TN bypolls: Challenges before Vijay's TVK government as political equations shift

Fact is stranger than fiction. Tamil Nadu politics is no exception. Actor Vijay's meteoric rise to power in April has nearly eclipsed the two Dravidian parties from Tamil Nadu's political landscape, at least for now.

Since 1967, Tamil Nadu has been ruled by either the DMK or the AIADMK, except for brief periods of President's Rule. The domination of the two Dravidian majors came to an end with Vijay's TVK capturing power in the April 2026 Assembly elections.

But Vijay's rise has also triggered a dramatic political realignment in the state.

AIADMK under pressure

The post-April scenario saw senior AIADMK leaders, along with their supporters, switch over to TVK. Among them were Madurantakam MLA Maragatham Kumaravel and Dharapuram legislator P Sathyabama. Both joined TVK on May 25.

Their resignations as MLAs led to vacancies in the two reserved constituencies, paving the way for the October 6 by-elections. With only one day left, campaigning for the bypolls has entered a high-intensity phase, with rhetoric intensifying and parties trading allegations and counter-allegations.

TVK has retained both former AIADMK legislators as its candidates.

The by-elections, therefore, are not merely contests for two Assembly seats. They are also a test of whether the political shift from AIADMK to TVK has electoral acceptance in these constituencies.

The AIADMK, founded by matinee idol M G Ramachandran, or MGR, has weakened considerably following the defection of senior leaders to TVK soon after the party's dismal performance in the Assembly polls.

The NDA, meanwhile, comprising the AIADMK, BJP, PMK and other smaller parties, has witnessed the exit of the AMMK, which currently supports TVK.

The PMK has chosen to remain neutral in the by-elections. There is speculation that it could move closer to TVK in the post-election scenario.

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The political churn has not been confined to the AIADMK camp.

The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance in the state has begun to fracture in the aftermath of its stunning rout in the Assembly polls. Its long-standing ally, the Congress, formally ended its alliance with the DMK and joined the TVK-led government on May 6.

The Left parties are currently supporting the TVK government from outside. However, they are not supporting TVK candidates in the bypolls. They are contesting the bypolls as a Left grouping. The CPI(M) has fielded P Suganthi in Madurantakam, while the CPI has fielded P Lakshmanan in Dharapuram.

The VCK and MDMK, which were part of the DMK-led alliance during the April elections, are now with the TVK-led Secular Social Justice Victory Alliance (SSJVA).

The Assembly election result has dramatically reshaped Tamil Nadu's traditional political alignments. Parties that were aligned with the DMK before the April election are now either part of the TVK-led coalition or supporting the TVK government from outside

.DMK first off mark, names candidates for bypolls.TVK's numbers

TVK currently has 107 MLAs in the 234-member State Assembly, although seven seats -- six following the resignations of AIADMK MLAs -- are now vacant, including Madurantakam and Dharapuram. Chief Minister Vijay won two seats and retained Perambur, leaving the Tiruchirappalli East seat vacant.

While two seats are going to bypolls, the other five -- Tiruchirappalli East, Perundurai, Ambasamudram, Viralimalai and Karur -- are caught up in election-related litigation.

The main Opposition, the DMK, has 59 MLAs and the AIADMK 41. The Congress has five, the PMK four, while the VCK, CPI, CPI(M) and IUML have two each. The DMDK, BJP and AMMK have one each.

TVK has thus grown in political strength since the April elections, with defections further altering the balance in the Assembly.

But electoral victory and political consolidation are two different things. The new government now faces the more difficult task of demonstrating that it can govern effectively.

.'TVK tops cash-for-votes list': CPI(M) alleges money distribution ahead of October 6 bypolls.Challenges before the Vijay government

TVK has faced criticism over some of the serious issues plaguing the state, particularly law and order and crimes against women.

In April, Vijay campaigned on a plank of improving law and order, curbing crimes against women, and providing a corruption-free government.

However, the DMK in the Assembly recently cited more than 550 serious crimes during the TVK government's first 116 days. The government disputed the Opposition's interpretation and said that cases were being registered and investigated.

Corruption is another issue that has generated controversy. There has been a dispute over a Rs 5.54-crore tender connected with the relocation of the Chief Minister's Office. The BJP reportedly alleged irregularities, while the TVK rejected the allegation.

The government is also under pressure to deliver on its election promises. AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami has argued that some major promises made by TVK were not fulfilled in the government's first Budget.

Then comes the larger question of the economy and public finances. Can the government fund its welfare promises while managing Tamil Nadu's large debt burden?

For Vijay, therefore, the political challenge is no longer simply about winning an election. It is about converting a spectacular electoral breakthrough into a stable and effective government.

.Residents threaten to boycott Dharapuram bypoll over lack of basic amenities.What is at stake in the by-elections?

Against this backdrop, the October 6 by-elections assume greater significance.

A victory for TVK would strengthen Vijay's political authority and provide the government with an additional electoral endorsement only months after taking office. It would also offer political validation to the AIADMK leaders who switched sides and are contesting the seats on TVK tickets.

For DMK leader M K Stalin, winning one or both of the October 6 bypolls would establish the DMK as the principal electoral challenger to TVK.

An AIADMK victory would demonstrate that its former constituencies have not simply transferred to TVK.

But the results will need to be interpreted carefully. Two constituencies cannot, by themselves, establish a statewide political trend.

What they can do is provide an early indication of how voters are responding to the dramatic political realignment that followed the April election.

However, it can be said that Chief Minister Vijay has his hands full. With the people closely monitoring the new government's performance, the day may not be far away when Vijay is nudged into a prove-or-perish situation.

.Veterans fight it out for victory in Madurantakam bypoll.Follow The New Indian Express channel on WhatsApp