RBI survey: Household inflation expectations hit 10% for next year

Synopsis

Indian households expect inflation to rise to 10 per cent over the coming year, driven by living expenses. The Reserve Bank of India has implemented monetary tightening to control this persistent inflation. A recent survey shows a significant increase in household inflation expectations compared to previous months. Many respondents believe food prices will escalate, contributing to overall inflation concerns.

Indian households project inflation to hit 10 per cent over the next year, rising from 9.4 per cent in July. The shifting outlook underscores intensifying anxieties over escalating living costs, coinciding with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) aggressive monetary tightening measures aimed at reining in persistent inflation.

According to the RBI’s September 2026 Inflation Expectations Survey of Households, the median one-year-ahead inflation expectation surged by 60 basis points to reach 10 per cent. Concurrently, the three-month expectation climbed 70 basis points to 9.9 per cent, up from 9.2 per cent in the previous July round.

Confirming the trend, the RBI stated, "Households’ median inflation expectations for the next three months and one year rose by 70 bps and 60 bps to 9.9 per cent and 10.0 per cent, respectively."

These findings follow the Monetary Policy Committee's decision on October 7 to hike the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent. Rising household inflation expectations serve as a critical gauge for central bank policy, as they reflect public anxiety over future living expenses and can directly shape consumer spending patterns and wage demands.

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The survey also highlighted an upward shift in public perception regarding prevailing price pressure. The current median inflation perception among households rose 60 basis points, climbing to 8.4 per cent in September from 7.8 per cent in July.

Apprehensions over future price trends have grown widespread:

One-Year Horizon: 88.9 per cent of respondents anticipate a rise in general prices over the coming year, with 67.4 per cent expecting prices to climb at a faster rate than at present.

Three-Month Horizon: 81.9 per cent expect prices to increase over the next quarter, up from 80.7 per cent reported in July.

Food Inflation: Food costs remain the primary driver of concern. Over the next three months, 84.9 per cent of respondents expect food prices to escalate, while 61.6 per cent of total respondents anticipate food inflation to accelerate beyond current levels.

The central bank observed that "The proportion of respondents anticipating a rise in general inflation has inched up for both the time horizons."

While the survey points to stubborn inflation concerns despite higher interest rates, the RBI emphasized that the 10 per cent figure reflects the median expectation of surveyed households rather than the central bank's official economic forecast.

The survey was administered between September 10 and September 20 across 19 major cities, sampling 5,987 respondents.

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