India's EV future may not be as electric as you think. TERI study finds a role for CNG till 2050

TERI study finds CNG has the lowest environmental impact across most vehicle segments in India

India's road transport transition is likely to be a mix of EVs, CNG and LNG rather than a shift to a single dominant fuel, a new TERI study said, with the suitability of each technology varying sharply by vehicle segment.

The Energy and Resources Institute assessed petrol, diesel, CNG, electricity and LNG across six vehicle categories, including two-wheelers, three-wheelers, private and commercial four-wheelers, light commercial vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles.

Its central finding was that India should not pursue one fuel as a universal replacement for existing mobility choices.

"The transition, however, is unlikely to be driven by a single fuel or choice of technology," the report said. It said different technologies would have different roles depending on vehicle characteristics, annual utilisation, travel distance, payload requirements, infrastructure availability, ownership costs and environmental performance.

EVs lead in two-wheelers and three-wheelers

Electric vehicles emerged as the strongest long-term pathway for two-wheelers in the TERI assessment.

The study said EVs would strengthen their position as charging infrastructure expands, technology matures and operating economics become more favourable. Petrol would move towards a declining role, while CNG would remain a niche transition fuel.

Three-wheelers followed a similar long-term direction. The segment starts from a CNG-dominant position, but EVs strengthen progressively and become the dominant long-term technology in the study's assessment.

CNG, however, would retain a transition role as charging infrastructure and EV economics improve, the report said.

CNG stays relevant for cars and commercial vehicles

For private cars, the study indicated a more gradual shift towards electric mobility. CNG remained strongly competitive while EVs gained importance over time. For commercial four-wheelers, CNG had strong current economics, while EVs gained ground over the longer term. The report described the resulting pathway as coexistence, with EVs increasingly taking a larger role while CNG remained significant.

Light commercial vehicles also showed a long-term shift towards EVs for urban and regional applications. CNG, however, remained relevant, particularly where charging infrastructure and operating requirements could constrain a complete shift to electric vehicles.

Economic considerations received the highest weight in TERI's assessment at 31.49 per cent, followed by environmental factors at 22.34 per cent and technical factors at 21.25 per cent. Social and geopolitical considerations accounted for 13.87 per cent and 11.05 per cent respectively.

Why LNG could matter for trucks

Heavy-duty vehicles showed the biggest divergence between the different technologies.

TERI said diesel would retain an initial role but decline over time. CNG would remain important for regional freight, while LNG would become increasingly relevant for long-haul applications. Battery electric vehicles would have a more limited role in this segment under the conditions assessed by the study.

The report pointed to payload, range, charging time, battery weight and technology maturity as constraints for electric heavy-duty vehicles.

EVs do not automatically have the lowest life-cycle impact

Under the current Indian electricity mix, TERI said CNG generally showed the lowest overall environmental burden across most vehicle categories assessed. It also said EV performance was sensitive to the electricity generation mix and battery manufacturing.

The report said its life-cycle assessment of several passenger and commercial vehicle segments indicated that CNG-powered vehicles had the lowest overall life-cycle emissions among the fuel options assessed.

This did not mean EVs lacked an environmental advantage. TERI noted that electric vehicles performed favourably on operational air pollutants. But it said their wider environmental performance also depended on how electricity was generated, battery technology and material requirements.

India's energy transition also changes import dependence

The shift towards electric vehicles could reduce India's direct dependence on imported crude oil and LNG. But the report said electrification would create another form of external dependence through battery materials.

Lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite were among the critical minerals identified by the study. Their globally concentrated supply chains create a different set of geopolitical and supply risks, the report said.