Geopolitical tensions, erratic weather cloud Keralam’s foreign tourism outlook

Keralam is bracing for another foreign tourist season against the backdrop of mounting geopolitical tensions and increasingly erratic weather patterns linked to El Niño. Yet, the State’s tourism industry is looking ahead with cautious optimism, hoping for a strong and steady season after lacklustre seasons in recent years.

The emerging trend of ‘alert travel’ — with tourists displaying heightened awareness of and responsiveness to real-time updates on costs, safety, and climatic conditions — is adding to the challenges for States such as Keralam.

Speaking to The Hindu, Sajeev Kurup, general secretary of the Confederation of Kerala Tourism Industries (CKTI) and chairman of the Ayurveda Task Force of FICCI’s National Tourism Committee, said the prevailing geopolitical situation in West Asia, coupled with evolving climatic conditions driven by El Niño, was not favourable to Keralam. The State is highly vulnerable to climate-induced natural calamities and has limited direct international flight connectivity, largely restricted to Gulf destinations.

Wellness tourism

Around 70% of foreign tourists visiting Keralam are estimated to belong to the wellness and Ayurveda segment, while leisure tourists account for barely 25-30%. Wellness tourists, mainly from the Gulf, post-Soviet states and some European countries, tend to travel directly to Keralam through Gulf transit hubs such as Dubai and Doha.

Leisure tourists, meanwhile, largely arrive in other north Indian cities before travelling to Keralam as part of south India tour packages.

“The uncertainty prevailing in the Gulf region amid the war between the United States and Iran is prompting many foreigners to reconsider their travel plans and opt for relatively safer destinations such as Colombo and other Far East destinations, which compete with Keralam in terms of services and products,” Mr. Kurup said.

Cost and safety

For foreign tourists, the first two considerations are generally cost and safety, followed by climatic conditions, he said. A failure of the northeast monsoon, which normally brings around 500 mm of rain to Keralam between October and December, could result in higher temperatures and associated difficulties, prompting tourists to reconsider or alter their travel plans, Mr. Kurup added.

Even as the State’s tourism sector faces a host of challenges, the newly assumed government has yet to extend significant support to the industry. According to James Kodianthara, former chairperson of the Kerala chapter of the Indian Association of Tour Operators (IATO), the government is yet to play an active role, leaving private players and hospitality-sector stakeholders to individually work to attract their regular annual share of foreign tourists as they struggle to stay afloat.

“The situation is not rosy, and any decline in business during the peak season could trigger layoffs in the sector,” he warned.

‘Govt. must take measures’

E.M. Najeeb, president of CKTI, said the “honeymoon period” of the new government was over and it must now take measures to safeguard the interests of the hospitality sector. Although domestic tourism has returned to normalcy and registered robust growth beyond pre-pandemic levels, foreign tourist arrivals in Keralam are yet to recover to pre-COVID levels. The foreign tourist season in Keralam typically begins by late September or October, gathers momentum during October-November and continues until March.

However, State government officials said the first six months of 2026 showed 8.3% growth in tourist arrivals compared to the same period last year. Although the State will have to wait longer to see major recovery, the sector is expected to post positive growth at the end of the season amid the mounting challenges, they said.