NSE vs BSE shares: NSE falls 1.4% in a week but BSE gains 2%; what lies ahead? Support, target price, rationale

Since its IPO, NSE shares have declined below their listing price, contrasting with BSE's gains. Analysts expect NSE to recover due to its market dominance, although concerns over trading volumes impact BSE's outlook.

Shares of India's two leading stock exchanges have taken different paths in the first week following the National Stock Exchange of India's (NSE) much-awaited public listing. While NSE shares have slipped below their IPO price, BSE shares have gained during the same period, highlighting the contrasting investor response to the two exchange stocks.

The NSE held its mega public offering in September 2026. Since an exchange cannot list on itself, NSE shares are listed exclusively on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). NSE shares made their debut on BSE on September 24, 2026, at ₹1,800 per share, a premium of ₹25, or 0.8%, over the IPO issue price of ₹1,785.

However, the stock has subsequently moved below both levels. NSE shares rose 2% today, October 6, to ₹1,760 but remained 1.4% below the IPO price. The stock has lost around 1.4% over the past one week and is down 2.2% from its listing price.

BSE, meanwhile, has delivered a stronger performance over the same period. The stock has gained almost 2% in the last one week and rose 3.5% on Tuesday to ₹3,292.30.

Looking at the historical trend, BSE shares have fallen more than 4% in one month and over 14% in three months. However, the stock has gained more than 9% in six months and 47% over the past year. Although BSE shares fell during the initial days following NSE's listing, they are up just 0.6% since NSE's listing date.

PL initiated coverage on NSE with an 'Accumulate' rating and a target price of ₹1,950, based on 35 times FY29E price-to-earnings. The brokerage highlighted NSE's dominant position, with around 93% share in the cash market and nearly 100% in stock and index futures for YTDFY27.

However, NSE's market share in index options has declined to around 65% in YTDFY27 amid regulatory hurdles. The introduction of CAS and proprietary trading rules has also affected volumes.

While NSE's revenue grew at a 25% CAGR between FY21 and FY26, PL expects growth to moderate to an 11% CAGR over FY26-29E because of the shrinking share in index options. It expects EBITDA margins to recover to 76% by FY29E from 71% in FY26, in line with an expected 11% CAGR in PAT.

"We value NSE at 35x FY29E P/E to arrive at TP of INR1,950. We expect valuation to sustain at these levels, supported by structural factors such as near-dominance in key segments with high entry barriers, healthy profit growth and optionality," it said

Meanwhile, Macquarie has also initiated coverage on NSE with an 'Outperform' rating and a target price of ₹1,965. It described NSE as "The Dominator", citing its market share, broad service offering, technology infrastructure and liquidity. According to the brokerage, entrenched network effects, strong profitability and cash support the exchange's long-term outlook.

On the technical front, experts have recommended holding NSE shares, with immediate targets of ₹1,800 and ₹1,950, while keeping a stop-loss at ₹1,680. Technically, ₹1,700 is seen as immediate support, whereas the stock faces resistance in the ₹1,795- ₹1,800 zone.

The brokerage said BSE's increasing focus on index options has helped it emerge as a credible competitor to NSE. It expects the platform's expansion and market-share gains to provide scope for further revenue and margin growth, while improving earnings could support cash generation.

However, Nuvama Institutional Equities took a more cautious view, downgrading BSE to 'Hold' from 'Buy' and cutting its target price by 21% to ₹3,240. It also reduced its EPS estimates by 6.3% for FY27 and 15% for FY28.

Nuvama said BSE's average daily premium traded volume had fallen to ₹18,100 crore, the lowest level since January 2025. It cited lower trading velocity and declining participation as key concerns. Tighter bank guarantee norms from the RBI could also increase capital intensity for intermediaries and reduce turnover efficiency in high-frequency strategies.

On the technical front, Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, said BSE's recent move indicated improving short-term momentum but cautioned that the stock remained below its 200-DEMA.

"BSE has witnessed a bullish move over the last two sessions, indicating some improvement in short-term momentum. However, the stock is still trading below the crucial 200-DEMA, which continues to act as a major hurdle for the broader trend reversal."

Patel identified ₹3,000 as strong support and ₹3,500 as key resistance. He said a decisive breakout and sustained close above ₹3,500 would be required to confirm further upside, while investors should wait and watch rather than initiate fresh positions at current levels.

For NSE, the brokerage outlook remains supported by its dominant market position and profitability, although regulatory changes and declining index-options share remain key risks. For BSE, improving market share and its index-options strategy provide growth potential, but falling trading volumes, tighter regulations and the stock's technical resistance remain important factors to watch.