Anand Rathi said the power sector is shifting from volume to value as renewable energy grows. In a 6 October report, the firm noted solar and wind capacity will rise significantly by FY36E. They believe ACME and Clean Max are strong platforms, as "the opportunity is increasingly about scaling profitably."
The power sector is witnessing a new growth cycle, with demand from diversified pools, shifting from volume to value, according to brokerage firm Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers.
In a latest report released on 6 October, Anand Rathi underscored that power capacity could grow at 7.7% CAGR through FY36E, largely led by solar at 13% and wind at 10.7%.
The brokerage firm expects renewable energy to contribute a larger share of power generation, noting that its share of installed capacity may rise from 53% in FY26 to 70% by FY36e, while thermal capacity may fall from 47% to 30%.
"The faster growth in renewable generation should continue to gradually reshape the generation mix as generation is expected to grow at 6.9% CAGR through FY36E," Anand Rathi said.
"Thermal capacity grows at just 3% CAGR through FY36E, while thermal generation grows at 3.7% CAGR. Its share of generation is estimated to fall from 71% in FY26 to 52% in FY36E, though it remains the largest source of power generation," said the brokerage firm.
Anand Rathi believes India's renewable market is entering a scale-up phase, with ACME, Clean Max and Juniper emerging as the strongest growth and profitability platforms.
"The three are targeting nearly 10-11GW by FY30e, implying nearly 40-60% capacity CAGRs, while Adani Green and NTPC Green retain a clear scale and balance-sheet advantage. The key differentiator is therefore not capacity growth alone, but the quality and efficiency of that growth," said the brokerage firm.
As the sector scales, contracted demand, higher-value renewable solutions and operating leverage are expected to support sustainable margins.
"ACME offers the strongest growth trajectory, Clean Max a more balanced growth-margin profile, while NTPC Green and Adani Green provide greater scale and balance-sheet strength. The opportunity is increasingly about scaling profitably with execution visibility, rather than simply adding GW," said Anand Rathi.
According to the brokerage firm, Clean Max is positioned to benefit from the structural shift in corporate power procurement and the rapid build-out of data centres.
"It's an established customer franchise, repeat wins and group-captive model provide a differentiated platform to scale capacity, while CTU connectivity and VPPA/EAPA structures expand its addressable market," said Anand Rathi.
The brokerage firm expects Clean Max's operating capacity to increase from nearly 4.2GW in FY26 to nearly 9.2GW by FY29E, driving 45.9%, 52.7%, and 75.1%revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGR, respectively.
For ACME Solar Holdings, Anand Rathi has a "hold" call, with a target price of ₹449. At this target price, the current valuation already captures a substantial part of the visible growth, limiting near-term upside, said the brokerage firm.
The brokerage firm underscored that ACME is transitioning from a plain-solar IPP into a higher-value dispatchable renewable platform, with 8.4GW of capacity by FY29E increasingly weighted towards FDRE, hybrid and BESS.
The brokerage firm forecasts strong 64.5%, 63.2%, and 55.8% revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGR, respectively, over FY26-29e, supported by higher tariffs, a secured project pipeline and merchant BESS arbitrage.
"Excluding merchant BESS, revenue and EBITDA CAGR stand at 52.8% and 51.5%, respectively. However, with nearly ₹43,300 crore of largely debt-funded capex and net debt-to-equity reaching nearly 3.9 times, execution remains critical," said Anand Rathi.