Low coal stocks, weak hydro: Wind emerges as India’s scalable power bet

“India added a record 6+ GW of wind capacity last year and is working towards the ambitious target of 100 GW by 2030,” said Union Minister Pralhad Joshi on Friday.

He added that the sector was entering “a new phase of growth” — driven by rising power demand, technological advancements, stronger domestic manufacturing, and the integration of wind, solar, and storage solutions.

Phase of accelerated growth ahead?

According to an announcement made at Windergy India 2026, the sector is likely to see annual installations reach 8 GW in FY27. The figure will scale progressively to 13.2 GW by FY30-31 — on trajectory to take cumulative installed capacity to approximately 107 GW.

Data provided by the Press Information Bureau indicates that India had 59.20 GW of installed capacity by September 30 this year. As per the GWEC report 2026, India had ranked fourth globally in wind energy installation till the end of December 2025. The country achieved its highest-ever annual wind capacity addition of 6.05 GW during FY26 — crossing the landmark of 5.5 GW capacity addition recorded in FY17. The figure also marked an increase of nearly 46% over the capacity recorded in FY25.

Progress has continued at a steady pace with an official released noting in mid-August that there was around 28 GW of additional wind capacity under implementation. Wind turbine manufacturing capacity reached about 24 GW by March 2026, up from 10 GW in 2014. The sector has also achieved up to 80% indigenisation across key components.

A state-wise breakdown of installed capacity published by PIB at the end of June indicates Gujarat leads the list when it comes to wind energy projects. Tamil Nadu is a close second, followed by Karnataka, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. The cabinet had also approved a Rs 7,453 crore VGF scheme in June 2024 for 1 GW of offshore wind projects.

‘100 GW target by 2030’

Joshi inaugurated the eighth edition of Windergy India 2026 on Thursday — noting that policy support and pipeline volume remain key drivers for the sector.

“India’s wind energy sector has demonstrated strong momentum, with the highest-ever annual installation of 6.05 GW achieved in FY2026. We are confident that annual wind energy installations will surpass this record in FY2027, marking another important milestone in India’s wind energy journey. This continued growth will strengthen the foundation for achieving our national ambition of 100 GW of installed wind energy capacity by 2030…” he said.

The official roadmap shows installations climbing incrementally, with the country expected to add 9 GW in FY27-28 and another 10 GW in FY28-29. India is projected to add 12 GW the next year and another 13.2 GW by FY30-31. This will bring the cumulative capacity to 107 GW over the corresponding period.

Official estimates suggest 43 GW is presently under construction — providing clear project visibility across 102.2 GW of capacity. Grid expansion under the Rs 1.86 lakh crore Green Energy Corridor Phase-III underpins this pipeline. GEC-III is intended to strengthen the renewable power grid by expanding intra-state transmission infrastructure and adding large-scale battery storage capacity.

Solar, hydroelectric power falter

Renewable energy sources in India remain somewhat hindered by storage concerns despite a rapid expansion in capacity. The country is presently facing acute night-time power shortages because insufficient battery storage prevents the grid from shifting surplus daytime solar energy into the evening and night hours.

Meanwhile hydroelectricity — historically considered a prime source of flexible electricity for peak hours — has been restricted by severe weather dependencies. Hydropower generation had declined 10.75% year-on-year during the first quarter of FY27 as reservoirs hit their lowest levels since 2023. Government data accessed by Reuters indicated that the situation had worsened, with generation falling 20% from a year ago.

“The impact of El Niño on Hydro reservoir levels is expected to reasonably reduce hydropower generation in India as compared to the previous year. Between April 1 and July 30, hydropower generation has been 10.75% less than that for the corresponding period in 2025,” Union Minister Shripad Naik told the Lok Sabha in August.

He added in a written reply to the Parliament that flash floods in the Teesta river basin had also created a “major operational disruption” since October 2023. The situation has worsened steadily as the rainfall deficit lingered throughout August and September — compounded by heatwaves and drought warnings in various parts of the country. Coal has picked up much of the hydropower slack during this time, with plants increasing output to meet the strong demand.

India turns to coal

Coal-fired plants have increased output to meet strong demand in recent months — with plans for flexibilisation reportedly pushed back by a year. According to a Reuters report, the government has access to around 15 GW of electricity from coal and hydropower plants that can be allocated during a shortfall. But weaker generation of hydroelectricity has significantly tightened the supplies for redistribution.

Data shared by Grid India reveals coal-fired generation rose 13.3% in September from a year earlier, with the share in overall generation increasing from 64.6% in August to 66.03% in September. According to reports, the power deficit rose to more than a three-year high in September as the country relied on thermal power to meet rising demand. News agency Reuters reported on Tuesday that power producers are now planning to buy more coal from private mining companies to overcome fuel shortages and meet rising electricity demand.

The power ministry recently asked more than 100 captive coal-fired power plants to operate at maximum capacity from October 1 through year-end to handle the surge. Reuters reported last month that India is also considering mandatory imported coal blending at power plants.

An additional complication has arisen due to several coal power plants undergoing maintenance amid the surge in demand. According to data published by Grid India, nearly 41 GW of power plants are offline and about 47% of the coal plants have reached critical fuel levels. Put more simply this means that they are now running with less than a quarter of mandated coal supplies and are able to generate power for less than 3 days. The latest figures published by the Central Electricity Authority suggest 84 plants have now slipped below the 25% normative requirement benchmark. Analysts believe that the decline in power plant stock is a temporary logistical issue — but it comes at a critical time for energy supplies.

Is wind energy the answer?

Government data indicates wind energy can provide a reliable structural balance to the ongoing grid constraints — especially as hydroelectric power generation continues to drop and solar generation remains hampered by pending battery storage. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy told Lok Sabha in late July that wind generation had delivered 106 billion units of electricity during FY26.

According to announcements made during the Windergy India event, annual installations are expected to reach 8 GW in FY27 and scale progressively to 13.2 GW by FY31. The sector also has a currently active pipeline of 43 GW under construction and 28 GW under implementation — outlining a base for sustained expansion across 102.2 GW of capacity.

The recent implementation of GEC-III will also provide a major boost to the sector. The project has a total outlay of Rs 1,86,405 crore and aims to construct intra-state transmission systems capable of evacuating up to 135 GW of renewable energy. The scheme also earmarks Rs 50,000 crore to deploy 50 GWh of Battery Energy Storage Systems — allowing excess wind power generated during off-peak hours to be stored and dispatched during high-demand peak hours.