Yogi vs Akhilesh: Why UP Rajya Sabha elections 2026 has become nail-biting contest between SP, BJP

The stage is set for elections to 10 Rajya Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh. Election will be held on October 16.

Nine of these ten seats are decided given the numbers in UP assembly that the parties have. But a contest for one seat is expected to emerge as a high-octane battle between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP).

The Rajya Sabha polls hold significance as they come just ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls.

BJP vs SP: Who will win 10 Rajya Sabha seats from UP?

The math is simple. Currently, eight of the 10 outgoing Uttar Pradesh seats are held by the BJP, while the SP and Mayawati's BSP hold one each.

If all goes well (no additional candidate is fielded), based on the present assembly arithmetic, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to retain seven seats, while the SP is projected to secure two. There will be no direct contest in this case. The contest for the tenth seat will thus be keenly watched

The October 16 poll could leave the BSP without representation in the Rajya Sabha as it does not have the numbers to retain Ramji Gautam's seat on its own.

But the math might change if either the SP or the BJP decides to field an additional candidate. If the SP fields three candidates, instead of two, then the entire outlook could shift drastically.

A key question will then arise: Who will win the 10th seat?

So, who will win the 10th seat?

Samajwadi Party MP Virendra Singh said on Friday his party will field a third candidate in the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, setting the stage for a nail-biting contest for aseat.

The Chandauli MP told news agency PTI that the name of the third candidate would be decided on Friday and the nomination would be filed by October 5.

On September 30, the SP had announced two nominees for the elections — veteran party leader Ram Gopal Yadav and Reliance Industries executive Dhanraj Parimal Nathwani. Both subsequently filed their nomination papers in Lucknow.

Rajya Sabha

In case of a third candidate, the BJP-led alliance currently has the numbers to secure seven seats outrightly. Meanwhile, the SP, with the Congress' support, has the strength to secure two seats.

The entry of a third SP candidate would make the contest for the remaining seat dependent on the movement of surplus votes and any cross-voting.

Understanding Rajya Sabha polls in UP | Numbers explained

The benchmark to win one Rajya Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh depends on the number of vacant seats up for election, and the number of active and voting MLAs, but it usually stabilises around 37 first-preference votes.

This simply means that each Rajya Sabha candidate will require 37 first-preference votes to win.

The Uttar Pradesh Assembly currently has 396 MLAs of the total 403 MLA. Going by the calculation, each candidate needs a vote of 36 MLAs to win a Rajya Sabha seat. The Rajya Sabha elections are based on proportional representation and single transferable vote.

How does the number stack up for SP to win the 10th seat? The SP has 101 MLAs in UP Assembly. However, its effective strength is 100 as Chail MLA Puja Pal has switched to the BJP. The SP's partner Congress has two MLAs. So, the tally of votes in favour of SP and its allies stands at 102.

With 102 votes (even if we exclude three MLAs who defected to the BJP), the SP can comfortably bag two seats (37*2=74). It will win its third seat only if the cross-voting happens. It needs about six more votes to win the last seat if the contest goes ahead.

How does the number stack up for the BJP to win the 10th seat? The BJP, which has 255 MLAs in the Vidhan Sabha, can comfortably win seven seats (37*7=259) with the support of allies. But for one more seat, the party would fall short of only two votes.

It needs 296 votes in total to win eight seats, but has only 294 MLAs in favour.

The BJP's allies in Uttar Pradesh are: Apna Dal (S) has 13 MLAs, RLD has nine, SBSP has six, Nishad has five, and the Jansatta Dal Loktantrik Party has two.

The ruling party also has the support of Puja Pal, a rebel who is still listed with the SP but has joined the BJP, and that of unaffiliated MLAs Manoj Pandey, Rakesh Pratap Singh, and Abhay Singh, who were expelled from the SP in June 2025 for cross-voting in the 2024 Rajya Sabha polls.

With this, the BJP-led NDA has a total of 294 MLAs in the UP Assembly.

Verdict: If the SP fields a third candidate and no cross-voting happens, the BJP can win the eight seats easily. In case of cross-voting, even the SP holds a chance to win the last remaining seat.

The BJP is yet to announce its Rajya Sabha candidates.

The Election Commission has scheduled polling for October 16, with October 6 being the last date for filing nominations.