ഇന്ത്യൻ ഓഹരി വിപണി കഴിഞ്ഞ എട്ടു ആഴ്ചകളായി തുടർച്ചയായി നഷ്ടത്തിലാണ്. 25 വർഷത്തിനിടയിലെ ഏറ്റവും വലിയ തകർച്ചയാണിത്. ക്രൂഡ് ഓയിൽ വിലയിലെ വർദ്ധനവ്, യുഎസ് ബോണ്ട് യീൽഡിലെ കുതിപ്പ്, പണപ്പെരുപ്പം തുടങ്ങിയ ഘടകങ്ങൾ വിപണിയെ ആശങ്കയിലാക്കുന്നു. ടിസിഎസ് രണ്ടാം പാദഫലങ്ങളും ആഗോള സാഹചര്യങ്ങളും വരും ദിവസങ്ങളിൽ വിപണിയുടെ ഗതി നിർണ്ണയിക്കുന്നതിൽ പ്രധാന പങ്കുവഹിക്കും.
The Indian stock market has just set a record, but not one investors hoped for. Dalal Street has logged losses for eight consecutive weeks for the first time in 25 years, surpassing the streaks seen during the 2020 Covid-19 crash and the 2008 global financial crisis.
A confluence of rising oil prices, soaring bond yields, and inflation worries has dented sentiment on the bourses, triggering a major selloff in Indian equities.
Here are 5 factors that could affect D-Street move in the coming week.
Oil prices
For the week, oil prices were subdued after European leaders agreed to US President Donald Trump’s request to release diesel reserves in an effort to bring down fuel prices and reduce imports of the fuel from the United States.
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But analysts remain on edge. "We simply don't know how to model the endgame," JPMorgan analysts said, highlighting the uncertainty over how the conflict could develop. When the conflict began, the bank had assumed there were economic thresholds the US administration would not cross. Six months into the war, JPMorgan said many of those thresholds had been crossed, while there was still no clear exit strategy.
The risk of further supply disruptions has also increased the possibility of higher oil prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had shown that disruptions to shipping could spread and become more severe. Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could rise as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify. If exports return to normal, the bank expects oil prices to move back towards $80 a barrel.
Bond yields
The 10-year US Treasury yield, a yardstick for borrowing costs and asset prices globally, rose to 5.34%, its highest since 2002. A sharp rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield can pressure Indian stocks because it makes US government bonds more attractive relative to riskier emerging-market assets. Higher US yields can encourage global investors to move money out of markets such as India, putting pressure on the rupee and equities.
A weaker rupee can further raise imported costs, particularly for companies dependent on crude oil and other overseas inputs.
FII selloff worsens
FIIs have offloaded Rs 43,687 crore in just six trading sessions, with outflows accelerating over the past three sessions. Their index futures long-short ratio has declined to 8.01%, near the lower end of its historical range.
Foreign selling was understandable in the current global rate environment. In the context of the 10-year US bond yields hovering around 5.2%, this FII selling is a rational act, experts say.
Foreign investors are unlikely to return to Indian equities in large numbers even after the artificial intelligence trade peaks. A sustained revival in foreign inflows depends on India's ability to build globally competitive industries in areas such as semiconductors, batteries and energy storage, Bernstein said in a report.
Q2 earnings
TCS, DMart are among 21 companies which will declare its Q2 earnings to officially kickstart the earnings session. could provide important cues for market sentiment, particularly as investors look for signs of resilience in corporate earnings amid a volatile global backdrop. TCS results will be watched for revenue growth, deal wins, margins and management commentary on IT spending, while DMart's numbers will offer a read on consumer demand, sales growth and operating margins.
Any significant deviation from expectations in either set of results could influence sentiment not only towards the respective stocks but also across the broader IT and consumption segments.
Rupee plunge
The Indian rupee fell to a two-month low as a sharp rise in global bond yields to decade highs and higher oil prices added to pressure on the currency, which was already facing headwinds from foreign portfolio outflows.
Persistent pressure on the rupee has also kept exporters cautious about hedging their receivables, even as importer hedging remains strong. This has further widened the demand-supply mismatch in the foreign exchange market.
FX advisory firm IFA Global recommends that exporters hedge cautiously and only against in-hand orders, while importers should use dips in the dollar-rupee pair to hedge their exposure, Reuters reported.
Technical outlook
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the Nifty 50 extended its broader corrective phase, marking its eighth consecutive weekly decline. The index remains below key moving averages and continues to form lower highs and lower lows, keeping the broader technical structure weak. A sharp decline during the week dragged the index to an intraday low of around 22,217 before a modest recovery from the lows.
On the upside, 22,500-22,600 is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone, followed by 22,800-23,000, Ponmudi said. A sustained move above 22,600 could provide near-term stability and support a recovery towards 22,800-23,000. However, the index would need to reclaim the 23,000 level for a meaningful improvement in its broader short-term structure, he added.
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(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .)
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