എളുപ്പമുള്ള പണത്തിന്റെ കാലം അവസാനിക്കുന്നു: പലിശ നിരക്കുകൾ ഇനിയും ഉയരുമെന്ന് ഫ്രഞ്ച് സാമ്പത്തിക വിദഗ്ധൻ

“We had almost three decades of very low interest rates. Long-term real rates were not a monetary factor, they were a real factor. We are coming now, maybe, to a period where this very favourable situation is coming to an end,” Landau said.

In September, the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), the first hike in three years. The European Central Bank has raised the key rates twice in 2026—in June and September, each time by 25 bps.

Landau flagged three drivers of the latest change. First, global savings will likely decline, especially in emerging economies, including China, where young populations that once had high savings and are now ageing.

Second, investment needs are rising. Artificial intelligence and new digital technologies are extremely capital-intensive, and Africa, too, will require massive funds over the next 20 years to provide employment for its population that will likely double.

“Those are three factors which are going to push the interest rates higher on a real basis, independently of monetary policy,” he said.

It will likely force both governments and investors to be more choosy about their spending and investments, and will reward good macroeconomic management.

“Markets are going to be more selective than before,” he said.

Reflecting that investors are pricing in more risks, the yield on 10-year government bonds in the US has jumped 49 bps in the past one month to 5.27%, the highest since 2002. In France, it has risen by 67 bps, in Italy by 46 bps and in the UK by 25 bps. In India, 10-year yields have risen about 25 bps, largely tracking global moves amid the West Asia crisis.

The growth part is welcome, he said. “We want strong growth, so we want pro-growth policies everywhere as possible.”

As for the risk premium, it can be lowered by being predictable and stable, with ability to project policy in the long run.

On the growing debate on de-dollarisation, given the alleged weaponisation of the currency by the US, Landau said while there are questions about the dollar, there are not many alternatives to it at this stage.

“Therefore, it’s kind of a situation where people don’t trust the dollar as much as they did, but they don’t have an alternative as a safe asset,” he said.

On UPI and crypto

Landau said India’s UPI (United Payments Interface) “should be a model for the world”, as he pitched for using digitalisation to promote more efficient, more inclusive and safer payments. Despite their flaws, competition from crypto may have pushed efficiency improvements in the payment system.

“India is clearly at the forefront. It has an excellent UPI system… Brazil, another big emerging economy, has the Pix payment system. Especially in Africa, prospects for digital payments will be enormous,” Landau said.

He, however, expressed concerns over cryptos like Bitcoin and Ether, saying they are “very interesting technologically” but “very incomplete monetarily” and very speculative.

“We should be cautious in giving general public access to this because we don’t want to expose too much retail investors to that,” he said.

AI could bring an upheaval in financial and monetary systems in the next 5-7 years, with cross-border impact, he said. “We are at the beginning,” he added.

On co-operation, risk areas

On the impact of rising advanced economy rates for emerging markets, including India, Landau said, while macroeconomic management of emerging markets has improved substantially in the past 15 years, raising their ability to absorb shocks from the advanced world, the main concern now is about lower international cooperation.

“If individually each country is better equipped to face shocks, ability to coordinate is much, much smaller than it was only five years ago. That would be my main concern.” The focus should be on fiscal consolidation, reserve management and fostering global cooperation to beat shocks, he suggested.

Landau stressed two global financial stability risks, beyond the public debt--rising private credit that is opaque and complex, and growth of non-bank financial intermediation. The opacity of private credit makes it hard to predict its course, he said.

Non-banks, meanwhile, have different dynamics from banks, are harder to monitor. They are also more prone to liquidity shocks, and are now much bigger holders of public debt, Landau said.

Harsh Kumar

Harsh Kumar is a policy reporter at Mint (HT Media Group), where he covers the Ministry of Commerce and Industry along with key departments of the Ministry of Finance, including the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) and the Department of Financial Services (DFS). With over five years of experience in business and economic journalism, he has developed strong expertise in tracking policy developments and their wider economic impact.He has previously worked with Business Standard, Moneycontrol, and Outlook Money, where he reported extensively on banking, financial services, and the broader economy. Over the years, he has built a reputation for delivering accurate, insightful, and impactful stories, supported by a keen eye for detail and a consistent track record of breaking exclusive news.An alumnus of Jamia Millia Islamia, Harsh closely follows regulatory changes and key economic trends shaping India’s financial and industrial landscape. His reporting aims to simplify complex policy issues for a wider audience while maintaining depth and credibility.Outside of work, he enjoys tracking policy developments, finding scoops, and travelling, reflecting his curiosity about how economic decisions shape everyday life.