Victory-margin challenge for BJP: Twin factors to decide fate of two bypoll seats today

Tuesday’s bypolls in Nandigram and Rejinagar have set two major challenges for the BJP: securing a handsome number of minority votes and ensuring a free and fair election.

Multiple sources in the BJP said victory in Nandigram is obvious, but meeting the target of the victory margin that chief minister Suvendu Adhikari has set for the seat he left requires a significant number of minority votes.

In the case of Rejinagar, a minority-dominated pocket, the party needs to secure some Muslim votes to ensure victory despite the split of votes among multiple Opposition parties.

BJP state president Samik Bhattacharya claimed on Tuesday that his party would win both seats with a decent margin this time. “In both seats, BJP candidates will win with huge margins. In Nandigram, the victory margin will be at least five times more than the margin Suvendu Adhikari won from there. In Rejinagar, the candidate will win with a comfortable margin,” said Bhattacharya.

In the April election, Suvendu Adhikari won the Nandigram seat by 9,665 votes and in Rejinagar the AJUP candidate Humayun Kabir won by 58,876 votes.

Last month, Suvendu had claimed that the people of Nandigram said he would win by a margin higher than that in the Falta election, where the BJP won by nearly 1.09 lakh votes. Suvendu later repeatedly said that the margin would be “unimaginable”. Both Bhattacharya and Suvendu have tried their best to woo minority voters in Nandigram and Rejinagar to vote in favour of their party.

Nandigram, known for its 2007 land movement that played a major role in bringing the Trinamool Congress government to power in Bengal, will witness an election for the first time without the name and symbol of Mamata Banerjee’s party.

A step forward, BJP sources said the withdrawal of Mamata’s Trinamool candidate had given some additional advantage to Suvendu. However, after the arrest and bail of Congress nominee Milan Pradhan, he had emerged as the prime Opposition face in Nandigram.

“Getting minority votes is very important for the BJP in this election, particularly for Suvendu Adhikari to showcase that his development model has also attracted minority voters towards the party. Victory in the two seats, specifically in Rejinagar, will help the chief minister to create an Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath-like impression among his Delhi leaders,” said political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty, adding that another major challenge for the BJP is to ensure a free and fair election in a changed political environment.

“If the Falta repoll is left aside, this is the first time elections will take place under the BJP government. It is a challenge for the BJP to show the people of Bengal elections without violence and free and fair. If tomorrow’s election witnesses violence or incidents like rigging, the circle of BJP’s Trinamoolisation will be completed,” he added.

The Congress and the CPM also have a challenge to establish themselves as the principal Opposition in Bengal after the Trinamool split into two camps and temporarily lost its name and symbol.