തിങ്കളാഴ്ചത്തെ ഓഹരി വിപണി: സെൻസെക്സ്, നിഫ്റ്റി എന്നിവയിൽ എന്ത് സംഭവിക്കും? നിർണ്ണായകമായ മൂന്ന് കാരണങ്ങൾ

Sensex, Nifty, Bank Nifty prediction: The Nifty 50 finished lower for the eight straight week on Thursday

Sensex, Nifty, Bank Nifty prediction: Amid continuous selling by the FIIs and weak micro and macro indicators, the key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market are trading lower for the last eight straight sessions. If the Nifty 50 index remains under the bears' grip next week as well, it would end lower for the ninth successive week, after a gap of 25 years. So, all eyes are focused on the Opening Bell when trading resumes on Monday.

According to stock market experts, the Indian stock market is expected to see strong buying in IT stocks following Accenture's better-than-expected results. The market also estimates strong buying in HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank shares after the appointment of new MD and CEO at these two private lenders. However, the question that remains unanswered is whether it will be enough to enable the Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty to open higher on Monday?

Stock market prediction | Top 3 factors

Pointing towards the three factors (provided there is status quo in the Middle East) that may dictate the Opening Bell on Monday in the Indian stock market, Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital, said, "The Opening Bell of the Indian stock market will be dominated by these three key factors that has happened over the weekends: Accenture's results, appointment of new CEO and MD at HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, and hike in the petrol and diesel prices."

Sandeep Pandey said that the new CEO and MD appointments at HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank will provide some boost to the Bank Nifty index, whereas the Sensex and Nifty 50 would be impacted by all three factors mentioned above.

Petrol, diesel price hike

On how the petrol and diesel price hike would impact the Indian stock market, Avinash Gorakshkar, Founder of Avinash Mentor Research, said, "Amid soaring crude oil prices, the petrol and diesel price hike would be a relief for the OMCs on the under-recovery front is a good sign for the OMC stocks, including Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) shares, which owns around one sixths strength in the Sensex and nearly 8.50% in the Nifty 50 index. Adding the OMC stocks' weightage in it, the strength would come around 10% in the Nifty 50 index and around 20% in Sensex."

New CEO-MD at HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank

Speaking on the impact of new CEO and MD appointment at the HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank on the key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market, Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, said, "HDFC Bank shares command an outsized influence, accounting for roughly 11% to 13% of the Nifty 50 and between 26% and 29% of the Bank Nifty. Similarly, it commands around 13% weightage in the BSE Sensex."

Seema Srivastava of SMC Global Securities said that Kotak Mahindra Bank commands around 3% weight in Sensex, 2% in the Nifty 50 index and around 8.50% in the Bank Nifty index.

So, these stocks command around 15% weightage in the Nifty 50 index, 15% weightage in the BSE Sensex, and around 35% weightage in the Bank Nifty index.

Accenture results

Expecting an upside opening in the Indian IT stocks on Monday after the announcement of better-than-expected Accenture results, Avinash Gorakshkar said, "After the strong Accenture results, Indian IT stocks witnessed strong buying in the US stock market. Shares of Infosys and Wipro skyrocketed on the NYSE following Accenture's results. This is expected to fuel positive sentiment toward Indian IT stocks among Dalal Street bulls, when trading resumes on Monday."

On why Accenture results hold the key for the Indian IT companies, Mahesh M Ojha, VP -- Research & Business Development at KC Securities, said, "Indian IT companies draw more than 50% of their business from the US. Accenture plays a big role in it. Some Indian IT companies draw more than 50% of their business from the US. So, we are bullish on IT stocks when trade resumes on Monday."

Gorakshkar said that IT stocks have around 10% weightage in the Nifty 50 index and around 12% in the BSE Sensex, which may also fuel these key benchmark indices when trading resumes on Monday.

So, combining the positive impact of these three factors, around 47% weightage at the BSE Sensex (20% + 15% + 12%), around 35% (10% + 15% + 10%) weightage at the Nifty 50 index and 35% weightage at the Bank Nifty index is tilted towards a big upside opening.

Can we expect an upside opening on Monday?

Expecting a relief rally after the successive sell-off in the Indian stock market, Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said, "The market consistently faced selling pressure at higher levels during the week. On the weekly charts, it formed a long bearish candle. On the intraday charts, it continued to make lower highs and lower lows, indicating a largely negative trend. We believe the market's short-term texture is weak but oversold. Therefore, the possibility of a pullback rally from current levels cannot be ruled out."

The Koak Securities expert said the relief rally may push the Nifty 50 index up to 22,500 levels.