Undersea tunnels, homegrown tech, and a doubled budget: India's ₹2-trillion bullet train finally gathers speed

Summary

From Surat's soaring viaducts to an undersea tunnel near Mumbai, India's ₹2-trillion bullet train is breaking ground. Shaking off delays and Japanese supply snags, a homegrown high-speed ecosystem is taking shape. Can this massive gamble finally outrun its price tag?

Surat: Along the approach to the under-construction bullet train station in Surat, a small ecosystem of businesses is already beginning to take shape. Tea stalls, food outlets, transport operators and small traders are positioning themselves around what they expect will become a new commercial node once India's first high-speed railway begins carrying passengers.

For some of them, the attraction is less about travelling on the train than about what its arrival could mean for the city. Many may never buy a bullet train ticket, but they take pride in seeing a train that has so far been associated with Japan, China and Europe take shape in their own city.

That anticipation is now being matched by a furious pace of construction on the Gujarat section of the 508-km Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail corridor. After years of land disputes, funding recalibrations and pandemic-era delays, officials say the entire stretch is now entering its final construction phase, with commercial operations targeted in stages starting with a partial stretch between Surat and Bilimora.

Railway minister Ashwini Vaishnaw is already thinking ahead -- an over 100 km long Surat-Vapi section is expected to be ready by December, with testing of India's indigenous trainsets to follow next year.

The project is no longer simply about putting a train capable of travelling at 320 km/h on a new railway. It is becoming a test bed for technologies, construction methods and operating systems that Indian Railways has never deployed at this scale.

From Japan with love

The bullet train was conceived as an Indo-Japan cooperation project in 2015.

A memorandum of cooperation signed on 12 December 2015 committed India to develop the bullet train corridor "with the use of Japanese high speed rail technologies (i.e. the Shinkansen system) and experiences".

Japan offered yen loans that could cover up to about 81% of the project cost at 0.1% a year over 50 years with 15 years of grace period.

The original approved project cost was ₹97,500 crore. That increased to about ₹1.08 trillion by the time Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe laid the foundation stone of the project in September 2017.

Almost the entire loan promised for the project has been sanctioned and nearly 70% of it already disbursed, according to statements from the Japan International Cooperation Agency, the body through which the loans are disbursed, and India's Press Information Bureau.

Beyond the loan, Japanese help includes a range of technical contributions -- feasibility studies, fundamental and intricate design work, training programmes in Japan, collaboration on station area development, and the deployment of Japanese Shinkansen experts to work alongside the Indian executing agency, a special purpose vehicle called the National High-Speed Rail Corporation Ltd (Nhsrcl).

The bullet train project initially decided to use the Japanese running Shinkansen E5 series as under the loan terms only Japanese manufacturers were eligible. However, Japan said in December 2024 that E5 production was being phased out and that the East Japan Railway Company (JR East), the bullet train manufacturer, had begun designing the next generation E-10. Being designed for speeds up to 320 km/h, it is expected to have more safety features, cargo handling facilities, an earthquake resistant design and new braking systems.

Nonetheless, E-10 is expected to be ready for commercial runs only in 2030 -- and Indian deliveries could be even further delayed.

The offer left India with a sequencing problem. The official target for Indian bullet train service is August 2027. Waiting for the E10 would have left the completed Surat-Vapi infrastructure without trains for many years.

So, India decided on a mix of technologies to start the train service faster -- the corridor now combines Japanese Shinkansen-derived technology with systems being developed from other technology ecosystems, including a European signalling system and coaches made in India.

Meanwhile, the terms of the loan are being honoured as most of the civil, electrical and track work is being executed with Japanese supervision and imports of exclusive project related equipment and components from Japan, Indian officials say.

Nonetheless, the slow progress of the project have led to tensions with Japan, Financial Times reported on 7 October. In fact, Hideki Makihara, a former Japanese justice minister, posted a critical message on X earlier this year blaming India for the delays and pointing out Japan's exclusion from the signal system. "They just don't keep promises, no matter what," he wrote. "I feel 100% that the reason this hasn't moved forward is entirely on the Indian side."

The post received about 2.6 million views.

Let's take a closer look at the project's components, the many blocks that make the system unique -- and also tough to execute at speed. For this piece, this writer travelled about 70 km, between Surat and Bilimora, to access the project's progress.

BEML @ 280 km/h

India has chosen to develop its own high-speed trainsets through BEML, India's metro car manufacturer.

The first two prototypes from BEML will be eight-coach trains capable of a maximum test/design speed of 280 km/h. They are expected to initially operate at around 250 km/h, while BEML is also conceptualising a future version capable of 350 km/h billed as B-35.

Officials at Nhsrcl expect the first BEML trainsets to reach the Surat rail depot in the first quarter of 2027.

"We are no longer talking about whether India can build high-speed rail. We are talking about when the first commuter boards it," said a senior official at Nhsrcl who didn't want to be identified. "The civil engineering is largely de-risked now. What remains is precision -- track-laying tolerances measured in millimetres, not centimetres."

The decision to start high-speed rail travel in India with indigenous technology marks an important change in the philosophy of the project.

"It is an ambitious project and answers the question, 'Why don't we have high speed rail?'," said Shubhranshu, a former railway executive and sector expert.

He believes developing an Indian train is more important than merely reproducing a foreign system. Using foreign technology without developing ownership of it, he said, would have been akin to "buying an iPhone and feeling patriotic about it".

The project, therefore, is increasingly being judged not only by when the first passenger train runs but by what India is able to retain after the first train has run.

Former Railway Board member Subodh K. Jain argues that the first project should be viewed through the prism of technology absorption, indigenisation and operations and maintenance rather than simply its initial capital cost.

The train itself will be compatible with stations designed initially for eight-car formations but capable of being expanded to accommodate 16-car trains. An eight-car train will be roughly 290 metres long, while stations are being built with platforms of around 425-450 metres.

The fast track

The track being laid is as significant as the train running on it.

The corridor uses the J-slab ballastless track system derived from Japan's Shinkansen network -- the first time such a system is being deployed in India. Designed to replace traditional loose stone ballast and wooden or concrete sleepers with a permanent foundation, the system consists of a reinforced concrete track bed, cement-asphalt mortar, precast track slabs and rails with fasteners.

Two dedicated track-slab manufacturing facilities have been established in Gujarat, at Kim near Surat and Anand. Ten track construction bases support the installation programme, with four between Surat-Bilimora-Vapi and six between Vadodara-Anand-Ahmedabad.

The corridor is also introducing high-speed turnouts with movable crossings. These allow trains to change tracks while maintaining the safety requirements associated with high-speed operation.

An Nhsrcl track project manager involved in the works describes precision as the defining difference from conventional railway construction: at very high speeds, even small deviations in alignment, level or geometry have to be detected and corrected through repeated surveying and verification.

The signalling mix

Signalling has been one of the more complicated technology questions.

The Shinkansen system is associated with Japan's proprietary high-speed railway technology, while India is deploying an European-standard signalling technology. Shubhranshu has argued that conventional Shinkansen trainsets cannot simply be put on an ETCS (European train control system) Level 2 system without technological modification.

Jain, however, says the issue has already been addressed through the planned deployment of dual signalling, with the Japanese and European systems working in parallel.

V. Shanker, former executive director-planning, Indian Railways, has a similar view, pointing to Taiwan as an example of Japanese-origin rolling stock operating with ETCS Level 2 through electronic integration.

Minister Vaishnaw told Mint on the sidelines of a cabinet briefing earlier this month that the apparent divide between Japanese and European technologies should not be viewed as a barrier. "Ultimately, all the technologies -- European and Japanese -- will come into the system and they will work seamlessly," he said.

Vaishnaw's view essentially points to the larger objective: the corridor is not being built as a closed Japanese railway inside India, but as an Indian high-speed railway that absorbs technologies from multiple systems. That distinction could become important when the next generation of Indian high-speed corridors is planned.

The minister has said that future bullet train corridors may be developed completely on indigenous know-how.

"The Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train is a symbol of India building an entire world class high-speed rail ecosystem from scratch -- new construction standards, signalling integration, and now, with BEML's indigenous trainset prototype, a genuine domestic manufacturing base for 250-280 km/h rolling stock,"said Anurag Gupta, partner at Deloitte India, a consulting firm. "That capability didn't exist a decade ago and will seed every future corridor," he added.

Electricity at scale

The electrical division at Nhsrcl describes the traction system as another major departure from conventional Indian railways.

The corridor uses a 2x25 kV overhead traction system with a network of traction substations, switching posts and distribution substations. Nearly 22,000 steel masts and more than 25,700 cantilever assemblies will support the overhead electrical system across about 1,125 track kilometres.

The height of the overhead equipment masts differs significantly from India's conventional railway network due to track elevation and traction power requirements. They stand between 10.5 metres and 14.5 metres high -- roughly the height of a three to four-storey building. The height of masts in conventional electric trains, in contrast, is typically between 9.5 metres and 9.8 metres.

The electrical system is designed so that the train can move from one power-supply section to another without passengers experiencing a break in traction.

Destination stations

The stations, meanwhile, are being conceived differently as well.

At Surat, the building's façade and interiors draw on the city's diamond industry. At Bilimora, the design draws from the city's mango orchards. Vadodara's station is inspired by the banyan tree, while other stations use local cultural and industrial motifs.

But the design goes beyond aesthetics.

Surat's station has natural lighting through skylights, waiting lounges, retail areas, lifts, escalators and passenger information systems. Bilimora will have lounges, restrooms, nursery facilities, retail outlets, parking and dedicated pick-up and drop-off areas. The stations also incorporate features such as natural ventilation, rainwater harvesting and energy-efficient building systems.

The idea is to make the station a multimodal passenger facility rather than simply a place where people board trains.

At Vadodara, the bullet train station is being integrated with the existing railway station, while Ahmedabad will connect the high-speed rail station with the existing railway and metro network.

Sabarmati is being developed as a larger multimodal hub linking high-speed rail with the railway, metro and bus systems.

The BKC station in Mumbai takes the concept further -- underground. It is the only underground station on the corridor, with passenger facilities spread across platform, concourse and service levels. The station is being excavated deep below one of Mumbai's most congested business districts, with dedicated provisions for natural lighting and connections to road and metro networks.

Under the creek

Perhaps the most dramatic engineering first is beneath Thane Creek.

Of the 21-km underground section between BKC and Shilphata, 16 km is being excavated using tunnel-boring machines. About 7 km of the route will pass under Thane Creek, making it India's first undersea railway tunnel.

For Nhsrcl's project managers, the Mumbai underground section is fundamentally different from the Gujarat viaduct work: the challenge is not simply building a railway but doing so beneath an existing city without disrupting its surface infrastructure.

₹7,000 per minute

The engineering ambition has come with a sharply higher price tag. The Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail project was estimated at ₹1.08 trillion in 2017. The latest revised estimate is around ₹1.98 trillion, meaning the cost has effectively doubled in less than a decade. Some people connected with project put the revised cost at over ₹2 trillion even if inflation figures from the last decade is not taken into account.

The railway ministry has attributed the increase to several factors, including taxes and cess, the addition of rolling stock and signalling systems, inflation and higher costs related to land acquisition and rehabilitation and resettlement.

The cost escalation makes the economics of the eventual operation more important. The railway will have to compete with airlines, cars and conventional trains while recovering the cost of operating a technologically complex railway.

The final passenger fare has not yet been announced. Estimates of ₹6,000-7,000 for a Mumbai-Ahmedabad journey have circulated, but these should not be treated as an official tariff, experts say. Nhsrcl officials said that though fares were expected to be finalised closer to launch dates, they should be closer or slightly higher than comparable fares applicable for travel in second AC sleeper class. Fares between Ahmedabad and Mumbai in this class ranges from ₹ 1,200 to over ₹2,000 depending on the train and dynamic/peak pricing structures.

The project is therefore becoming two experiments at once: one in whether India can build and operate high-speed rail, and another in whether the technology, construction capabilities and domestic manufacturing ecosystem created for the first corridor can eventually make subsequent corridors faster and cheaper to build.

The estimated energy cost of running the train for about two hours between Ahmedabad and Mumbai is around ₹7,000 a minute. That would put the running cost of a two-hour journey at roughly ₹8.4 lakh, before accounting for capital costs and other overheads.

Critics of the project -- economists and opposition politicians among them -- have long argued that the capital outlay could instead have expanded conventional rail capacity, which serves a vastly larger passenger base at a fraction of the per-km cost. Officials associated with the project have generally responded that high-speed rail and conventional rail serve different purposes and passenger segments, and that the technology transfer, manufacturing localisation and skilling that come with the project carry value beyond the corridor itself.

The next track

The government's longer-term ambition, officials say, extends well past this single corridor. The National Rail Plan has identified several additional high-speed corridors for future development. Among them are Delhi-Varanasi, Delhi-Amritsar, Mumbai-Nagpur, Mumbai-Hyderabad, Chennai-Mysuru and Delhi-Ahmedabad. They are in varying stages of feasibility study and pre-construction planning.

Officials caution that each future corridor will have its own geological and land-acquisition characteristics. Lessons from Maharashtra's contested land parcels are already shaping how future alignments are planned -- with greater emphasis on elevated corridors along existing transport rights-of-way to minimise fresh land acquisition.

Meanwhile, for a project that has become shorthand -- for supporters and critics alike -- for India's infrastructure ambitions, officials involved describe a certain weariness with the binary framing of bullet trains as either a triumph or a boondoggle.

"It is neither a miracle nor a mistake," a policy wing official who didn't want to be identified said. "It is a very large, very difficult engineering project being executed in one of the most complex human and physical geographies in the world. Some parts have gone faster than expected. Some parts have gone much slower. That is what building anything at this scale actually looks like."

As the piers continue to rise across the Gujarat plains and the tunnel-boring machines grind slowly beneath the Thane creek, the promise on offer is a simple one, repeated by nearly every official associated with the project: a three-hour journey between India's financial capital and one of its fastest-growing industrial hubs, running on time, at a speed India has never before offered its own citizens.

Whether that promise arrives on the timeline officials now describe -- or whether, like much of the project's history so far, it slips further -- will be the real measure of whether India's bullet train ambitions were built on solid ground, or merely poured over it.

Key Takeaways

* ₹1.98 tn | The latest revised cost estimate for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail project, up from ₹1.08 trillion in 2017.

* 508 km | The length of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail corridor, designed for speeds of up to 320 kmph.