side against independence.

That message has rallied core supporters at Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon's campaign stops.

"It's our last chance," Richard Thurber, 78, a lifelong supporter of independence, said at a rally in a suburb of Montreal, adding that young people and immigrants were not interested in independence.

Polls show that about 30 percent of voters in Quebec support independence -- one of the lowest levels in decades. In 1995, when Quebec came close to seceding, just under half voted "yes."

The Parti Québécois has been the flag-bearer of the independence movement since it was established in 1968 amid the Quiet Revolution, a period of social, cultural and political upheaval in Quebec. A clear vote for independence in a future referendum would not immediately lead to secession, but to negotiations between the provincial and federal governments over independence. In a few weeks, voters in Alberta will decide on whether to hold a referendum on separation from Canada.

Quebec's independence movement was rooted in the history and distinct culture of French Québécois, or French Canadians, and their search for self-determination. A minority in Canada, they were historically less educated and economically dominated by the province's English-speaking minority. French was the language they were forbidden from speaking at work, English was the language of the oppressor, and the federal government was sometimes regarded with hatred, said Jacques Beauchemin, a sociologist at the Université du Québec à Montréal.

Today, the factors that fueled independence have lost their power. French Québécois are better educated, wealthier and less insular. Young Québécois switch effortlessly between French and English, and are mostly unmoved by the history of French Canadians, Mr. Beauchemin said. The most popular politician in Quebec is Prime Minister Mark Carney.

"Some say it's the last chance, but is it already too late? I tend to think so," Mr. Beauchemin said. "Quebec has changed to such an extent that this project is fading away.''

That change can be seen in Limoilou, a neighborhood that emerged from farmland in the early 20th century. Inspired by the modernity of New York City, its developer, Quebec Land, divided Limoilou into a grid of avenues and streets, with a thoroughfare cutting diagonally through the neighborhood -- a sharp contrast to the meandering, European-style streets of Old Quebec.

For decades, Limoilou was home to working-class French Canadians who supported independence at higher rates than those elsewhere in the province, in the referendums of both 1980 and 1995.

Today, gentrification has brought cafés, ice cream parlors, microbreweries and restaurants serving Thai and sushi fusion. Politically, Limoilou's support of independence is lower than in the past, though still higher than the provincial average. The local race is a tight one between the Parti Québécois and the province's other, smaller separatist party, Québec Solidaire.

"Even as a small nation, Quebec would be able to defend itself instead of having its interests subordinated to the competing interests of Canada," Claude Villeneuve, 44, the Parti Québécois candidate, said in an interview.

An independent Quebec would be built around a collective French Québécois identity, Mr. Villeneuve said. Though the movement has been rooted among French Québécois, he believed that immigrants and their children would share that vision after integrating into Quebec society.

"I'm making that bet," Mr. Villeneuve said. "The more we converge socially around a common culture, the more we'll share the same views politically."

Mr. Villeneuve spent a recent day campaigning -- giving a radio interview, meeting community organizers, visiting a residence for seniors and knocking on doors. But he didn't bring up the issue of independence, and neither did voters.

At one home, when asked by a reporter, Lloyd Fulham, 48, said he had supported independence since his youth -- inspired by "400 years" of French Canadian history and "frustration at not being listened to" inside Canada. Though he "liked Carney a lot," he said, "I'm still somewhat for the separation of Quebec."

For Marilou Laperrière, 47, appeals to her French Québécois identity had lost their political resonance as she and the world around her changed.

"When I was a kid in school, there was one Black student and a Chinese girl who had been adopted," Ms. Laperrière said, adding that by contrast, her son's school was very diverse, which she found "really beautiful.''

Ms. Laperrière said her view of Quebec's history had also evolved. "What are we?" she said of French Québécois. "We're also immigrants. The Indigenous people were here before us."

She said she was drawn to Québec Solidaire, a left-leaning party whose vision of an independent Quebec is explicitly not based on a collective French Québécois identity.

Instead, the party champions an independent Quebec as a "multinational" country made up of Québécois and the province's 11 Indigenous peoples -- each sovereign and with the right to self-determination, said Sol Zanetti, 44, the party co-leader and the incumbent lawmaker in the district, Jean-Lesage, that includes Limoilou.

"It's a vision at once inclusive and decolonial," said Mr. Zanetti, the son of a French Canadian mother who voted for independence in 1995 and an Italian Canadian father who voted against it.

An independent Quebec, he said, would be better equipped to handle what his party saw as the most pressing issue of the day: the climate crisis.

Polls show, though, that supporters of Québec Solidaire are less committed to independence than those of the Parti Québécois.

Audrey Martineau, 43, said she was voting for Québec Solidaire for its "left-leaning" values. To her, the party's vision of independence was "more positive, with joie de vivre," whereas the Parti Québécois's was "more defensive -- more 'we're being swallowed up by Canada.'"

Was she then in favor of Quebec independence?

"That's the thing -- I'm not really a separatist," Ms. Martineau said. "I'm supporting the party despite the fact it's pro-independence."

"When I was younger, I was more of a separatist," she added. "Now that doesn't resonate with me as much."