US Midterms 2026: Why Trump's power is at stake as Iran war, economy weigh on voters

US Midterms 2026: Voters in America will go to the polls on 3 November to elect a third of the US Senate and all members of the House of Representatives in what are known as midterm elections.

The Republicans currently have majorities in both chambers of Congress. But their prospects of retaining this control look increasingly dire, according to Bruce Stokes, Associate Fellow, US and North America Programme at British think tank Chatham House.

The Republicans' chances have been dragged down by President Donald Trump's near-record low public approval rating and voter dissatisfaction with his handling of the Iran war and the economy, among other things, Stokes wrote.

"Democrats appear poised to take advantage, with most pundits suggesting they will retake control of at least the House of Representatives."

Essentially, the midterms won't decide who occupies the White House. Trump remains president, but the upcoming polls could determine how much room he has to legislate, spend, make appointments and operate without congressional resistance.

Here's what you need to know about the midterms.

"General" election basically means it is an election that happens in all states and territories at the same time. While the Midterm Primaries were held earlier in the year and determined the nominees, the Midterm General Election is on the second Tuesday in November, just as the Presidential Election is every 4 years. This year, the elections will be held on 3 November.

Congress is the Legislative Branch of the US government, made up of 435 members of the House of Representatives and 100 Senators. Congress provides a check and balance on the Executive Branch of the government, led by the President and Vice President. A change in the composition of Congress can create a dramatic power shift in an administration's functioning.

Midterms take place midway through a Presidential term to empower voters to voice their approval or disapproval of the current administration's performance.

Midterms are a face-off between our two major parties - Democratic and Republican. These elections can be just as heated as a presidential race because of what is at stake. That winning party will gain control of the legislature, which holds the power to enact laws, declare war, and much more.

The party represented by the President hopes to gain majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the midterms. This will smooth the way for the President's legislative agenda to be approved by Congress.

The midterm elections are being held at a very critical time, not just in the US but world over. The US has been engaged in a war with Iran. The war began after the US and Israel launched earlier in February.

The war has had far-reaching consequences, affecting not only Washington but also economies worldwide. Despite US President Donald Trump assuring Americans that the country would remain shielded from the war's impact, the US economy is now feeling the effects, with gasoline prices hitting a record high.

Also, 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election this fall. U.S. senators are elected to six-year terms

There are 2 Senators from each state, and because of staggered terms, Senators from the same state are never up for election in the same year. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will also go to the polls, as these members serve 2-year terms.

The state's population determines the number of representatives it has.

History gives the Republicans plenty of reason to fret. The incumbent president's party has suffered a net loss of seats in Congress in all but two midterms since the 1930s. The only exceptions were Bill Clinton (1998) and George W. Bush (2002), both of whom had sky-high approval ratings.

Trump's approval ratings are clearly no good news for Republicans.

Election analysts estimate that only around 21 House seats are close contests or 'toss-ups'. Still, most pundits forecast Democrats winning between 220 and 230 seats overall - a relatively comfortable majority, according to Chatham House

The Democrats need to flip just four districts to take control of the House (if they hold on to all their current seats), CBS reports. The Democrats also need to take just four Republican-held states to win control of the Senate.

But that's a tougher task than flipping the House because far fewer Senate seats are up for election, and each requires a statewide victory, says the report.

President Trump just hit a record low not seen in more than three decades, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll. The Wall Street Journal poll showed Trump with a 37% approval rating - the lowest of any president right before a midterm election since at least 1990. Another 61% of voters disapproved of Trump, according to the poll.

Only one president since 1950 has headed into a midterm with an approval rating below 40 per cent: George W Bush in 2006 (at 37 per cent), when his Republicans lost 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate.

Despite his low polling numbers, Trump is vowing to give "a lot of speeches" in tight races to help Republican candidates. Some of those candidates are quietly asking the White House to keep him away, according to Politico's reporting

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Trump announced a 32-day campaign tour ahead of the November 3 election, explicitly seeking to help Republicans retain Congress. The outcome will shape the legislative environment for his final two years in office

Whether it's gas prices pushed up by the US-Iran war or consumer goods prices rising because of Trump's tariffs, pocketbook issues predominate in midterm polling, CBS said.

Turnout in midterms is always lower than in presidential election years, so each party will be seeking ways to motivate its base. For the Democrats, weakening Trump's power could be that driving force. For the Republicans, stoking fear about what a Democratic-controlled Congress would do to the economy is a key advertising message.

"In the end, the key factor will likely be turnout, which is historically lower in midterms than in presidential elections. Whichever party better mobilises its voters to turn up on election day will ultimately determine the outcome," Stokes wrote.

The Republicans are considered most vulnerable in North Carolina and Maine, but polling suggests they also are in tough to hang on to their Senate seats in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and even Texas, where no Democrat has won a statewide election since 1988.

The Democrats' biggest challenges appear to be in the Senate races in Michigan and New Hampshire, according to CBS.

Legislative agenda: Congress is crucial for taxes, spending, government funding and the debt ceiling. A Democratic-controlled House, for example, could block Republican efforts to use budget reconciliation for new tax-and-spending measures.

Investigations and oversight: If Democrats gain control of the House, they could use congressional committees to investigate Trump's administration and demand documents and testimony.

Senate power: Senate control is particularly significant for Trump's judicial and senior executive appointments because the Senate confirms presidential nominees.

Funding the government: Even a House majority can exert leverage over federal spending because Congress controls appropriations. Government funding and future debt-ceiling negotiations could therefore become major points of confrontation.

A verdict on Trump's presidency: Midterms are not a presidential election, but the president's standing often influences how voters behave. Historically, as mentioned above, the US President's party has usually lost House seats in midterm elections.

However, if Democrats secure a victory in the House of Representatives, they would have the power to conduct investigations and could potentially begin impeachment proceedings against Trump.

(With agency and CBS inputs)