Why Samajwadi Party, Congress are playing hardball before UP seat talks

With the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections approaching, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress appear to have entered a phase of pressure and counter-pressure ahead of seat-sharing talks, each insisting their alliance is firm even while making moves that irritate the other.

For the Congress, which has just two MLAs but won six Lok Sabha seats in 2024, the negotiations are also about securing enough space to rebuild itself in a state it once dominated. For the SP, which won 37 Lok Sabha seats and remains the larger Opposition force in UP, the question is how much ground to concede to a junior partner while preserving the coalition that delivered the Opposition its best result in the state in years.

Leaders of both parties, however, insist the public sparring should not be confused with actual negotiations.

"The alliance and seat sharing is going to be decided by the top leadership. They have not said anything. Only when they say something will there be a reason to raise questions about the alliance," SP Rajya Sabha MP Javed Ali told The Indian Express.

Congress raises the stakes

On September 21, Saharanpur MP Imran Masood publicly urged Akhilesh to settle the alliance quickly. "Finalise the alliance if you have to have an alliance," he said, adding that if Akhilesh had to lead, "dil bhi aapko bada karna padega (you will have to have a large heart)".

On October 2, Congress appointed Masood the Uttar Pradesh Congress's working president as part of an organisational revamp. His elevation has attracted attention within the SP, particularly because the Congress is expected to seek several Muslim-dominated constituencies that the SP considers part of its core political space.

The Congress's UP in-charge Rajendra Pal Gautam has raised the stakes further. After initially speaking of 150 seats, he recently said: "Who asked for 150 seats? I had actually spoken about 200," arguing for "equal respect and equal share".

SP voices have pushed back. Party MP Shiv Pal Singh Patel has said giving the Congress even 50 seats could mean sacrificing constituencies that the alliance could otherwise win.

Akhilesh has been more restrained, saying seats would be decided on winnability. "Baat humare liye seat ki nahi hogi, jeetne wali seat ki hogi. Jo jite woh seat le le (For us, it will not be about seats but winnable seats. Whoever can win should get the seat)," he said.

Masood responded with his own formulation: "Seat hogi tabhi jeet hogi (There can be a victory only when there is a seat)."

'Pre-negotiation noise'

SP national spokesperson Fakhrul Hasan Chaand dismissed the exchanges as part of the pre-negotiation noise. "There is democracy in our alliance. Imran Masood speaks; SP leaders also speak. All of this will go on till the seat-sharing deal is done," he said.

"The national leadership of the two parties is constantly in touch and is in talks. The deal will happen in Delhi and Lucknow. Those in between have no say," he said, before adding: "We had halved their tally in 2024; in 2027, we will sweep them away."

Congress spokesperson Anshu Awasthi struck a similar note. "Whatever statements are being made are views being expressed by some leaders with personal ambitions, be they from the SP or the Congress. There are no differences on the alliance question," he said.

Calling the alliance an "imperative for both parties", he said: "Every party wants to have a respectful and equal space in an alliance. But these things will be discussed when they come to the table."

Moves beyond seat numbers

The jockeying has gone beyond public claims over seats.

On October 3, Swami Prasad Maurya met Gandhi and subsequently announced that his Apni Janata Party would join the INDIA bloc. Maurya, an Other Backward Class (OBC) leader who has previously been with the Bahujan Samaj Party and the BJP, had joined the SP before the 2022 elections before falling out with it.

According to reports, Akhilesh responded with a quip during a media briefing: "In logon ko joining ka form kahan se mil raha hai?" -- where are these people getting the joining form from?

A day after meeting Rahul, Maurya met Tazeen Fatma, the wife of jailed SP leader Azam Khan. Congress leaders have themselves reached out to Azam's political space in recent months, including during the controversy surrounding Mohammad Ali Jauhar University. The SP, meanwhile, has repeatedly underlined that Azam remains within its fold.

If the Congress is expanding its contacts, the SP too has kept other doors open.

The AAP's Sanjay Singh has met Akhilesh on several occasions even as the Arvind Kejriwal-led party prepares for the UP polls. The contacts acquire significance since the Congress and the AAP are rivals in Punjab and the latter is no longer part of the INDIA bloc.

Ali played down the meetings but left the future open. "We have good relations with the AAP. We have also been on the same page on several political issues. They left the INDIA bloc, but the parties and our leaders have maintained relations. We did not field any candidate in Delhi during the Assembly polls. We even campaigned for them. In democracy, alliances keep breaking up and reviving. Leaders keep meeting. We will see what happens in future," he said.

Asked if this could irritate the Congress, Ali said: "In the past, the Congress also maintained relations with the AAP at the Union level while fighting it in Punjab."

SP leaders have also made overtures to NISHAD Party chief and UP Minister Sanjay Nishad, whose relationship with the BJP has periodically seen strains. Recently, Nishad even sat alongside Chaand at a protest against the police allegedly not registering a case following the death of a Nishad community member.

"This is a question that should be asked of the NDA," Chaand said. "How many seats is the NDA giving to Nishad ji? I hope they will give him 30-35 seats and (SBSP leader Om Prakash) Rajbhar ji 100 seats. Then there is the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Apna Dal."

There has been no similarly explicit SP overture to the SBSP, which fought the 2022 polls with the SP before returning to the NDA. But Akhilesh recently sent a broader signal to former associates, saying: "In this atmosphere of elections, forget all bitter exchanges. Those who have gone astray, and those associates who want to join us... we will forget everything that has happened in the past."

Neither Nishad nor Rajbhar has indicated that they are leaving the NDA.

For now, therefore, these moves point to manoeuvring before the bargain. The Congress is demonstrating that it can cultivate its own Muslim and OBC leadership and bring new players into the Opposition fold; the SP is pointing to its greater electoral strength while signalling it has options by keeping channels open with the AAP and present and former allies now in the NDA.

Both sides, however, insist that when the real bargaining begins, the argument will ultimately be settled by four leaders: Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi on one side, Akhilesh Yadav and Ramgopal Yadav on the other.