Nifty Plunges Into Negative Territory For FY27, Down 15% Year-To-Date

The benchmark Nifty 50 plunged deeper into negative territory for fiscal 2027 on Thursday, with the index falling below the 22,300 mark as sustained selling pressure continued to weigh on Dalal Street. The Nifty opened fiscal 2027 at 22,899 on April 1 and has since declined to 22,217.3, translating into a fall of 14.33% year-to-date. The index is down 2.87% over the past week, 6.88% in the last month and 9.81% over the past year.

The Nifty was down more than 300 points during Thursday's session, while the Sensex fell over 900 points to around 72,300.

The ongoing selloff has also put the Nifty on track for its eighth consecutive weekly decline, a rare streak that has occurred only a handful of times in the benchmark's history.

According to Sudeep Shah, Vice President – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, an eight-week losing streak for the Nifty is an uncommon occurrence. Since 1992, the index has witnessed such prolonged declines only six times previously. The longest losing streaks were eight weeks in 1993 and nine weeks in 2001.

The Nifty has declined in each of the three trading sessions so far this week and is now attempting to hold above this week's low of 22,569.

Why The Current Backdrop Matters

While the duration of the current losing streak is unusual, previous episodes occurred against very different market and macroeconomic backdrops. The prolonged declines in 1992 and 1993 were associated with the Harshad Mehta scam, while the 2001 selloff coincided with the dot-com bust, the Ketan Parekh scam and the aftermath of the September 11 attacks.

In 2020, the Covid-19 shock triggered a sharp, liquidity-driven market selloff, which was subsequently followed by aggressive monetary and fiscal support.

The 2008 episode provides another important historical reference. Crude oil prices were close to $145 a barrel, inflation was elevated and the global financial crisis was unfolding. Following the end of that losing streak, the Nifty rebounded 9.5% in the first month, but subsequently declined 10% over three months and 22% over six months.

The current correction has been less abrupt compared with some of these earlier episodes. The Nifty has declined more than 9% over the past eight weeks, compared with falls of around 22% during the 2008 episode and 33% in 2020.

This indicates that the current decline has been more gradual rather than a capitulation-style selloff.

Nifty Slips Below 200-Week Moving Average

From a technical perspective, the Nifty's move around its long-term support levels is also being closely watched. The index retested its 200-week moving average, or 200-WMA, at 22,606 on September 29 and is currently trading below that level. The index had last tested this zone in June 2020.

The break below the 200-WMA adds another layer of concern for the benchmark as the market enters the final sessions of the week. Sustaining below this long-term technical level could keep the broader trend under pressure, while any recovery would bring the moving average back into focus as an important level to watch.

With the Nifty already down sharply from its recent highs, investors are now watching whether the index can stabilise around the 22,200–22,300 zone or whether continued selling pushes the benchmark further lower.