Rocket Lab shares rose 0.4% overnight as NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman warned the U.S. and China are separated by "months, not years" in the moon race. NASA is weighing bulk rocket purchases for its $30 billion moon-base effort. Analysts said the Neutron rocket could offer a key launch option soon.
NASA is weighing bulk rocket purchases for its estimated $30 billion moon-base effort.
* NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said the U.S. and China are separated by "months, not years" in the race to return astronauts to the moon.
* ARK analysts said Neutron could offer a launch option close to Falcon 9's capacity as satellite operators seek more launch access.
* Neutron is designed to carry 13,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit, compared with about 17,000 kilograms for partially reusable Falcon 9.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) shares rose 0.4% overnight heading into Monday after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman warned that the U.S. and China are separated by "months, not years" in the race to return astronauts to the moon, shifting investor attention to launch providers.
RKLB shares fell 8% to $68.21 last week, marking their worst weekly performance since late August.
NASA And China Race To Lunar South Pole
China aims to land astronauts on the moon by 2029, while NASA is targeting a crewed return by the end of 2028, Isaacman said in a Fox Business interview. "That's a difference of months, not years," he said. "This is going to be extremely close right now."
Isaacman said China and Russia are working together on plans for a lunar base and a nuclear power plant near the moon's south pole. NASA plans to launch its first moon-base mission in December aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy. "The race is very much on," he said. He also named Rocket Lab as one of the commercial space companies NASA can draw on, alongside SpaceX, Blue Origin, Boeing, and others.
The agency is also considering bulk purchases of rocket launches for its estimated $30 billion moon-base effort. Moon Base Program Manager Carlos Garcia-Galan said that NASA is evaluating groups of launch vehicles to serve the program's needs and expects to announce an initial set of purchases soon.
The procurement push comes as demand for launches rises and SpaceX limits new dedicated Falcon 9 bookings beyond 2028 while prioritizing Starship.
ARK Sees Launch Shortage As Neutron's Opportunity
ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire said satellite operators urgently need launch access as they expand their constellations. Keeney said Rocket Lab's Neutron "comes close to the Falcon 9" in payload capacity. ARK put Neutron's planned capacity at 13,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit, compared with about 17,000 kilograms for Falcon 9 in a partially reusable configuration.
SpaceX's growing internal launch needs could intensify the squeeze. ARK pointed to Starlink's planned deployments and upcoming StarMind AI satellites as potential demands on launch capacity, arguing that providers such as Rocket Lab could benefit if Neutron delivers.
Rocket Lab is targeting delivery of Neutron to the launch pad in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company has begun building a customer pipeline for the rocket. Kepler Communications booked a dedicated Neutron mission no earlier than 2028, giving it more control over launch timing and orbital placement than a rideshare mission.
Rocket Lab is also expanding its Electron business. A 20-launch agreement with Japan's Synspective brings the customer's total contracted Electron missions to 47, with launches scheduled between 2028 and 2031.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About RKLB?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for RKLB has been 'neutral' from a week ago amid a 14% rise in 24-hour message volumes.
One user said, "$RKLB Under $72 a share is a steal, and it's $68! This will be $120 by next spring guaranteed"
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Another user said, "$ASTS $RKLB $LUNR Easy. RKLB. They build everything in house and are not reliant on anyone. Launch demand is off the chart, NASA contracts. All solid reasons."
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RKLB stock has declined 2% year-to-date.