The significance of the Cardiff MoU

On September 14, the First Ministers of Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland came together in Cardiff, the capital city of Wales, to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and declared, "For the first time ever, people across these islands have First Ministers...who are all committed to independence from the United Kingdom. For people watching across these islands -- for people watching around the world -- there could be no clearer sign that Westminster's time is coming to an end." The MoU is being seen as a significant political statement by all three parties towards constitutional independence from the U.K.

The U.K. is often described as a multi-national state (or a State of Unions), developed gradually over several centuries. As per the Cabinet Office, the U.K. is comprised of four 'nations' -- England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The nations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have strong cultural identities, their own language and customs as well as complicated histories vis-a-vis England, marked by conquests and rebellions. It is owing to such strong assertions of identity and independence that these nations within the U.K. have been granted varying degrees of self-government and devolved powers. However, calls for independence or an absolute devolution of powers have always remained in public discourse, and today, with the leaders of all three nations being vocal proponents of self-determination, the mandate has been brought to Westminster in full force.

However, independence does not look the same for all three nations; it's characterised by their specific contexts, histories and geopolitical locations.

The Irish question

Northern Ireland is governed by a power-sharing agreement known as consociationalism, as laid down in the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. Considering the tumultuous history of violence between the pro-Irish (Nationalists or Republicans) and pro-Union (Loyalists or Unionists) groups, consociationalism mandates that power should be shared between all sectarian groups equally.Therefore, both the Nationalist and the Unionist blocs need to hold power together. After elections, the largest party in the largest political bloc will hold the position of First Minister, while the largest party in the second-largest political bloc can have the post of Deputy First Minister. Currently, Sinn Fein, the largest Nationalist party, is in power, with its Vice-President, Michelle O'Neill, leading the country.

However, pro-Irish groups in Northern Ireland and Sinn Fein do not wish for independence; they wish to unite with the Republic of Ireland. Owing to such strong sympathies, the Good Friday Agreement has a clause which keeps this option open -- that the people of Northern Ireland could seek reunification with Ireland any time, subject to a referendum. However, a referendum can be called only by the U.K. Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if no other referendum has taken place in the past seven years or if the Secretary thinks that a majority of people wish to leave the U.K. and join Ireland.

The Unionists have strongly pushed back against the MoU. Emma Little-Pengelly, the Deputy First Minister, said the MoU was signed by Ms. O'Neill in her capacity as a leader of Sinn Fein and not as First Minister. It isn't, she said, "on behalf of Northern Ireland".

Surprisingly, the Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin was also critical of the move. While the Republic of Ireland has always stood firm in its demand for a united Ireland, Mr. Martin said that Sinn Fein does not have the right approach. He said that the party may have set back the cause of Irish unity by aligning the movement with the Scottish and Welsh causes.

Scotland's independence push

Many in Scotland, on the other hand, wish for it to become an independent country. Scotland voted for devolution in a 1997 referendum, and the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999. However, ever since the Scottish National Party (SNP) took power in the Holyrood (Scottish Parliament) in 2007, the demand for an absolute devolution of powers has been in the public discourse. The party had been consistently pushing for a referendum in Scotland on the question of independence, with one finally being held in 2014. While the referendum saw a massive turnout, the result was a major blow to the SNP; the Yes camp, which believed that Scotland should be independent, lost, receiving 44.7% of the votes. The No campaign won 55.3% of the total votes. While this led to a mild dampener for a period of time, the SNP, under Nicola Sturgeon, revived the demand again post-Brexit. She alleged that even though 62% of the Scottish people voted to remain in the European Union (EU), the U.K. left the alliance; this underlined the importance of self-determination for the Scottish people.

Currently, John Swinney, Prime Minister and leader of the SNP, upholds the same demand. While he advocated for the steady and gradual devolution of powers from Westminster when he first took the post of First Minister in 2024, the victory of pro-Independence parties in the recent state elections, held in May 2026, has given Mr. Swinney and the SNP fresh hope. Together with the Scottish Green Party, the Holyrood now has 73 pro-independence members. Mr. Swinney has taken this to mean a shift in public opinion about the need for total devolution and has strongly pushed for mechanisms to hold a second referendum by 2031.

A shift in Wales

The strong stand taken by Wales in signing the MoU is somewhat of a departure from its earlier position. The nation, a stronghold of the Labour Partyfor nearly a century, now has a non-Labour government led by Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru.

Plaid Cymru, established in 1925, has always held the ideal of self-determination at the centre of its political project. However, support for an independent Welsh nation has been a relatively minor position within the country as compared to Scotland. For example, the Welsh referendum in 1997, which was the first step to devolution of powers and the creation of a Welsh National Assembly, passed very narrowly with just 50.3% voting in favour of an Assembly as opposed to 49.7% who voted against the motion.

However, since then, the momentum for greater devolution from Westminster and more autonomy has been steadily gaining ground in the region. In the 2011 referendum, which was to decide whether the National Assembly for Wales should gain the power to legislate on a wider range of matters, the result was more promising with almost 63.49% voting yes for more powers as opposed to just 36.51% voting no.

The Labour Party, while being opposed to the idea of a total devolution of powers, has increasingly argued for more constitutional powers to Wales, especially regarding matters of policing and justice. In fact, in November 2021, the Labour-led Welsh government set up an Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales in order to seriously consider the possibility of an independent Wales along with other potential options such as enhanced devolution, and a more federal U.K. The Commission submitted its report in 2024 wherein it emphasised that the idea of an independent Wales cannot be kept out of popular imagination anymore even though it still does not enjoy as much as popular support as it does in Scotland. The report also underlined the possible "short-term to medium" risks especially with respect to currency, government finances, trade and movement across borders.

Therefore, Mr. Iorwerth's positioning, even while signing the MoU at Cardiff with Scotland and Northern Ireland, has been much more mellow than the other two regions. He has ruled out pushing for a referendum in his current term but has insisted that the possibility should be kept open; he stated that the people of Wales should have the option "to decide its own future". Mr. Iorwerth has emphasised that "power genuinely needs to be brought closer to people and communities".

Response from Westminster

The U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham came to power riding on the agenda of more devolution of powers to local regions. He is a strong supporter of decentralisation; of giving more power to local governments and communities. Dubbed the 'King of the North' for his advocacy for northern England while he was the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Mr. Burnham has often spoken on the "chasm between the people and Westminster politics". In fact, in order to decentralise and shift power from central London, he has established a northern branch of 10, Downing Street in Manchester.

However, when Mr. Burnham visited Northern Ireland in August, he categorically stated that a border poll (referendum) on Irish unity was "off the table". He said that his focus was to fix immediate crises such as the cost-of-living pressure and problems with public services. The reactions to his comments were sharp, with nationalist parties taking it as a denouncement of the Good Friday Agreement. Sinn Féin's president Mary Lou McDonald, who was the fourth signatory to the MoU, had stated that "We have the right to a referendum. We have the right to decide our future.... We will not accept or tolerate any Prime Minister telling us that right is off the table."

The response to Scottish calls for a referendum have also been pretty much the same. When Mr. Swinney had written to Mr. Burnham, and asked if a mechanism for a referendum could be enshrined in law, Mr. Burnham stated that a Scottish border poll is currently "off-limits".

At the September 14 meeting, Mr. Swinney declared that Andy Burnham would be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

The EU demand

Another significant aspect of the MoU was the call to reintegrate with the EU. The statement reads, "Brexit has damaged our economies, and limited opportunities for our people. Europe is our common home, and we believe the future of our nations belongs in the European Union".

During the Brexit vote in 2016, Scotland (62%) and Northern Ireland (55%) had voted to remain. In Wales, roughly 52% voted to leave the EU, although a large minority voted to remain. All three governing parties are now resolute in their stance that the Brexit vote has been a total political failure. Even though a Trade and Cooperation Agreement has been signed with the EU, these nations allege that "non-tariff barriers" such as extra and time consuming paper work add to import and export delays.

However, reintegration would not be easy. Even if all three nations were to leave the U.K., reintegrating into the EU is a long process which could take years. For example, Montenegro has been in accession negotiations since 2012, and Serbia since 2014.

The Cardiff MoU is not a legal or multi-lateral treaty; it is a significant political statement by the governing parties of three regions, with varied histories, to put pressure on U.K.'s asymmetric federal model. Westminster's constant refrain of 'there are more important things to worry about' gives these nations the idea that autonomy and devolution of powers is not seen as important enough by the U.K. Parliament. For a Prime Minister who has made decentralisation his central campaign, Mr. Burnham would be wise to pay more heed to the nations' aspirations.