RBI's 25 bps Repo Rate Hike: Experts see more! Right time to sell stocks and buy government-backed bonds?

RBI 25 bps Repo Rate hike: After the 25 bps Repo Rate hike at the RBI MPC on Wednesday, the market is expecting further monetary tightening in the near term. The global investment bank has raised its monetary tightening target in India from 50 bps to 75-100 bps. Indian experts also expect at least two more rate hikes in FY27. As monetary tightening is expected to put equities under pressure and raise government-backed bond yields, a smart investor is expected to rejig their portfolio and increase exposure to assets that are expected to generate more wealth for them.

According to market experts, the Indian stock market is about to hit bottom. However, they also predicted that the bottom won't be made unless the Nifty 50 index dips below 22,000. They advised investors to start adding long-term government bonds from now until November 2026, and then review whether to continue the strategy or make a change. They said that one should exit precious metals for the October to December 2026 quarter and focus on the equity and government bonds. However, they advised equity investors to look at the ETF rather than direct stocks, predicting returns of 15% to 18% over the next five to six months. They also predicted a 15% CAGR for Government-backed bonds over the next two years.

Is more monetary tightening ahead?

Expecting more monetary tightening, Prakhar Sharma, Bank Analyst at Jefferies, said, “RBI's 25 bps rate hike to 5.5% was in line with expectations, but the stance change to calibrated tightening lifts consensus rate hike expectations to 75-100 bps (from 50 bps).”

Predicting at least two more rate hikes in the current financial year, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market analyst, said, “We are expecting up to two more rate hikes in the current financial year, lifting the Repo Rate up to around 6%.”

The SEBI-registered expert advised investors to consider government-backed long-term bonds, as they would offer higher yields due to the interest rate hike.

Time to sell stocks, buy government bonds?

Whether one should exit stocks and buy bonds amid monetary tightening, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, said, “One can exit stocks, but not the equities. I would suggest a 75-25 exposure to equities and bonds, but by equities, I mean ETFs. The market is about to make its bottom, but not before breaking below 22,000. However, after the bottom, we are expecting a sharp rebound. So, large-caps should be preferred, and I advise investors to invest in the Nifty 50 ETF and the Nifty 100 ETF. In the next five to six months, they can expect around 15% and 18% return by putting money in these two ETFs.”

The PACE 360 expert also mentioned that 25% of the portfolio should be allocated to long-term Government Bonds.

Government Bonds | Wealth creation strategy

Unveiling the strategy for Government Bond investors, Amit Goel said, "One should start buying government-backed long-term bonds from now onwards to November end. Then they should review whether there is a need to change the investment plan. After buying government-backed long-term bonds, one should hold them for two years. I believe they will get 15% CAGR on their money after two years.

Should you sell stocks, buy bonds | Conclusion

So, in short, it's better to invest in Nifty 50 and Nifty 100 ETFs instead of direct stocks, even if it is a large-cap stock. The Nifty 50 ETF is expected to yield 15% in the next five to six months, whereas the Nifty 100 ETF may yield 18% in this time. At the same time, a smart investor is advised to allocate 25% to government-backed long-term bonds and hold the position for 2 years, expecting a 15% CAGR.