Munich Security Conference CEO Benedikt Franke said India is ready to use its diplomatic weight to help end the Russia-Ukraine war. Franke noted, "I'm absolutely thrilled that India is finally walking the talk." He added that India now plays an active role, moving beyond just advocating for dialogue and diplomacy.
India is ready to put its diplomatic weight and relationship into efforts to bring the Russia-Ukraine war to an end, says Benedikt Franke, Vice-Chairman and CEO of the Munich Security Conference (MSC). In an expansive interview with The Indian Express, Franke, who is in Delhi for the Munich leaders' meeting (a chapter of the MSF held in different locations every year), spoke about the war and India's "active" role in trying to resolve the conflict, India's import of Russian energy, the US-Iran conflict, as well as the rise of the far right party AfD in Germany. Excerpts:
* India has moved a proposal to end the war in Ukraine, going beyond advocating for dialogue and diplomacy. How do you see this?
I'm absolutely thrilled that India is finally walking the talk. Prime Minister Modi has said the right things for a while on this issue, that there is a need for dialogue, for negotiations... However, India didn't vote accordingly in the UN... Now, not just the Ukrainian foreign minister but also President Putin (have) has said that the proposals received from the Indian side were the only ones he was seriously considering... I hope more countries take note of this development...
Read | Ukraine or West Asia, India backs all meaningful peace efforts: PM Modi
We (Europe) believe that our best hope lies with countries like India and China that have a special relationship with Russia... These countries are now finally ready to (use) their diplomatic weight and their relationship to support efforts to bring this war to an end... We hope it doesn't lead to a situation in which the aggressor (Russia) is rewarded and the victim (Ukraine) is punished... We, Europeans, will do everything we can to ensure that the Ukrainians end up in the strongest possible negotiation position... I just hope India sort of doubles down on these very promising signs.
* Why do you think the needle has moved for India?
The Ukraine-Russia war comes at a cost for everyone. Countries like India need stability and predictability in global trade and relations... India needs to continue on its growth trajectory, to pull hundreds of millions out of poverty... Another (reason) is that multi-alignment is great on paper. It also comes to a natural limit at some point. Civilians are dying every day in Ukraine, civilian infrastructure is destroyed... How can you be a liberal democracy, position yourself as a leader in this world on inter-State cooperation, on development, and not act on blatant breaches of international law? And then, India is becoming more ambitious in a lot of fields, putting stuff in space, being an economic or technological powerhouse. But, on the diplomatic front, I don't think India's actions to date matched its self-perception.
Read | We are in talks with both Russia and Ukraine: Jaishankar
* Critics in Europe and the West say India is still buying Russian energy. India argues that it is acting in self-interest.
It's perfectly okay to buy Russian oil and gas, but I wish that when you go into the shop to buy it, you don't kiss the shopkeeper... Why do we need selfies at the BRICS summit? Why do we need the embrace between Modi and Putin? Maybe we are underestimating the close emotional ties between India and Russia... We just hope that this special relationship can be, in a way, used to end the stalemate we are seeing. And by putting a little pressure on its favourite shopkeeper, India could make a major difference in the war.
* What do you make of US President Donald Trump's efforts for peace in the Russia-Ukraine war?
I have been criticised in the past for praising President Trump for trying. I think trying is better than not trying, and I wish there were a European-led effort, but there is not. And so, everyone that tries to solve this without throwing the Ukrainians in front of the bus deserves praise. I am not 100% sure that President Trump's efforts and the focus on or connection to business interests of the United States in Russian resources was very helpful... It is perfectly okay for the United States to do business with Russia. At some point, I hope the European Union and India will do more business with Russia. At the end of the day, we want a stable, prosperous and constructive Russia. No one wants a tumbling giant like Russia...
But first, (it is) based on an expectation that this war comes to an end, that aggression ends, that the sovereign territory of Ukraine is restored... If we have no agreement on that, having an agreement on business sends the wrong signal... But I could imagine that if you Indians broke the ice now, the US joining such an effort would make a huge difference.
* Is it still a stalemate after four-and a-half-years of the Ukraine war, and what does it mean for European security?
For Ukraine, to be perfectly honest, it's quite a success that they are still there. Europe has not done enough to help Ukraine win. Hence, it has not won. But we have done a lot to help them survive, get their house in order, and become a leader in defence technology. They are now producing most of the stuff they need themselves... We need to appreciate that this country, which is only a quarter of the population of Russia and only a fraction of its economic potential, has held out for four years...
I don't want to paint a rosy picture. The winter will be terrible. The Russians have destroyed so much energy and other infrastructure... But they (the Ukrainians) are still there on a lot of sovereign territory, and here and there, they actually win battles, produce what we call iconoclastic victories and deep strikes into Russian territory. They, by the way, never attack civilian infrastructure...
Now the question is, will Europe step up its effort to bring Ukraine into a good negotiating position? Will the US realise once again who the actual aggressor is? Will India and other powerhouses put a little pressure on Putin? I have no answer.
* How do you see the energy security issue playing out given the war in West Asia, on top of the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
I am quite pessimistic that without a larger alliance of countries working, this conflict will be solved any time soon. I do not believe in some American predictions. I do not believe in the miraculous disappearance of the Houthis. I do not believe in a sudden end to Iranian ambitions... I wish for a stronger European role, a stronger American role, and a stronger Asian role in finding a diplomatic solution.
I fear there is an implicit assumption of a division of labour globally in these conflicts. Europeans believe that is American-caused and it needs to be American-solved. Americans believe that Ukraine is Europe's problem. If we continue this silo thinking... I don't think we will see a solution... (The Iran conflict) is also driving up prices in Germany at a time when our domestic politics are in a difficult place, when our industry is in a difficult place. That increases the chances of the right or the left fringes of the political spectrum to win.
* Do you think the rise of the right and the extreme right is here to stay, especially in Germany?
As long as the political centre doesn't find clear answers to some of the worries that the population in Germany, but also across the world, has - personal security, job prospects, prosperity for their kids, crime, migration, culture - and enters into a national debate on these, the political extremes will be further empowered... Global governance, global multilateralism, will not be revitalised...
How many Indians believe that the UN is their best chance? How many Indians put real faith into the World Bank and the IMF?... Take their worries, justified or not, seriously, and provide real, value-added solutions. If we don't, the extreme ends will win, and whether it's left or right really makes no difference. In Germany, the extreme left is pretty close to the extreme right.
* Germany has a very close relationship with China, and the recent meeting between US President Trump and President Xi Jinping indicates some kind of rapprochement.
The two superpowers need to de-escalate, need to clear the air occasionally. Hence it is to be welcomed... It's perfectly okay to be friends with China and the US at the same time, as it is perfectly okay for India to try to be friends with everyone at the same time. I mean, if multi-alignment works for you, why shouldn't it work for us?
There is still an issue with human rights. But, at the end of the day, we want a strong, prosperous China that engages constructively in international relations.
* You have been coming to India for at least a decade now. How do you see India's perception about itself, and its perception from where you sit in Germany?
I love coming to this country because the feeling of dynamism, of optimism, is just infectious and great... Indian interlocutors have become more confident. They see their economic growth rate. They see the many Indian success stories, the space programme.... (But) With superpower status come responsibilities. At some point, multi-alignment will come to a natural limit. You will have to choose sides on certain issues at some point...
India has said the right things for many years. It hasn't necessarily put its full weight behind these statements.
