Chirag Paswan's LJP eyes UP expansion, may contest 2027 assembly elections solo

Union minister Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), a constituent of the NDA, is weighing the option of contesting the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections independently as it seeks to expand beyond Bihar and establish itself in the country's most populous state.

The party's plans are expected to gain momentum on October 8, the death anniversary of its founder and Chirag's father, Ram Vilas Paswan, a prominent Dalit leader and former Union minister. This year, the party has shifted the event from Bihar to Lucknow, signalling its growing interest in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the assembly polls.

Although the party marked Paswan's first death anniversary in Delhi in 2021, this will be its first large-scale observance in Uttar Pradesh.

The party held a few political events in UP this year, including the "Youth Bole Toh" programme in Prayagraj (September 27-28) and its state executive committee meeting in Lucknow (July 15). During the youth-centric event aimed at Gen Z, students, and farmers, Chirag officially announced that the LJP (RV) was preparing to contest all 403 seats in the state.

Against this backdrop, Thursday's event in Lucknow is being positioned as an opportunity to showcase the party's ambition, strength and appeal in a state where Dalits account for around 21% of the population, according to the 2011 Census.

Going solo would not be unprecedented for the LJP(RV). In Bihar in 2020, Chirag led the undivided LJP out of the NDA's state-level seat-sharing arrangement amid differences with the JD(U), fielding candidates independently while maintaining support for the BJP at the national level. The party also contested the 2017 Manipur and 2019 Jharkhand assembly elections independently.

The move also sends an underlying message to the BJP. "Going forward, if we get a raw deal in seat-sharing negotiations within the NDA, the party will be ready to go solo and contest all 403 seats in UP," said a senior party leader.

The party has invited the chief ministers of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, along with ministers, MPs and MLAs from both states, cutting across party lines.

"We have invited the chief minister of UP, all ministers, MPs and MLAs from UP to the event, where we will share the ideals of our founder," said Rajesh Bhatt, national spokesperson of the LJP (RV).

Invitations have also been extended to political leaders in Bihar, a party legislator said, on condition of anonymity.

For the LJP (RV), Uttar Pradesh offers both an electoral opportunity and a test of its ability to grow into a national political force. The state has 403 assembly constituencies and the country's largest electorate, making it a crucial arena for any party seeking a wider political footprint.

"Our leaders are aware that for the party to grow and attain national recognition, it has to make inroads into UP. We are not averse to testing the political waters there, where we have nothing to lose," a party insider said.

The leadership has asked its state unit to strengthen the organisation and establish a presence across all 403 constituencies. This would help the party prepare to contest seats allocated to it under an NDA seat-sharing arrangement. It also wants to retain the option of going it alone if negotiations do not yield a satisfactory deal, party leaders said.

"The strategy presents a delicate balancing act for Chirag Paswan. As a Union minister and NDA ally, he has an interest in preserving ties with the BJP. But expanding the party's independent electoral base may strengthen its bargaining power in seat-sharing negotiations and reduce its dependence on Bihar," said political commentator Gyanendra Yadav, professor in the department of sociology, College of Commerce, Arts and Science in Patna.

The move will also put the LJP (RV) in competition with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which has traditionally drawn substantial support from Dalit voters. However, the extent of any electoral impact would depend on the LJP (RV)'s organisational reach, candidate selection and ability to attract voters beyond its existing support base, Yadav added.

Uttar Pradesh is not the only state on the party's radar. It is also exploring its options for the assembly elections in Punjab and Chhattisgarh next year. During a recent visit to Raipur, Chirag said the party's state committees would decide whether to contest independently in the three states.

The statement is also being read as a signal to the BJP that the LJP (RV) expects its ambitions to be taken into account during NDA seat-sharing negotiations.

The LJP (RV) enters these discussions with a modest but established parliamentary presence. It won all five Lok Sabha seats it contested in Bihar as part of the NDA in 2024. It currently has 19 MLAs in Bihar, 2 in Nagaland, and 1 in Jharkhand.

The Lucknow event, therefore, will be more than a commemoration of Ram Vilas Paswan. It will offer an early indication of how seriously Chirag intends to pursue an independent political base outside Bihar -- and how far he is willing to test the limits of his partnership with the BJP ahead of a crucial round of assembly elections.

Meanwhile, the JD(U), another key constituent of the NDA, is also eyeing to contest the UP polls. It has scheduled a state-level meeting of party workers at Varanasi to be attended by its national working president, Sanjay Jha, and health minister Nishant, son of party patriarch Nitish Kumar, a former chief minister of Bihar.