The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal rainfall across most of India between October and December 2026. This dry outlook follows a 13% deficit in the southwest monsoon. A strengthening El Nino continues to influence climate patterns, as international experts said the 2026 El Nino has intensified sharply through the year.
India is staring at a largely dry post-monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country between October and December 2026.
The outlook comes after the IMD declared India's rainy season over, with the southwest monsoon ending with a 13% deficit.
Meanwhile, a strengthening El Nino continues to influence the larger climate pattern.
The latest international climate assessment from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) said the 2026 El Nino has intensified sharply and is expected to remain very strong through the end of the year and into early 2027.
MOST OF INDIA TO SEE BELOW-AVERAGE RAIN
According to the IMD's latest probabilistic forecast, rainfall during October-December is likely to be below normal over most parts of India.
There are, however, important regional exceptions. Parts of northwest India and southern parts of the peninsula are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
For south Peninsular India as a whole, the seasonal rainfall is forecast to be normal, meaning between 88% and 112% of its Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA for the region during October-December is 334.13 mm, based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020.
The IMD has used the same 1971-2020 baseline for its post-monsoon climatology.
As October-December is a particularly significant rainfall period for southern India, the forecast could turn out to be quite significant.
The northeast monsoon accounts for roughly 30% of the annual rainfall of south Peninsular India, with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry receiving nearly half of their annual rainfall during the season.
EL NINO TO DRY OUT RAIN
The forecast comes against the backdrop of a rapidly strengthening El Nino over the tropical Pacific.
The September 2026 IRI assessment found the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly had reached +3°C by mid-September, with all 22 forecast models indicating that very strong El Nino conditions could persist through the winter.
El Nino is a natural warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that can alter weather patterns around the world.
In India's case, its influence is particularly important because El Nino has historically been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall, although rainfall over
India is also shaped by several other oceanic and atmospheric factors.
DRY, BUT NOT RAIN FREE
The IMD's forecast is probabilistic, meaning it identifies the most likely rainfall category rather than saying that rain will not occur.
The map also shows areas where the model has no clear signal, while some regions are expected to remain normal or wetter than normal.
For Indians, that means the broad message is one of a drier-than-usual October-December season, but the actual experience will continue to vary sharply from one region to another.
Individual weather systems can still bring spells of heavy rain even during an overall below-normal season.